ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

[fwbbreeze]

If this pile of POO messes up the Blue Angels show in Pensacola this weekend I am gonna be irked!!

[HeeBGBz]

I hope it makes it to Biloxi. We need a good soaking.

[Chigger_Lopez]

What do you big brained types think the chances of significant rain fall are for Palm Beach County or East coast of FL are?

[KWT]

Very messy set-up, shear is a problem for sure. The only thing I will say with regards to this system is how often have we seen highly sheared systems in the Gulf develop in June/July?

A surprisingly high number given how poor the background set-up is...

[MGC]

Hummm.....I've stared at the vis loop for a while and it sure does look like there is a weak closed low in the SE GOM with some convection associated with it. While the UL winds are not favorable there is a chance for some slow development.....MGC

[tropicwatch]

If the ULL moves NW and weakens, I think conditions in the upper levels will become more hospitable for development. As it is now some dry air is being pulled in from the SW.

Tropicwatch

[artist]

you mean Friday, right cycloneye? I know, we lost one day this week, with the holiday and all.

[KWT]

Hummm.....I've stared at the vis loop for a while and it sure does look like there is a weak closed low in the SE GOM with some convection associated with it. While the UL winds are not favorable there is a chance for some slow development.....MGC

Always a small chance when you have some sort of low pressure system. I'd be a touch surprised if it does develop but on the otherhand its certainly not that improbable either...

[cycloneye]

you mean Friday, right cycloneye? I know, we lost one day this week, with the holiday and all.

Yeah,I fixed it.

[Macrocane]

Though I don't think this system will become a tropical cyclone it reminds me alot to the scneario that we saw back on 2009 with Claudette, or was it different?

[Ivanhater]

If this pile of POO messes up the Blue Angels show in Pensacola this weekend I am gonna be irked!!

Amen! Any other weekend this would be welcome...but not when the blues are flying on the beach!!

[BigA]

ULL looks to be starting to move westward. Still think development chance is low, but if Barrry formed in 2007, this isn't impossible either.

[SouthFloridawx]

I don't think this system is going anywhere and with that tropical wave approaching in a couple days, should be interesting...

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

The water temps at Clearwater are 87 degrees. -so Gulf water temps are definitely in its favor.

[SouthFloridawx]

[KWT]

ULL looks to be starting to move westward. Still think development chance is low, but if Barrry formed in 2007, this isn't impossible either.

I think thats pretty much where I am at with regards to this system as well, Barry managed to get going in pretty poor conditions and whilst I don't think its likely, you never know something could develop!

[NDG]

ULL is giving it that subtropical look, at least for now. But it is still becoming better organized at the surface.

[wxman57]

I can see a very weak surface low near 25.5N/85W. But the nearby buoy has a pressure of only 1013.5mb, not very low. The low is in a high shear environment, and that isn't going to change soon. With moderate to strong southerly flow in the mid and upper levels, I'd expect the system to move north and inland into the Florida panhandle on Saturday. Development chances are low. 10% may not be a bad estimate, as per the NHC. Systems CAN develop in mdt-high shear, that's true. But this one may not be out there for more than 36-48 hrs.

As for the shuttle launch tomorrow, I'd say that's highly unlikely to occur. Lots of storms across the FL Peninsula tomorrow.

[Ivanhater]

What do you think about the Pensacola bay area wxman? We have that huge blue angel air show on Pensacola beach saturday. So far the pops are only about 30 percent, so most of the weather should be east of us?

[ronjon]

Well, two models have been predicting low pressure developing, especially the Euro and NAM for that last several days so kudos to them. I won't include the CMC since it was focused on the east coast of FL. Latest SHIPs has it a 44 kt storm in 48 hrs near panhandle. I see a sheared, subtropical-like storm prior to landfall with all the heavy weather on the east side of the circulation. Could be Bret in 24-36 hrs.