EPAC: ADRIAN - Tropical Depression

[CrazyC83]

I would expect this to be a TD by tomorrow afternoon.

[Chacor]

EP, 91, 2011060600, , BEST, 0, 106N, 982W, 25, 1007, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 175, 90, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

[dwsqos2]

Thank goodness it's hideous at the moment. There's nothing worse than a pointless EPAC tc.

[Florida1118]

Thank goodness it's hideous at the moment. There's nothing worse than a pointless EPAC tc.

Its not hideous...90% inst hideous by a long shot. And why are they pointless? They are much more fun to watch and observe, since only a few like to hit mexico...you can enjoy natures shows without any devistation...I dont think thats pointless by any means.

[dwsqos2]

Might want to look at a recent satellite image instead of using NHC probabilities as a proxy for appearance. At the moment low-level convergence is kind of lacking; convection has weakened tremendously over the past few hours.

Pointlessness is arbitrary, but generally speaking tropical cyclones in that region mean westerly low level winds over Nino regions 1+2. Nevermind that, put a decent anticyclone over a tc in that region, and the result will be westerly or northwesterly upper-level winds over a portion of the Caribbean. Yeah, I hope it doesn't form.

[KWT]

ECM still develops this into quite a a strong system in the 4-5 day period and most moedels are keen on it as wlell.

[Chacor]

ABPZ20 KNHC 061139
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON JUN 6 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 425 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO CONTINUES TO SHOW
SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[dwsqos2]

Well, it looks better this morning. Vomit. It's such a shame.

[Florida1118]

Well, it looks better this morning. Vomit. It's such a shame.

Thats pretty dramatic and im not getting why such a response is needed for a simple Invest...

[RL3AO]

Well, it looks better this morning. Vomit. It's such a shame.

You don't actually have to post in this thread because you don't like "boring" storms that don't ruin peoples lives.

[srainhoutx]

Back on topic folks.

[Chacor]

OHC, SST and shear continue to be extremely good for development, but SHIPS no longer makes it a hurricane within 5 days.

Code: Select all

                    *   EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST   *
                    * GOES AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE       *
                    *      INVEST  EP912011  06/06/11  12 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    25    26    27    29    32    38    43    49    53    55    56    59    59
V (KT) LAND       25    26    27    29    32    38    43    49    53    55    56    59    59
V (KT) LGE mod    25    25    26    27    28    32    34    36    39    41    43    46    48

SHEAR (KT)         6     8     8     8     6     3     1     3     7     4     3     9     5
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     0    -1    -1    -1    -2     0     2     1     3     5     2     0     2
SHEAR DIR         91    98   118   143   167   217   202   358   304    29    53    45    54
SST (C)         29.6  29.7  29.9  30.0  30.1  30.2  30.1  29.9  29.5  29.2  28.8  28.5  28.4
POT. INT. (KT)   158   160   162   163   163   165   165   162   158   154   150   145   144
200 MB T (C)   -53.3 -52.9 -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -52.0 -52.2 -50.9 -51.0 -50.6 -51.2 -50.5 -51.0
TH_E DEV (C)       7     8     8     8     7     8     7     9     8     9     8    10     9
700-500 MB RH     72    69    68    66    63    61    55    51    48    47    47    44    43
GFS VTEX (KT)     10    10    11    11    12    12    13    14    16    15    15    16    16
850 MB ENV VOR    14    21    18    15    15    16     5     5     3    11     9    10     5
200 MB DIV        24     6    13    40    51    62    50    82    71    27    27    22    -7
700-850 TADV       0     0     0     0     0     0     0    -3    -6    -2     0     0     0
LAND (KM)        563   531   498   469   445   410   344   282   255   226   252   268   260
LAT (DEG N)     10.9  11.3  11.6  12.0  12.3  12.9  13.9  14.9  15.7  16.2  16.5  16.7  16.9
LONG(DEG W)     98.3  98.6  98.9  99.3  99.6 100.2 101.0 101.9 102.9 103.8 104.8 105.3 105.4
STM SPEED (KT)     3     5     5     5     4     5     7     6     6     5     4     2     1
HEAT CONTENT      40    48    55    58    59    61    28    58    41    40    34    29    27

  FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/  1      CX,CY:   0/  1
  T-12 MAX WIND:  25            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  595  (MEAN=581)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  18.6 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  43.0 (MEAN=65.0)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.  -1.   0.   1.   7.  15.  23.  31.  35.  38.  40.  42.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.  10.  11.  11.  12.  12.  12.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     1.   1.   2.   2.   1.  -1.  -2.  -4.  -3.  -2.  -1.  -1.
  PERSISTENCE            0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -3.  -5.  -6.  -7.  -8.  -9.  -9.  -8.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.
  GFS VORTEX TENDENCY    0.   0.   1.   2.   2.   5.   6.   8.   7.   7.   9.   8.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -5.  -5.  -5.  -5.  -5.  -5.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  GOES PREDICTORS        0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -4.  -6.  -7.  -7.  -8.  -8.  -8.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   1.   2.   3.   4.   4.   4.   3.   3.   3.   2.   1.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           1.   2.   4.   7.  13.  18.  24.  28.  30.  32.  34.  34.

   ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912011     INVEST 06/06/11  12 UTC **
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   0.0 Range:-20.0 to  35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.7
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :   6.9 Range: 17.0 to   1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  0.9
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  18.6 Range: 35.4 to   2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.7
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  52.0 Range:  0.0 to  67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  0.8
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 136.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val:  1.0/  0.8
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  26.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.2
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  36.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.1/  0.1
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  71.0 Range: 64.0 to  88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.0
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    29% is   2.5 times the sample mean(11.7%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    24% is   3.1 times the sample mean( 7.9%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=     2% is   0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%)
 Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=     1% is   0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912011     INVEST 06/06/11  12 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##


[HURAKAN]

looks like it could be TD 1-E later today

[Cyclenall]

For 91E, I didn't follow it very closely until today and it appears it could blow up later today and pull a John like in 2006. It has the exact same look as one of those storms in 2006 when the system was still an invest and it intensified extremely rapidly until it reached 70 knots. I think it will strengthen quickly as a TS and then level out once it reaches it's destiny of Hurricane Adrian.

Yeah this one looks like the first tropical cyclone of 2011 for the North American region.

I tend to say "The first tropical cyclone in the western hemisphere for 2011".

Thank goodness it's hideous at the moment. There's nothing worse than a pointless EPAC tc.

There is something worse and it's called "No Activity" .

Thank goodness it's hideous at the moment. There's nothing worse than a pointless EPAC tc.

Its not hideous...90% inst hideous by a long shot. And why are they pointless? They are much more fun to watch and observe, since only a few like to hit mexico...you can enjoy natures shows without any devistation...I dont think thats pointless by any means.

That's precisely why he called it pointless.

Pointlessness is arbitrary, but generally speaking tropical cyclones in that region mean westerly low level winds over Nino regions 1+2. Nevermind that, put a decent anticyclone over a tc in that region, and the result will be westerly or northwesterly upper-level winds over a portion of the Caribbean. Yeah, I hope it doesn't form.

There has been systems in both that region and the Caribbean (western and western Gulf) concurrently hasn't there? I think it's possible without too much interaction but it does occur.

[HURAKAN]

The convection remains weak

[cycloneye]

Up to 100%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON JUN 6 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 425 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO CONTINUES TO SHOW
SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS
IT DRIFTS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART

[somethingfunny]

Well, it looks better this morning. Vomit. It's such a shame.

You don't actually have to post in this thread because you don't like "boring" storms that don't ruin peoples lives.

I think this one has a pretty good shot at ruining somebody's life unfortunately. The models are keen on recurving this towards a landfall and the unseasonably massive trough off of California backs that premise up.

[RL3AO]

Early on, I think the NHC might be changing up on they apply the percentages. I don't think that this would have gotten 90% how it was yesterday and certainly not gotten a 100% unless it was basically already a TC. Remember that its near 100% that it will form in the next 48 hours which is probably right.

[KWT]

Almost certainly will be our first TD of the season within the next 6-12hrs, looks good at the moment, though convection is a little on the weak side for now.

[HURAKAN]

beautiful structure, only needs deep convection