SIO: CARLOS (17U/15S) - Tropical Cyclone
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Current presentation and the winds obs that have already been observed both are suggestive of a 35kts system, so I fully expect this to get upgraded soon...
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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Extratropical94
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It seems to have reached storm strength, since it is now called 15S.
Quite surprising that the JTWC has not issued an advisory so far, aren't they the ones who decide when to upgrade an invest to a storm? (besides the BOM where the "official" warnings are made)
Quite surprising that the JTWC has not issued an advisory so far, aren't they the ones who decide when to upgrade an invest to a storm? (besides the BOM where the "official" warnings are made)
Last edited by Extratropical94 on Tue Feb 15, 2011 4:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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54° 11' 59'' N, 9° 9' 20'' E
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
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TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 2045 UTC 15/02/2011
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 17U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 12.4S
Longitude: 130.6E
Location Accuracy: within 25 nm [45 km]
Movement Towards: north [000 deg]
Speed of Movement: 4 knots [7 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 997 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: over land
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1007 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar:
Storm Depth:
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 16/0600: 11.9S 130.5E: 060 [110]: 035 [065]: 998
+24: 16/1800: 11.7S 130.3E: 090 [165]: 040 [075]: 996
+36: 17/0600: 11.7S 130.0E: 125 [230]: 045 [085]: 993
+48: 17/1800: 11.8S 129.7E: 155 [285]: 050 [095]: 990
+60: 18/0600: 12.1S 129.4E: 205 [375]: 050 [095]: 989
+72: 18/1800: 12.5S 129.2E: 250 [465]: 070 [130]: 986
REMARKS:
The tropical low continues to intensify with a strong rainband and curvature on
radar, central convection having developed since 1200 UTC as the centre moved
over the coast. Position good based on surface observations and radar, with an
eye becoming evident on radar. Pilot data from Darwin Airport at 1200 UTC data
read NW 50-60kt below 7000ft with surface winds reaching 30kt and gusting 55 kt
in squalls. Convective structure improving with 0.3 wrap of deep convection,
yielding DT=2.0. FT based on PT=MET=2.5. Darwin experiencing very heavy rainfall
with northern suburbs recording 200-400mm since 9am and near gales observed at
the Airport with gusts to 50 knots.
A well-developed circulation is evident to 500hPa, displaced slightly to the N
or NW in middle levels. Deep convection limited to northern semicircle. Strongly
divergent 200hPa flow over the system ahead of a weak upper trough to the south;
good outflow in northern sectors.
The consensus of numerical guidance suggests a slow northward progression
towards the Tiwi Islands during the next 24 to 48 hours, under the influence of
a strengthening low-level subtropical ridge to the south. Standard development
rate forecast after the system moves over water.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 16/0130 UTC by Darwin TCWC.
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 2045 UTC 15/02/2011
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 17U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 12.4S
Longitude: 130.6E
Location Accuracy: within 25 nm [45 km]
Movement Towards: north [000 deg]
Speed of Movement: 4 knots [7 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 997 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: over land
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1007 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar:
Storm Depth:
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 16/0600: 11.9S 130.5E: 060 [110]: 035 [065]: 998
+24: 16/1800: 11.7S 130.3E: 090 [165]: 040 [075]: 996
+36: 17/0600: 11.7S 130.0E: 125 [230]: 045 [085]: 993
+48: 17/1800: 11.8S 129.7E: 155 [285]: 050 [095]: 990
+60: 18/0600: 12.1S 129.4E: 205 [375]: 050 [095]: 989
+72: 18/1800: 12.5S 129.2E: 250 [465]: 070 [130]: 986
REMARKS:
The tropical low continues to intensify with a strong rainband and curvature on
radar, central convection having developed since 1200 UTC as the centre moved
over the coast. Position good based on surface observations and radar, with an
eye becoming evident on radar. Pilot data from Darwin Airport at 1200 UTC data
read NW 50-60kt below 7000ft with surface winds reaching 30kt and gusting 55 kt
in squalls. Convective structure improving with 0.3 wrap of deep convection,
yielding DT=2.0. FT based on PT=MET=2.5. Darwin experiencing very heavy rainfall
with northern suburbs recording 200-400mm since 9am and near gales observed at
the Airport with gusts to 50 knots.
A well-developed circulation is evident to 500hPa, displaced slightly to the N
or NW in middle levels. Deep convection limited to northern semicircle. Strongly
divergent 200hPa flow over the system ahead of a weak upper trough to the south;
good outflow in northern sectors.
The consensus of numerical guidance suggests a slow northward progression
towards the Tiwi Islands during the next 24 to 48 hours, under the influence of
a strengthening low-level subtropical ridge to the south. Standard development
rate forecast after the system moves over water.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 16/0130 UTC by Darwin TCWC.
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HURAKAN
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TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 6
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 4:38 am CST Wednesday 16 February 2011
A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal areas from Daly River Mouth to Point
Stuart, including Darwin and the Tiwi Islands.
A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal areas from Port Keats to Daly River Mouth
and Point Stuart to Goulburn Island.
At 3:30 am CST a Tropical Low was located near the coast about 30 kilometres
west of Darwin and 110 kilometres south of Snake Bay and moving north at 7
kilometres per hour. The low is expected to move into the Beagle Gulf this
morning and may develop into a tropical cyclone later today.
LOCALLY DAMAGING wind gusts up to 100 kilometres per hour are being experienced
with squally showers and storms in the northwest Darwin-Daly District and the
Tiwi Islands.
GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour are expected to develop between Daly
River Mouth and Point Stuart, including Darwin and the Tiwi Islands, later
today.
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 130 kilometres per hour may develop over the
Tiwi Islands late Thursday if the system continues to intensify.
HEAVY RAIN may cause widespread flooding in the northern Darwin-Daly District
and the Tiwi Islands.
The Territory Controller advises residents from Daly River Mouth to Point Stuart
including the Tiwi Islands that now is the time to make final preparations to
your home shelter or identify which public emergency shelter to use.
Residents of Darwin and the Rural Area are advised that if you DO NOT have
accommodation constructed to the Building Code or are unsure of your present
accommodation you should decide which public emergency shelter to use. You
should now have your emergency kit complete and ready. DO NOT PROCEED TO PUBLIC
EMERGENCY SHELTERS UNTIL ADVISED TO DO SO.
The Territory Controller advises communities under Cyclone Watch that now is the
time to put together your emergency kit, clear your yards and balconies, and
commence home shelter preparations.
Details of Tropical Low at 3:30 am CST:
.Centre located near...... 12.4 degrees South 130.6 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 45 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the north at 7 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 997 hectoPascals
Please ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message,
particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.
The next advice will be issued by 8:00 am CST Wednesday 16 February.
This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211
DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 6
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 4:38 am CST Wednesday 16 February 2011
A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal areas from Daly River Mouth to Point
Stuart, including Darwin and the Tiwi Islands.
A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal areas from Port Keats to Daly River Mouth
and Point Stuart to Goulburn Island.
At 3:30 am CST a Tropical Low was located near the coast about 30 kilometres
west of Darwin and 110 kilometres south of Snake Bay and moving north at 7
kilometres per hour. The low is expected to move into the Beagle Gulf this
morning and may develop into a tropical cyclone later today.
LOCALLY DAMAGING wind gusts up to 100 kilometres per hour are being experienced
with squally showers and storms in the northwest Darwin-Daly District and the
Tiwi Islands.
GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour are expected to develop between Daly
River Mouth and Point Stuart, including Darwin and the Tiwi Islands, later
today.
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 130 kilometres per hour may develop over the
Tiwi Islands late Thursday if the system continues to intensify.
HEAVY RAIN may cause widespread flooding in the northern Darwin-Daly District
and the Tiwi Islands.
The Territory Controller advises residents from Daly River Mouth to Point Stuart
including the Tiwi Islands that now is the time to make final preparations to
your home shelter or identify which public emergency shelter to use.
Residents of Darwin and the Rural Area are advised that if you DO NOT have
accommodation constructed to the Building Code or are unsure of your present
accommodation you should decide which public emergency shelter to use. You
should now have your emergency kit complete and ready. DO NOT PROCEED TO PUBLIC
EMERGENCY SHELTERS UNTIL ADVISED TO DO SO.
The Territory Controller advises communities under Cyclone Watch that now is the
time to put together your emergency kit, clear your yards and balconies, and
commence home shelter preparations.
Details of Tropical Low at 3:30 am CST:
.Centre located near...... 12.4 degrees South 130.6 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 45 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the north at 7 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 997 hectoPascals
Please ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message,
particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.
The next advice will be issued by 8:00 am CST Wednesday 16 February.
This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211
DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
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Extratropical94
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Post can be deleted (two posts with same content)
Last edited by Extratropical94 on Tue Feb 15, 2011 4:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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54° 11' 59'' N, 9° 9' 20'' E
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
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WTXS32 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/150721Z//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 000
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 12.3S 130.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.3S 130.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 12.0S 130.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 12.0S 130.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 12.2S 130.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 12.7S 129.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 13.8S 128.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 14.9S 127.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 16.5S 125.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 12.2S 130.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 15 NM NORTHWEST OF
DARWIN, AUSTRALIA HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD OVER WATER AT 02 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A RADAR
LOOP FROM DARWIN DEPICTS A TIGHTLY WRAPPED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE RADAR LOOP. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SURFACE LEVEL PRESSURE OBSERVATIONS AT DARWIN
OF 995 MB. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 15S IS LOCATED IN AN
AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM
IS SLOWLY TRACKING UNDER A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. AT THIS TIME, A
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH SHOULD BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN,
ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD AND REACH LAND
AROUND TAU 96. TC 15S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY WHILE OVER WARM WATER
AND DUE TO THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, ALTHOUGH EGRR AND ECMWF LOOP THE
SYSTEM FARTHER EASTWARD IN THE INITIAL TAUS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES
AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 150721Z FEB 11 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTXS22 PGTW 150730) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 151800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z AND 162100Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (BINGIZA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
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HURAKAN
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Re:
Craiga74 wrote:Amazing rainfall totals with this system....Marrara which is not too far from Darwin Airport has recorded 423mm in the 24hrs to 9am
wow, that's incredible. For our US members, 423 mm is equal to 16.65 inches of rain.
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HURAKAN
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Link : http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-na ... 1avn0.html
4 people have been rescued due to the flooding caused by the torrential downpours
4 people have been rescued due to the flooding caused by the torrential downpours
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HURAKAN
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TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 8
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 11:00 am CST Wednesday 16 February 2011
A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal areas from Daly River Mouth to
Goulburn Island, including Darwin, Croker Island and the Tiwi Islands.
A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal areas from Port Keats to Daly River Mouth.
At 9:30 am CST Tropical Cyclone Carlos, Category 1 was estimated to be 3
kilometres northeast of Darwin and 110 kilometres south southeast of Snake Bay
and moving northeast at 5 kilometres per hour.
The cyclone is expected to take a south or southwestward track tomorrow after
moving slowly into the Beagle Gulf today.
GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour are currently being experienced on
the coast between Darwin and Point Stuart. GALES are expected to develop over
the southern Tiwi Islands later today, and may extend further south to Daly
River Mouth tonight and as far as Port Keats on Thursday.
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 130 kilometres per hour may develop over the
southern Tiwi Islands early Thursday if the system continues to intensify.
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 130 kilometres per hour may extend to the coast
between Darwin and Daly River Mouth later Thursday or early Friday.
GALES may develop between Point Stuart and Goulburn Island, including Croker
Island tonight, if the cyclone takes a more easterly track.
Tides will be HIGHER THAN NORMAL between Point Stuart and Daly River Mouth,
including the Tiwi Islands. Large waves may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying
coastal areas.
HEAVY RAIN is causing widespread flooding in the northern Darwin-Daly District
and the Tiwi Islands.
The Territory Controller advises residents from Daly River Mouth to Goulburn
Island including the Tiwi Islands and Croker Island that now is the time to make
final preparations to your home shelter or identify which public emergency
shelter to use.
Residents of Darwin and the Rural Area are advised that if you DO NOT have
accommodation constructed to the Building Code or are unsure of your present
accommodation you should decide which public emergency shelter to use. You
should now have your emergency kit complete and ready. DO NOT PROCEED TO PUBLIC
EMERGENCY SHELTERS UNTIL ADVISED TO DO SO. CYCLONE SHELTERS ARE NOT OPEN AT THIS
TIME.
The Territory Controller advises communities under Cyclone Watch that now is the
time to put together your emergency kit, clear your yards and balconies, and
commence home shelter preparations.
Details of Tropical Cyclone Carlos at 9:30 am CST:
.Centre located near...... 12.4 degrees South 130.9 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 30 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the northeast at 5 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 95 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 1
.Central pressure......... 996 hectoPascals
Please ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message,
particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.
The next advice will be issued by 2:00 pm CST Wednesday 16 February.
This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211
DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 8
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 11:00 am CST Wednesday 16 February 2011
A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal areas from Daly River Mouth to
Goulburn Island, including Darwin, Croker Island and the Tiwi Islands.
A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal areas from Port Keats to Daly River Mouth.
At 9:30 am CST Tropical Cyclone Carlos, Category 1 was estimated to be 3
kilometres northeast of Darwin and 110 kilometres south southeast of Snake Bay
and moving northeast at 5 kilometres per hour.
The cyclone is expected to take a south or southwestward track tomorrow after
moving slowly into the Beagle Gulf today.
GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour are currently being experienced on
the coast between Darwin and Point Stuart. GALES are expected to develop over
the southern Tiwi Islands later today, and may extend further south to Daly
River Mouth tonight and as far as Port Keats on Thursday.
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 130 kilometres per hour may develop over the
southern Tiwi Islands early Thursday if the system continues to intensify.
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 130 kilometres per hour may extend to the coast
between Darwin and Daly River Mouth later Thursday or early Friday.
GALES may develop between Point Stuart and Goulburn Island, including Croker
Island tonight, if the cyclone takes a more easterly track.
Tides will be HIGHER THAN NORMAL between Point Stuart and Daly River Mouth,
including the Tiwi Islands. Large waves may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying
coastal areas.
HEAVY RAIN is causing widespread flooding in the northern Darwin-Daly District
and the Tiwi Islands.
The Territory Controller advises residents from Daly River Mouth to Goulburn
Island including the Tiwi Islands and Croker Island that now is the time to make
final preparations to your home shelter or identify which public emergency
shelter to use.
Residents of Darwin and the Rural Area are advised that if you DO NOT have
accommodation constructed to the Building Code or are unsure of your present
accommodation you should decide which public emergency shelter to use. You
should now have your emergency kit complete and ready. DO NOT PROCEED TO PUBLIC
EMERGENCY SHELTERS UNTIL ADVISED TO DO SO. CYCLONE SHELTERS ARE NOT OPEN AT THIS
TIME.
The Territory Controller advises communities under Cyclone Watch that now is the
time to put together your emergency kit, clear your yards and balconies, and
commence home shelter preparations.
Details of Tropical Cyclone Carlos at 9:30 am CST:
.Centre located near...... 12.4 degrees South 130.9 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 30 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the northeast at 5 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 95 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 1
.Central pressure......... 996 hectoPascals
Please ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message,
particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.
The next advice will be issued by 2:00 pm CST Wednesday 16 February.
This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211
DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
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