SPO: ATU (11F/17P) Tropical Cyclone

[cycloneye]

What will be the name if it is classified as a Tropical Cyclone?

[Extratropical94]

That would be Atu (or Errol if it decided to move into the Aussie basin before intensifying).

[cycloneye]

That would be Atu (or Errol if it decided to move into the Aussie basin before intensifying).

Either way,it's a matter of time that we will see a named TC from this as conditions are favorable.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[cycloneye]

Upgraded to fair

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.0S
170.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.1S 169.0E, APPROXIMATELY 140 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF VANUATU. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
CONSOLIDATING DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. A 171848Z 89H TRMM MICROWAVE SHOWS CONVECTIVE
BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE LLCC FROM THE SOUTHERN QUADRANTS.
A 171039Z ASCAT PASS INDICATES A WEAK LOW LEVEL WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT
WINDS AT THE CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS
LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF AN ANTICYCLONE IN A REGION OF STRONG
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (<20 KNOTS). MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. WHILE THE LLCC IS
FAIRLY WEAK AND THEIR REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN THE CURRENT POSITION,
THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS EXTREMELY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT,
THEREFORE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.

[GCANE]

A hot tower over LLC.

Very good chance for RI soon.

[GCANE]

A 5.8 quake just fired off closeby

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/ ... 001g7g.php

Magnitude 5.8

Date-Time Thursday, February 17, 2011 at 20:51:06 UTC

Friday, February 18, 2011 at 07:51:06 AM at epicenter

Location 14.228°S, 166.366°E

Depth 34.4 km (21.4 miles) set by location program

Region VANUATU
Distances 170 km (105 miles) NNW of Luganville, Espiritu Santo, Vanuatu
390 km (245 miles) S of Lata, Santa Cruz Islands, Solomon Isl.
440 km (275 miles) NNW of PORT-VILA, Efate, Vanuatu
2010 km (1250 miles) NE of BRISBANE, Queensland, Australia

[HURAKAN]

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 18/0002 UTC 2011 UTC.

*****CORRECTION TO DEPRESSION POSITION*****

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD11F [1002 HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 14.9S 169.1E AT
172100 UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT VIS/IR IMAGERY
WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES.

ORGANISATION HAS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED. DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN
THE LAST 6 HOURS. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS TO 500HPA. SYSTEM LIES
UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE IN A MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND GRADUALLY MOVE IT
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A1 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 18/0428 UTC 2011 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11F CENTRE 1000 HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8S 169.0E
AT 180000 UTC.
POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR/VIS IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHWEST ABOUT 04 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 25 KNOTS.

ORGANISATION IMPROVED PAST 24 HOURS WITH PRIMARY BANDS TRYING TO WRAP
AROUND LLCC FROM SOUTHERN QUADRANT BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHRERE DUE TO
MODERATE SHEAR. CONVECTION INCREASED IN THE PAST 6 HOURS WITH VIS
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CONSOLIDATED DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING
OVER LLCC. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS FROM SURFACE TO 500HPA. SST
AROUND 30 DEGREE CELSIUS. SYSTEM LIES ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH AND
UNDER AN UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION. SYSTEM STEERED SOUTHWEST BY EASTERLY
DEEP LAYER MEAN REGIME. CIMSS ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK SHEAR TO NORTH
AND SOUTH OF SYSTEM. MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO SOUTH OF SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN AND RECEDE TO THE WEST AS SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH. DVORAK
ASSESMENT BASED ON 0.3 WRAP ON LOG 10 SPIRAL YIELDING DT=1.5 PT=1.5
FT BASED ON DT, THUS T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS.
GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT BEFORE MOVING IT
SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.

FORECAST:
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 181200 UTC 15.5S 169.0W MOV S AT 03 KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 190000 UTC 16.3S 169.2W MOV S AT 03 KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 191200 UTC 16.8S 169.5E MOV S AT 03 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 200000 UTC 17.3S 169.8W MOV SSE AT 03 KT WITH 40
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD 11F WILL BE ISSUED AT
AROUND 180800 UTC OR EARLIER.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.0S 169.1E TO 17.9S 171.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 180500Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.7S 169.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.1S
169.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.7S 169.4E, APPROXIMATELY 195 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION WITH A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND CONVECTIVE BANDING WEST WRAPPING INTO
THE NORTH QUADRANT. A 180249Z AMSU IMAGE DEPICTS DEEP, CURVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT WITH WEAKER BANDING
NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. A 172144Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS AN
ELONGATED BUT DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 25-30 KNOT WINDS; OVERALL,
THE CIRCULATION HAS SLOWLY STRENGTHENED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE
LLCC IS LOCATED UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WITH GOOD
EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED AND
IS BEING ENHANCED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 23S 153E (EAST COAST OF
AUSTRALIA) AND UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. BASED ON THE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND EXCELLENT OUTFLOW, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS GOOD.

[GCANE]

Core looks good to go.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A2 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 18/0834 UTC 2011 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11F CENTRE 999 HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1S 169.2E
AT 180600 UTC.
POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR/VIS IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. DEPRESSION SLOW MOVING. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE
WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 25 KNOTS.


ORGANISATION IMPROVED PAST 24 HOURS WITH PRIMARY BANDS STRUGGLING TO
WRAP AROUND LLCC. CONVECTION HAS NOT INCREASED MUCH IN THE PAST 6
HOURS. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS FROM SURFACE TO 500HPA. SST
AROUND 30 DEGREE CELSIUS. SYSTEM LIES ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH AND
UNDER AN UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION. SYSTEM SLIGHTLY STEERED SOUTH
SOUTHEAST BY A WEAK NORTHWEST DEEP LAYER MEAN REGIME. CIMSS ANALYSIS
INDICATES WEAK SHEAR TO SOUTH OF SYSTEM AND STRONG SHEAR OVER THE
SYSTEM. MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO SOUTH OF SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND
RETROGRESS TO THE WEST AS SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH. DVORAK ASSESMENT BASED
ON 0.3 WRAP ON LOG 10 SPIRAL YIELDING DT=2.0, MET=2.0 PT=2.0 FT
BASED ON DT, THUS T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS.
GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTH-SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT BEFORE MOVING IT
SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.

FORECAST:
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 181800 UTC 15.9S 169.5W MOV SSE AT 05 KT WITH 30
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 190600 UTC 16.8S 169.7W MOV SSE AT 05 KT WITH 35
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 191800 UTC 17.2S 170.1E MOV SSE AT 03 KT WITH 40
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 200600 UTC 17.8S 170.8W MOV SE AT 05 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD 11F WILL BE ISSUED AT
AROUND 181400 UTC OR EARLIER.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[cycloneye]

The latest.



Uploaded by imageshack.us

[cycloneye]

18/1432 UTC 15.0S 169.4E T2.5/2.5 90P -- Southwest Pacific

35kts.

[P.K.]

No upgrade at 18Z.

WOPS01 NFFN 181800
GALE WARNING 007 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 18/1905 UTC 2011 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD11F CENTRE 997HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6S 169.6E AT 181800
UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR.

EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 60 TO 180 NAUTICAL MILES AWAY FROM
CENTRE IN THE SECTOR FROM NORTH THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHEAST.

AREA OF GALES MOVING WITH DEPRESSION.

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 006.

[cycloneye]

The latest image shows organization is continuing.

[HURAKAN]

Impressive microwave image

[HURAKAN]

Latest visible