SIO: BINGIZA (05R/13S) - Moderate Tropical Storm

[HURAKAN]

latest consensus

[KWT]

Yeah its looking better organised now Hurakan, think it probably will strengthen quite a bit more in the next 48hrs as well from the looks of conditions out there.

[Crostorm]

[HURAKAN]

Getting better organized by the hour

[KWT]

Yeah thats developing abit of a classic look, I'd say 45kts right based on those images above Hurakan, decent looking system!

[HURAKAN]

TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE BINGIZA

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 996 HPA.
POSITION LE 09 FEVRIER A 22 HEURES LOCALES: 13.7 SUD / 54.6 EST
(TREIZE DEGRES SEPT SUD ET CINQUANTE-QUATRE DEGRES SIX EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES: 800 KM AU NORD
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST A 9 KM/H.

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE
AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS

TEMP. TROP. MODEREE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 14.2S/54.1E
FORTE TEMP. TROP., CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 15.1S/54.1E
CYCLONE TROPICAL, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 16.3S/53.8E

ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER
AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE
LA POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON EXTENSION.

PROCHAIN BULLETIN BULLETIN DEMAIN VERS 4H30

[HURAKAN]

24 hour loop - really shows how the system has organized

[HURAKAN]

the old graphics were far better

[HURAKAN]

NRL : TC 13S (40 knots)



Latest

[CrazyC83]

Slow season in the SW Indian Ocean...lots of shear there?

[HURAKAN]

09/1930 UTC 13.3S 54.4E T2.5/2.5 94S -- Southwest Indian

35 knots

[HURAKAN]

WTXS31 PGTW 092100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (BINGIZA) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/091421Z FEB 11//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (BINGIZA) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 13.6S 54.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.6S 54.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 13.5S 54.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 13.6S 54.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 13.7S 54.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 13.8S 54.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 14.3S 53.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 15.2S 53.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 16.8S 51.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
092100Z POSITION NEAR 13.6S 54.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (BINGIZA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 460 NM
NORTH OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED NORTHWEST AT 04 KNOTS DURING THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
CONVECTION IS CONSOLIDATING AND INTENSIFYING. A 091612Z SSMI
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE
WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEVELOPING
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL DUE TO THE APPROACH OF A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ALTHOUGH SOME SUPPRESSION OF OUTFLOW IS
OCCURRING OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, OUTFLOW IS WELL-DEVELOPED ON
THE EQUATORWARD SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. TC 13S IS DRIFTING SLOWLY
WESTWARD UNDER WEAK STEERING FLOW. IT IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER AND
INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 48 DUE TO A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND
FAVORABLE DYNAMICS ALOFT. SATELLITE-DERIVED SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
IN THE REGION ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, RANGING FROM 29 TO 31
DEGREES CELSIUS. MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT DUE TO
THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THE FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO MODEL
CONSENSUS WITH SOME WEIGHTING TOWARDS THE NOGAPS AND GFDN SOLUTIONS.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS AT THE HIGHER END OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
BECAUSE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR RAPID
STRENGTHENING. A DEEP SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER
MADAGASCAR BETWEEN TAU 60 AND TAU 84 WILL AGAIN STRENGTHEN POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AND INCREASE THE POSSIBILITY FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF TC
13S. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z AND 102100Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND
CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 091421Z FEB 11 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 091430).//
NNNN

[P.K.]

the old graphics were far better

I was going to ask has anyone found any decent track images? The flash based ones are awful. There was nothing wrong with the old ones!

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 038
WTIO30 FMEE 100133
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 4/5/20102011
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BINGIZA)
2.A POSITION 2011/02/10 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.5S / 54.2E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL TWO DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-NORTH-WEST 5 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 991 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 40 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 180 SE: 150 SO: 220 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 070 SE: 070 SO: 070 NO: 070
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1003 HPA / 650 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2011/02/10 12 UTC: 13.2S/54.0E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP.
STORM.
24H: 2011/02/11 00 UTC: 12.9S/54.3E, MAX WIND=045KT , MODERATE TROP.
STORM.
36H: 2011/02/11 12 UTC: 13.2S/54.7E, MAX WIND=050KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM.
48H: 2011/02/12 00 UTC: 13.7S/54.8E, MAX WIND=060KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM.
60H: 2011/02/12 12 UTC: 14.1S/54.8E, MAX WIND=065KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE.
72H: 2011/02/13 00 UTC: 14.9S/54.7E, MAX WIND=075KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE.
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 14/02/2011 00 UTC: 16.8S/54.4E, MAX WIND=085KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE.
120H: 15/02/2011 00 UTC: 20.1S/52.6E, MAX WIND=085KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE.
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=3.0
AFTER A RAPID INTENSIFICATION DURING THE END OF THE DAY, BINGIZA SEEMS TO
UNDERGO THE EASTERLY WINDSHEAR VISIBLE ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
(ARC OF CIRRUS ON THE EASTERN PART OF THE SYSTEM). FROM THE LATEST HOURS,
CONVECTION HAS SLIGHTY DECREASED NEAR THE CENTRE (SUMMITS LESS COLD).
AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT FOR THE EXPECTED TRACKS.
HOWEVER, THEY AGREE FOR AN ERRATIC TRACK WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS INDUCED
BY CONTRADICTORY MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOWS. BEYOND, AMERICAN AND UKMO NWP
MODELS FORECAST A SOUTHWARD TRACK TOWARDS MADAGASCAR WHILE CEP AND
ARPEGE MODELS FOREC
AST A SOUTHWARD TRACK AND THEN SOUTH-SOUTHWARD TRACK BY CEP.
CONSEQUENTLY CMRS FINAL FORECAST HAS BEEN MODIFIED IN REGARD WITH THE
PREVIOUS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN LATER ITS SOUTHWARD TRACK TOWARDS A MID
-LATITUDE DEEP TROUGH PRESENT IN THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM NEAR 50E. BEFORE
, EASTERLY WINDSHEAR SHOULD RESTRICT ITS INTENSIFICATION. AFTER THAT,
UPPER LEVEL CO
NDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH LOWER SHEAR AND GOOD
OUTFLOW SPECIALLY POLEWARDS. THEREFORE, A STRONGER INTENSIFICATION RATE
IS EXPECTED BY THAT TIME.
INHABITANTS OF MASCARENES ISLANDS AND THE EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR
SHOULD CLOSELY FOLLOW THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM.
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

the old graphics were far better

I was going to ask has anyone found any decent track images? The flash based ones are awful. There was nothing wrong with the old ones!

The old tracks were excellent, I don't know why they changed them. The new ones are horrible. I can't find any other alternative.

[HURAKAN]

10/0230 UTC 13.5S 54.3E T3.0/3.0 94S -- Southwest Indian

45 knots

[HURAKAN]

Latest ... continues to become better organized

[Crostorm]

http://www.alanbanks.org.uk/IndianOcean_Met7.html

[Crostorm]

ZCZC 277
WTIO30 FMEE 100754 CCA
*************** CORRECTIVE **************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/5/20102011
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (BINGIZA)
2.A POSITION 2011/02/10 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.6S / 54.5E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : EAST-SOUTH-EAST 3 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 991 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 46 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 148 SO: 222 NO: 222
34 KT NE: 074 SE: 074 SO: 074 NO: 074
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 851 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2011/02/10 18 UTC: 13.5S/54.6E, MAX WIND=045KT , MODERATE TROP.
STORM.
24H: 2011/02/11 06 UTC: 13.5S/54.8E, MAX WIND=050KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM.
36H: 2011/02/11 18 UTC: 13.6S/54.9E, MAX WIND=055KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM.
48H: 2011/02/12 06 UTC: 13.7S/54.9E, MAX WIND=060KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM.
60H: 2011/02/12 18 UTC: 14.4S/54.9E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE.
72H: 2011/02/13 06 UTC: 15.3S/54.8E, MAX WIND=080KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE.
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 14/02/2011 06 UTC: 17.7S/53.9E, MAX WIND=085KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE.
120H: 15/02/2011 06 UTC: 20.4S/52.1E, MAX WIND=085KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE.
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=3.0
CONVECTION HAS GATHERED AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTER WITHIN THE LAST 6 HOURS.
SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE VERY SLOWLY AND APPROXIMATLY NORTH-EASTWARD AND THEN
SOUTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 48HOURS. IT SHOULD TRACK BETWEEN THE SOUTH-WEST
AND THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BEYOND . NWP MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT
FOR THE MOVMENT OF THE SYSTEM BEYOND 48 TO 72 HOURS. THE PRESENT FORECAST
IS A CONSE
NSUS OF THESE TRACKS.
THE SYSTEM ISN'T EXPECTED TO TRACK TOWARDS A MID-LATITUDE DEEP TROUGH IN
ITS SOUTH BEFORE 48HOURS TAU AND EASTERLY WINDSHEAR SHOULD SLOW ITS
INTENSIFICATION. BEYOND 48 TO 72 HOURS TAU, UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH LOWER SHEAR AND GOOD OUTFLOW
SPECIALLY POLEWARDS
. THEREFORE, A STRONGER INTENSIFICATION RATE IS EXPECTED BY THAT TIME.
INHABITANTS OF MASCARENES ISLANDS AND THE EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR
SHOULD CLOSELY FOLLOW THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM.
NNNN