11/0232 UTC 19.5S 169.7E T2.0/2.0 93P -- Southwest Pacific
30 knots
SPAC: VANIA (03F/05P) - Tropical Cyclone
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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HURAKAN
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TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A5 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 11/0234 UTC 2011 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD03F CENTRE 996HPA WAS ANALYSED NEAR 18.9S
169.8E AT 110000 UTC AND MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 5 KNOTS. POSITION
GOOD BASED ON MTSAT IR/VIS IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION, LASTEST ASCAT PASS
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 29 DEGREE CELSIUS.
CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AND COOLED IN THE LAST 6 HOURS WITH ONE BAND
TO THE NORTH AND THE OTHER TO THE SOUTH. OVERALL ORGANISATION
INCREASED PAST 24 HOURS. TD03F LIES ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH AND UNDER
A 250 HPA DIFFLUENT REGION. CIMSS INDICATE A MODERATELY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. SYSTEM CURRENTLY STEERED BY WEAK NORTHERLY. DVORAK
ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.35 LOG 10 SPIRAL YEILDING DT=2.0. MET=2.5, PT=2.0
AND FT BASED ON DT, THUS T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS.
MOST GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVING IT
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 5 KNOTS WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS HIGH.
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD03F WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
110800 UTC.
Jan 11/0234 UTC 2011 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD03F CENTRE 996HPA WAS ANALYSED NEAR 18.9S
169.8E AT 110000 UTC AND MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 5 KNOTS. POSITION
GOOD BASED ON MTSAT IR/VIS IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION, LASTEST ASCAT PASS
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 29 DEGREE CELSIUS.
CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AND COOLED IN THE LAST 6 HOURS WITH ONE BAND
TO THE NORTH AND THE OTHER TO THE SOUTH. OVERALL ORGANISATION
INCREASED PAST 24 HOURS. TD03F LIES ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH AND UNDER
A 250 HPA DIFFLUENT REGION. CIMSS INDICATE A MODERATELY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. SYSTEM CURRENTLY STEERED BY WEAK NORTHERLY. DVORAK
ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.35 LOG 10 SPIRAL YEILDING DT=2.0. MET=2.5, PT=2.0
AND FT BASED ON DT, THUS T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS.
MOST GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVING IT
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 5 KNOTS WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS HIGH.
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD03F WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
110800 UTC.
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Crostorm
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TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A6 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 11/0808 UTC 2011 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD03F CENTRE 996HPA WAS ANALYSED NEAR 19.3S
169.6E AT 110600 UTC AND SLOW MOVING. POSITION GOOD BASED ON MTSAT IR
IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SST
AROUND 29 DEGREE CELSIUS.
CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT IN THE LAST 6 HOURS WITH ONE BAND TO
THE NORTH, THE OTHER BAND TO THE SOUTH. SLIGHT WARMING OF TOPS PAST 3
HOURS. OVERALL ORGANISATION INCREASED PAST 24 HOURS. TD03F LIES ALONG
A SURFACE TROUGH AND UNDER A 250 HPA DIFFLUENT REGION. CIMSS INDICATE
A MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SYSTEM CURRENTLY STEERED BY WEAK
NORTHERLY. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.35 LOG 10 SPIRAL YEILDING
DT=2.0. MET=2.5, PT=2.0 AND FT BASED ON DT, THUS T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS.
MOST GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVING IT
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 05 KNOTS WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS HIGH.
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD03F WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
111400 UTC.
Jan 11/0808 UTC 2011 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD03F CENTRE 996HPA WAS ANALYSED NEAR 19.3S
169.6E AT 110600 UTC AND SLOW MOVING. POSITION GOOD BASED ON MTSAT IR
IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SST
AROUND 29 DEGREE CELSIUS.
CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT IN THE LAST 6 HOURS WITH ONE BAND TO
THE NORTH, THE OTHER BAND TO THE SOUTH. SLIGHT WARMING OF TOPS PAST 3
HOURS. OVERALL ORGANISATION INCREASED PAST 24 HOURS. TD03F LIES ALONG
A SURFACE TROUGH AND UNDER A 250 HPA DIFFLUENT REGION. CIMSS INDICATE
A MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SYSTEM CURRENTLY STEERED BY WEAK
NORTHERLY. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.35 LOG 10 SPIRAL YEILDING
DT=2.0. MET=2.5, PT=2.0 AND FT BASED ON DT, THUS T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS.
MOST GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVING IT
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 05 KNOTS WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS HIGH.
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD03F WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
111400 UTC.
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RobWESTPACWX
- WestPACMet
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- Location: Tokyo, Japan
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Re: SPO: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 03F (93P)
Last ASCAT pass showing some pretty good organization there, New Caledonia is going to get a soaker here.
This GFS image makes the S Hemisphere look pretty grim on tuesday.
This GFS image makes the S Hemisphere look pretty grim on tuesday.
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RobWESTPACWX
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- Location: Tokyo, Japan
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Re: SPO: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 03F (93P)
Some of my thoughts on the storm here, right around 3 minutes in I start talking about the southern hemisphere. 
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cRmpVWydOlI[/youtube]
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cRmpVWydOlI[/youtube]
Last edited by RobWESTPACWX on Tue Jan 11, 2011 7:10 am, edited 1 time in total.
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HURAKAN
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TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A7 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 11/1458 UTC 2011 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD03F CENTRE 996HPA WAS ANALYSED NEAR 19.0S
168.9E AT 111200 UTC AND SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT
IR/EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
SST AROUND 29 DEGREE CELSIUS.
LLCC DIFFICULT TO LOCATE WITH DEEP CONVECTION PRESISTENT IN THE LAST
3 TO 6 HOURS OVER THE SYSTEM. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH BUT
RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. HOWEVER, CONVECTION TO THE NORTH IS SLIGHTLY
DETACHED FROM TD03F. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN THE NEXT 6
HOURS DUE TO DIURNAL VARIATION.
SYSTEM LIES ALONG A MONSOONAN TROUGH AND UNDER A 250HPA DIFFLUENT
REGION. CIMSS INDICATE SYSTEM LIES ALONG A WEAK TO MODERATE SHEARED
ENVIROMENT, HOWEVER, HIGH SHEAR SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM AS A HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE FAR SOUTH GENERATES A SOUTHEAST WIND SURGE.
NORTHWESTERLY SURGE REMAINS MODERATE. SYSTEM CURRENTLY STEERED BY 5
TO 10 KNOTS NORTHERLY. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.35 LOG 10 SPIRAL
YIELDING DT=2.0, MET=2.5, PT=2.0 AND FT BASED ON DT, THUS
T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS.
MOST GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVING IT
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 05 KNOTS WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS HIGH.
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD03F WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
112000 UTC.
Jan 11/1458 UTC 2011 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD03F CENTRE 996HPA WAS ANALYSED NEAR 19.0S
168.9E AT 111200 UTC AND SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT
IR/EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
SST AROUND 29 DEGREE CELSIUS.
LLCC DIFFICULT TO LOCATE WITH DEEP CONVECTION PRESISTENT IN THE LAST
3 TO 6 HOURS OVER THE SYSTEM. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH BUT
RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. HOWEVER, CONVECTION TO THE NORTH IS SLIGHTLY
DETACHED FROM TD03F. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN THE NEXT 6
HOURS DUE TO DIURNAL VARIATION.
SYSTEM LIES ALONG A MONSOONAN TROUGH AND UNDER A 250HPA DIFFLUENT
REGION. CIMSS INDICATE SYSTEM LIES ALONG A WEAK TO MODERATE SHEARED
ENVIROMENT, HOWEVER, HIGH SHEAR SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM AS A HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE FAR SOUTH GENERATES A SOUTHEAST WIND SURGE.
NORTHWESTERLY SURGE REMAINS MODERATE. SYSTEM CURRENTLY STEERED BY 5
TO 10 KNOTS NORTHERLY. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.35 LOG 10 SPIRAL
YIELDING DT=2.0, MET=2.5, PT=2.0 AND FT BASED ON DT, THUS
T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS.
MOST GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVING IT
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 05 KNOTS WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS HIGH.
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD03F WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
112000 UTC.
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Looks like a solid TC to me right now, some very good looking convection!
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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HURAKAN
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- Age: 37
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Re: SPO: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 03F (93P)
WTPS21 PGTW 110200
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
205 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.2S 171.3E TO 24.6S 166.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN
THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AND
SYNOPTIC DATA AT 100100Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 18.9S 170.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.9S
170.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.9S 170.2E, APPROXIMATELY 125NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION HAS DEEPENED AND CONSOLIDATED OVER THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 102130Z ASCAT PASS DIRECTLY OVER
THE LLCC SHOWS 30-KT UNFLAGGED WIND BARBS ALONG THE EASTERN RIM.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF A
POINT SOURCE THAT IS ENHANCING EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THIS IS EVIDENT
ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH TRACKING THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD AND INTENSIFYING
IT TO A MINIMUM 35-KT INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 996MB. DUE TO THE RAPID
CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELED BY
120200Z.//
NNNN
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HURAKAN
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TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A7 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 11/1645 UTC 2011 UTC.
**** CORRECTION TO CENTRAL PRESSURE *****
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD03F CENTRE 994HPA WAS ANALYSED NEAR 19.0S
168.9E AT 111200 UTC AND SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT
IR/EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
SST AROUND 29 DEGREE CELSIUS.
LLCC DIFFICULT TO LOCATE WITH DEEP CONVECTION PRESISTENT IN THE LAST
3 TO 6 HOURS OVER THE SYSTEM. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH BUT
RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. HOWEVER, CONVECTION TO THE NORTH IS SLIGHTLY
DETACHED FROM TD03F. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN THE NEXT 6
HOURS DUE TO DIURNAL VARIATION.
SYSTEM LIES ALONG A MONSOONAN TROUGH AND UNDER A 250HPA DIFFLUENT
REGION. CIMSS INDICATE SYSTEM LIES ALONG A WEAK TO MODERATE SHEARED
ENVIROMENT, HOWEVER, HIGH SHEAR SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM AS A HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE FAR SOUTH GENERATES A SOUTHEAST WIND SURGE.
NORTHWESTERLY SURGE REMAINS MODERATE. SYSTEM CURRENTLY STEERED BY 5
TO 10 KNOTS NORTHERLY. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.35 LOG 10 SPIRAL
YIELDING DT=2.0, MET=2.5, PT=2.0 AND FT BASED ON DT, THUS
T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS.
MOST GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVING IT
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 05 KNOTS WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS HIGH.
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD03F WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
112000 UTC.
Jan 11/1645 UTC 2011 UTC.
**** CORRECTION TO CENTRAL PRESSURE *****
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD03F CENTRE 994HPA WAS ANALYSED NEAR 19.0S
168.9E AT 111200 UTC AND SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT
IR/EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
SST AROUND 29 DEGREE CELSIUS.
LLCC DIFFICULT TO LOCATE WITH DEEP CONVECTION PRESISTENT IN THE LAST
3 TO 6 HOURS OVER THE SYSTEM. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH BUT
RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. HOWEVER, CONVECTION TO THE NORTH IS SLIGHTLY
DETACHED FROM TD03F. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN THE NEXT 6
HOURS DUE TO DIURNAL VARIATION.
SYSTEM LIES ALONG A MONSOONAN TROUGH AND UNDER A 250HPA DIFFLUENT
REGION. CIMSS INDICATE SYSTEM LIES ALONG A WEAK TO MODERATE SHEARED
ENVIROMENT, HOWEVER, HIGH SHEAR SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM AS A HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE FAR SOUTH GENERATES A SOUTHEAST WIND SURGE.
NORTHWESTERLY SURGE REMAINS MODERATE. SYSTEM CURRENTLY STEERED BY 5
TO 10 KNOTS NORTHERLY. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.35 LOG 10 SPIRAL
YIELDING DT=2.0, MET=2.5, PT=2.0 AND FT BASED ON DT, THUS
T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS.
MOST GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVING IT
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 05 KNOTS WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS HIGH.
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD03F WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
112000 UTC.
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
TXPS21 KNES 111600
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (93P)
B. 11/1432Z
C. 18.7S
D. 169.1E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR/SCATT/AMSU
H. REMARKS...3/10 BANDING IN WHITE LEADS TO A DT OF 2.5. MET IS 2.5
WHILE PT AGREES. FT BASED ON MET.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
11/1002Z 18.6S 169.1E SCATT
11/1356Z 18.7S 169.1E AMSU
...JANKOT
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (93P)
B. 11/1432Z
C. 18.7S
D. 169.1E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR/SCATT/AMSU
H. REMARKS...3/10 BANDING IN WHITE LEADS TO A DT OF 2.5. MET IS 2.5
WHILE PT AGREES. FT BASED ON MET.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
11/1002Z 18.6S 169.1E SCATT
11/1356Z 18.7S 169.1E AMSU
...JANKOT
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HURAKAN
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- Age: 37
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GALE WARNING 013 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 11/1902 UTC 2011 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03F CENTRE [992HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 19.1S 169.4E AT
111800UTC. DEPRESSION SLOW MOVING.
CLOCKWISE WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 080 TO 240 NAUTICAL MILES AWAY FROM THE
CENTRE IN SECTORS FROM NORTH THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHWEST. AREA OF GALE SLOW
MOVING.
THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 011.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03F CENTRE [992HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 19.1S 169.4E AT
111800UTC. DEPRESSION SLOW MOVING.
CLOCKWISE WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 080 TO 240 NAUTICAL MILES AWAY FROM THE
CENTRE IN SECTORS FROM NORTH THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHWEST. AREA OF GALE SLOW
MOVING.
THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 011.
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cycloneye
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- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: SPO: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03F (93P)
Impressive looking system.Finnally,the Southern Hemisphere turns alive.
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