ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[caribepr]

I've been in the woods camping...first looked last night and I asked (elsewhere) if it was going north, that's what it looked like to me, no no, I was told, it's going south. Looks even more north this morning, so is that valid or am I just being Culebra paranoid? Thanks.

Never mind, I just got the answer...I think.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for PR, Vieques, & Culebra. A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the southern coast of the DR. TS Warning remains in effect for the Virgin Islands and for the northern Leewards, as well as for Haiti.

[Frank2]

The 15Z discussion mentions "a couple of troughs" with one currently dropping SE through TN, so we'll see how they influences Irene's track:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

of course here in South Florida we are hoping and hopefully praying for the best, but either way it'll all work out...

Frank

[tolakram]

Wrong pressure again, IMO.

[Sanibel]

I think Irene has found the underside of the ridge and should track closer to the NHC track now. I don't think Hispaniola will be kind to it.

[FrontRunner]

yeah that is completely wrong.. center is straight north of your circle.

North? Not west? To me, all those southerly winds would indicate that the center is farther west and that they should have kept going before turning to the NE. Granted, it seems like the wind field is still not terribly well organized, so I certainly could be missing something.

[RL3AO]

443
UZNT13 KNHC 211556
XXAA 71168 99176 70627 04372 99007 25413 12044 00064 25009 12542
92748 21603 12541 85480 16823 14051 88999 77999
31313 09608 81544
61616 AF300 0209A IRENE OB 14
62626 MXWNDBND SPL 1761N06272W 1547 MBL WND 12047 AEV 20802 DLM W
ND 12546 007842 WL150 12542 084 REL 1759N06269W 154420 SPG 1761N0
6272W 154705 =
XXBB 71168 99176 70627 04372 00007 25413 11863 19412 22850 16823
33842 15030
21212 00007 12044 11989 12042 22978 11552 33911 12541 44900 12542
55895 13051 66882 13046 77867 13550 88860 13547 99856 14051 11842
14051
31313 09608 81544
61616 AF300 0209A IRENE OB 14
62626 MXWNDBND SPL 1761N06272W 1547 MBL WND 12047 AEV 20802 DLM W
ND 12546 007842 WL150 12542 084 REL 1759N06269W 154420 SPG 1761N0
6272W 154705 =
;


Windband dropsonde. 1007mb, 44kt. Somehow the center pressure is 1007...

[Aric Dunn]

really are you kidding me !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! the winds are completely wrong !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[RL3AO]

21212 00007 12044
;

Dropsonde in windband. 1007mb 44kt.

[Tampa_God]

The 15Z discussion mentions "a couple of troughs" with one currently dropping SE through TN, so we'll see how they influences Irene's track:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

of course here in South Florida we are hoping and hopefully praying for the best, but either way it'll all work out...

Frank

Well, if it is the same trough as I heard earlier mentioned, I believe they said the didn't expect the trough to do much on the ridge. It's the one behind it that they believe will break down the ridge some and begin re-curving Irene to the North.

[brunota2003]

56 knots Flight Level * .85 reduction = 47.6 knots. SMFR supports 48 knots as well, and assuming they didn't sample the strongest winds, I could see a bump to 50 knots.

[Aric Dunn]

I have the center 17.3N 63.4 W and beginning to deepen.

[Frank2]

The AF recon flight path is directed by the NHC forecaster, so for various reasons they are having them fly the current butterfly pattern - it's not like driving a car, you know...

Per the tracks they do seem to be deviating around the buildups, but that's at the pilot's discretion...

Frank

[CrazyC83]

Pressure is likely 1001mb given that St. Kitts was only an hourly observation and not directly in the center.

[Tampa_God]

I have the center 17.3N 63.4 W and beginning to deepen.

Pretty much where I have it. Seems to be doing more of a west track now instead of the WNW track.

[RL3AO]

126
URNT15 KNHC 211604
AF300 0209A IRENE HDOB 35 20110821
155430 1754N 06215W 8429 01561 //// +173 //// 141048 049 036 000 05
155500 1755N 06214W 8432 01559 //// +174 //// 141048 049 035 001 01
155530 1756N 06212W 8426 01565 //// +173 //// 140049 049 035 000 05
155600 1757N 06211W 8429 01564 //// +172 //// 140047 048 035 000 05
155630 1758N 06210W 8430 01562 //// +168 //// 140047 047 035 001 01
155700 1758N 06208W 8426 01565 //// +167 //// 141047 047 035 000 01
155730 1759N 06207W 8429 01562 //// +167 //// 141046 046 034 000 01
155800 1800N 06205W 8431 01564 //// +165 //// 138045 045 033 000 01
155830 1801N 06204W 8430 01564 //// +170 //// 138046 047 035 000 01
155900 1802N 06203W 8426 01568 //// +175 //// 138046 046 035 001 01
155930 1803N 06201W 8432 01563 //// +173 //// 134045 045 036 000 05
160000 1804N 06200W 8426 01569 //// +171 //// 135045 045 035 002 01
160030 1805N 06159W 8429 01567 //// +175 //// 136045 046 034 000 05
160100 1806N 06157W 8430 01567 //// +174 //// 135045 046 034 000 05
160130 1807N 06156W 8429 01568 //// +173 //// 134045 045 034 000 05
160200 1808N 06155W 8431 01567 //// +171 //// 134046 047 034 000 01
160230 1808N 06153W 8430 01568 //// +170 //// 135046 046 033 001 01
160300 1809N 06152W 8430 01569 //// +169 //// 135046 046 031 001 01
160330 1810N 06151W 8432 01567 //// +168 //// 134047 048 035 002 01
160400 1811N 06150W 8422 01574 //// +162 //// 134046 051 /// /// 05
$$
;

[Battlebrick]

GFS misses Hispaniola to the north at 60 hrs.. not good.

[CrazyC83]

56 knots Flight Level * .85 reduction = 47.6 knots. SMFR supports 48 knots as well, and assuming they didn't sample the strongest winds, I could see a bump to 50 knots.

Reduction is .80 at the elevation so it supports 44.8 knots. I'd bump it to 50 kt though based on the SFMR, deepening pressure and missing the core.

[brunota2003]

By the way...they dropped a dropsonde where they also put out the Vortex, and it does read 1007 millibars with a surface wind of 11 knots:

Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 21st day of the month at 15:37Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 300)
Storm Number: 09
Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 13

Part A...

Date: Near the closest hour of 15Z on the 21st day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 850mb
Coordinates: 16.9N 63.1W
Location: 221 miles (356 km) to the ESE (118°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
Marsden Square: 043 (About)

Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
1007mb (29.74 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 24.6°C (76.3°F) 23.1°C (73.6°F) 170° (from the S) 11 knots (13 mph)
1000mb 61m (200 ft) 24.2°C (75.6°F) 22.9°C (73.2°F) 155° (from the SSE) 11 knots (13 mph)
925mb 742m (2,434 ft) 21.0°C (69.8°F) 18.9°C (66.0°F) 155° (from the SSE) 12 knots (14 mph)
850mb 1,473m (4,833 ft) 17.2°C (63.0°F) 14.4°C (57.9°F) 190° (from the S) 4 knots (5 mph)

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 15:28Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...

Dropsonde Location: Dropped in eye.

Splash Location: 16.93N 63.13W
Splash Time: 15:31Z

Release Location: 16.92N 63.13W
Release Time: 15:28:49Z

Splash Location: 16.93N 63.14W
Splash Time: 15:31:09Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 160° (from the SSE)
- Wind Speed: 10 knots (12 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 165° (from the SSE)
- Wind Speed: 9 knots (10 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 843mb to 1006mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 159 gpm - 9 gpm (522 geo. feet - 30 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 160° (from the SSE)
- Wind Speed: 10 knots (12 mph)

[NDG]

The recon keeps mising the center, lol.

[Sanibel]

GFS misses Hispaniola to the north at 60 hrs.. not good.

More important would be a total miss of Cuba and open-water run at south Florida...