ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[KWT]

No idea why they think there is a low pressure there, pretty much no evidence came back from recon or surface obs to suggest there is a closed circulation down there of any real note...may have one if a decent convective burst occurs.

If there was, we'd probably have TD5 now...

Nimbus, yeah, convergence should be increasing, will do the circulation no harm at all, even if the convection is a little north of any center that is present in the eastern system.

[SouthFLTropics]

the other thing to remember is if we do get a large intense hurricane they tend to build up the ridges somewhat we saw that with EARL and many many other..so an longer duration wnw track at anytime could cause florida to be in the cross hairs

Not just Florida.. the whole SE coast could be affected

That is correct...Similar to Floyd in 99'. If it were to make a dangerously close approach and then ride up the East Coast we could see a substantial amount of seaboard affected and "millions" of people evacuated. It's an EOC nightmare.

SFT

[stormreader]

No doubt models have trended west. What I wonder is if anyone thinks that the GOM might still be in play here, courtesy of a run near S Fl and the Keys (or is that stretching it a little too much)?

[SouthDadeFish]

Stacy is on duty and passed along that they had SatCom issues and lost contact with the aircraft.

Thanks for the update! I guess there could be worse times to lose communications...

[Aric Dunn]

the other thing to remember is if we do get a large intense hurricane they tend to build up the ridges somewhat we saw that with EARL and many many other..so an longer duration wnw track at anytime could cause florida to be in the cross hairs

Not just Florida.. the whole SE coast could be affected

well it cant make it past hateras.. the flow is straight west to east.

[KWT]

The pattern is still broadly troughy, I'd have thought there'd be enough bites of the cherry by several upper troughs to take the system northwards before the Gulf.

[artist]

No idea why they think there is a low pressure there, pretty much no evidence came back from recon or surface obs to suggest there is a closed circulation down there of any real note...may have one if a decent convective burst occurs.

If there was, we'd probably have TD5 now...

Nimbus, yeah, convergence should be increasing, will do the circulation no harm at all, even if the convection is a little north of any center that is present in the eastern system.

considering they only received 9 obs before communications issues arose, unless they have already returned to base and transmitted them to the NHC since then, they might not know yet what was actually found.

[KWT]

considering they only received 9 obs before communications issues arose, unless they have already returned to base and transmitted them to the NHC since then, they might not no yet what was actually found.

True, but we've got enough obs through other sources to suggest there isn't much of a surface circulation, a sharp wind axis sure, probably a very weak LLC as well but nothing too notable...

As I said, the NHC would have upgraded anyway if they felt the other obs showed enough evidence, but just wasn't enough to suggest a well defined circulation.

[bella_may]

the longer this thing takes to develop,the more nervous i get that this thing will not catch the ridge and keep tracking wnw into the gulf

[Nikki]

the longer this thing takes to develop,the more nervous i get that this thing will not catch the ridge and keep tracking wnw into the gulf

There is nothing to support this, but as they say in the tropics...never say never!

[stormreader]

The pattern is still broadly troughy, I'd have thought there'd be enough bites of the cherry by several upper troughs to take the system northwards before the Gulf.

I think "broadly troughy" is a pretty good way to put it. Thats why I'm wondering if the extreme E GOM might not still be in play. This would require that broad troughiness you mention to pull the system near or over S Fl with the more distinct turn north not occuring until the storm was actually in the E GOM with a track then toward the Fl panhandle. Just a though from nothing more than an amateur here.

[fci]

there were a couple of people that were so stubborn on taking this one out to see, which is fine to have your own opinion but they were mentioning it as if it was guaranteed the U.S was safe. That made it irritating for the rest of us that arguments were all over the thread. This is what we were talking about. Anything can happen.

I don't quite get your "frustration" over people saying that this was going to recurve.
Models had it, Pro Mets had it and climatology had it.
Conditions have changed with the slower development and splitting of the system
I can't undestand why this would frustrate anyone!

[bella_may]

the longer this thing takes to develop,the more nervous i get that this thing will not catch the ridge and keep tracking wnw into the gulf

There is nothing to support this, but as they say in the tropics...never say never!

not yet, but just a couple of days ago everybody was saying the same thing about the bahamas an south florida, you never know i guess

[stormreader]

the longer this thing takes to develop,the more nervous i get that this thing will not catch the ridge and keep tracking wnw into the gulf

It is something of a stretch, but I wouldn't rule it out either. My own hunch (posted over in models) is that the E GOM might still be in play. With the system making a run at S Fl before making a distinct N turn further along in the E GOM toward the panhandle. But this is just a shear guess at this very early stage.

[AtlanticWind]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-ir2.html

You can see whrer the circulation center likely is on the shortwave loop.

[Nikki]

the longer this thing takes to develop,the more nervous i get that this thing will not catch the ridge and keep tracking wnw into the gulf

There is nothing to support this, but as they say in the tropics...never say never!

not yet, but just a couple of days ago everybody was saying the same thing about the bahamas an south florida, you never know i guess

You really don't ever know I agree...tis why it is so important for those of us who live on any coast line to be prepared at the beginning of the season!

[stormreader]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-ir2.html

You can see whrer the circulation center likely is on the shortwave loop.

No doubt about it.

[Vortex]

We talked about this several days ago..The slower she cranks up the further west she goes...Looks like a legitimate threat to DR and Bahamas...

[Florida1118]

there were a couple of people that were so stubborn on taking this one out to see, which is fine to have your own opinion but they were mentioning it as if it was guaranteed the U.S was safe. That made it irritating for the rest of us that arguments were all over the thread. This is what we were talking about. Anything can happen.

I don't quite get your "frustration" over people saying that this was going to recurve.
Models had it, Pro Mets had it and climatology had it.
Conditions have changed with the slower development and splitting of the system
I can't undestand why this would frustrate anyone!

Yeah I mean the Tropics change...No one is going to get it right all the time. As long as they have the disclaimer, then I say let them have at it

[Aric Dunn]

All the old HDOBS are coming in..