ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[SFLcane]

[Aric Dunn]

well the path recon has right now should pass them right through the real center without them knowing they are going to maybe lol ..

[chris_fit]

If the NHC 11am path verifies, Irene should be shredded to pieces in Hispaniola.

[RL3AO]

641
URNT15 KNHC 211504
AF300 0209A IRENE HDOB 29 20110821
145430 1553N 06207W 8429 01574 //// +165 //// 185020 021 015 000 01
145500 1553N 06205W 8429 01574 //// +165 //// 186021 022 014 000 01
145530 1553N 06202W 8430 01571 //// +163 //// 186021 021 016 000 05
145600 1553N 06200W 8430 01575 //// +165 //// 184021 022 012 000 01
145630 1553N 06158W 8432 01571 //// +154 //// 179022 023 017 003 01
145700 1554N 06156W 8430 01576 //// +166 //// 180023 024 014 001 01
145730 1554N 06154W 8429 01577 //// +172 //// 172026 026 016 000 05
145800 1554N 06152W 8428 01579 //// +175 //// 171025 026 017 000 01
145830 1554N 06150W 8429 01579 //// +176 //// 169026 026 015 000 01
145900 1554N 06148W 8429 01579 //// +171 //// 174025 026 016 000 01
145930 1554N 06146W 8429 01579 //// +172 //// 177025 025 014 000 05
150000 1555N 06144W 8422 01582 //// +171 //// 174025 025 /// /// 05
150030 1557N 06143W 8430 01574 //// +173 //// 168024 024 /// /// 05
150100 1558N 06145W 8437 01568 //// +175 //// 161024 024 016 001 05
150130 1600N 06147W 8428 01576 //// +174 //// 160025 026 019 001 01
150200 1601N 06148W 8429 01575 //// +173 //// 158026 026 020 000 01
150230 1603N 06150W 8430 01571 //// +172 //// 156026 026 020 001 05
150300 1605N 06152W 8430 01570 //// +167 //// 161026 026 020 001 01
150330 1606N 06153W 8430 01575 //// +168 //// 162023 025 019 000 01
150400 1608N 06155W 8428 01577 //// +169 //// 164024 024 023 000 01
$$
;

[JPmia]

SOFLA still in the bulls eye!

Seems like they're doubling down on that track for now. Anyone think these northerly center relocations will change the future track away from FL to the east?

[jinftl]

Now we are talking Thursday day when the weather could deteriorate in south fla...which means we could see some type of watch if this track holds by tuesday.

SOFLA still in the bulls eye!

[tolakram]

[Aric Dunn]

Hey thats still the 8am track....

[psyclone]

i was expecting more an east shift. the end point is just west of lake o on a west of north heading.
if that's the old track then strike the above comment...

[SFLcane]

If anything track shifted south a tad instead of eastward.

[shaggy]

well the path recon has right now should pass them right through the real center without them knowing they are going to maybe lol ..

Still cant see why they don't have the center to the NW of Kitts. They are the experts I know but sometimes I have to scratch my head. Now that hurricane warnings are up will they try to keep continous flights into the system going forward?

[Battlebrick]

since the center seems like it has relocated to the north quite a bit, what's the chance that Irene goes north of Puerto Rico?

[tolakram]

Refresh Aric



Now hits SW PR.

[hurr123]

The NHC has been very consistent with their forecast path. It has been South Florida from the beginning. Wow!! If they nail this...it will be an outstanding accomplishment for them. I remember, for Hurricane Gustav, they had the 5-day nailed down. They really do a great job. Lets see how this forecast goes.

[Aric Dunn]

i was expecting more an east shift. the end point is just west of lake o on a west of north heading.

it just updated not much of east shift..

this north relocation does not mean SF is in the clear. just means the turn will be more gradual and florida is still in the cross hairs..

[micktooth]

Hey thats still the 8am track....

I know, sorry, 11 AM is not very different.

[Tampa_God]

A TS going over me would be fine. Shame Haiti will need to take another hit, but good for Florida or we would be talking about a major heading towards S. FL.

Any wobble to the north though could make this a whole different storm for FL. though. Less land interaction with Hispaniola and likely no interaction with Cuba, it could even maintain hurricane strength while skimming the northern coast of Hispaniola.

[SFLcane]

i was expecting more an east shift. the end point is just west of lake o on a west of north heading.

it just updated not much of east shift..

this north relocation does not mean SF is in the clear. just means the turn will be more gradual and florida is still in the cross hairs..

What it might suggest is futher intensification if it manages to avoid land.

[rockyman]

The heading between days 4 and 5 is slightly more westward than 5am...possibly in deference to some of the models showing the high building back in as the system crosses 25N

[tolakram]