ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[RL3AO]

468
URNT15 KNHC 211444
AF300 0209A IRENE HDOB 27 20110821
143430 1545N 06332W 8432 01570 //// +160 //// 358008 008 016 000 01
143500 1546N 06330W 8429 01575 //// +160 //// 355007 008 015 000 01
143530 1546N 06330W 8429 01575 //// +161 //// 338005 006 015 001 01
143600 1546N 06325W 8429 01573 //// +161 //// 298003 003 015 001 01
143630 1546N 06323W 8429 01571 //// +163 //// 282003 004 015 000 01
143700 1546N 06321W 8430 01569 //// +163 //// 256004 004 014 001 01
143730 1547N 06319W 8431 01569 //// +166 //// 239005 006 016 000 01
143800 1547N 06319W 8431 01569 //// +168 //// 219005 005 014 000 01
143830 1547N 06315W 8430 01569 //// +169 //// 220005 006 015 000 01
143900 1547N 06313W 8429 01570 //// +167 //// 219006 007 016 001 01
143930 1547N 06311W 8429 01570 //// +168 //// 211008 009 012 001 01
144000 1547N 06308W 8429 01570 //// +170 //// 222009 009 014 001 05
144030 1548N 06306W 8430 01570 //// +175 //// 231009 009 014 000 01
144100 1548N 06304W 8430 01571 //// +171 //// 230009 009 014 000 01
144130 1548N 06302W 8429 01573 //// +172 //// 224009 010 014 000 05
144200 1548N 06300W 8429 01573 //// +169 //// 218010 010 012 000 01
144230 1548N 06258W 8432 01569 //// +169 //// 207010 011 015 000 01
144300 1549N 06256W 8429 01573 //// +170 //// 208011 011 015 000 01
144330 1549N 06254W 8431 01571 //// +171 //// 211011 012 019 000 01
144400 1549N 06251W 8437 01565 //// +167 //// 209013 014 015 001 01
$$
;

[JPmia]

Last recon fix i saw had it up 16.9N BUT if your right the chance of this missing sfl might be increasing.[/quote]

I agree .. I think we will start to see the track shift east with these northerly center relocations.

[AdamFirst]

If this is going into the Gulf it's going to ride the west coast of Florida. That's a pretty big IF though.

The above post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[tolakram]

[Javlin]

Think this thing could wobble to the wsw some in a little while

You have been really trolling hard for the past 24 hours.

Well it looks like the relocation to the N is over and she is definitly looking to be on a 270-275' degree path now.If you look at what has happened even just 3-4 days ago we had Harvey move due W almost.Have the steering patterns really changed that much in 24hrs since harvey went in?


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html

[Sanibel]

GFDL was wack last night. Hmm, proves the point to ignore GFDL if the system doesn't have an eye as far as steering.

I think they might adjust right one more time from the looks of it.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

Think this thing could wobble to the wsw some in a little while

You have been really trolling hard for the past 24 hours.

OK call it trolling if you want but its my opinion and I'd say at this point its very reasonable.but if you don't u could just not read it or ignore it. K thankssss

Ok,lets cut this off please as things are turning serious with Irene.Lets not fall into these type of things.

[psyclone]

If this is going into the Gulf it's going to ride the west coast of Florida. That's a pretty big IF though.

The above post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I'm feeling a sense of relief on the west coast at this point. i hope the trend persists (at least from a selfish perspective)

[NDG]

ok yeah the center has just started passing St kits to the wnw.. winds just switched to the S also pressure 1002 mb !! yeah recon is missing the center.

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TKPK.html

10 AM (14) Aug 21 78 (26) 78 (26) 29.59 (1002) S 9 light rain
9 AM (13) Aug 21 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.74 (1007) ENE 9 rain showers
8 AM (12) Aug 21 75 (24) 75 (24) 29.77 (1008) NE 13 heavy rain
7 AM (11) Aug 21 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.94 (1014) NE 16 rain

Aric, she appears to be deepening quickly if that 29.59 verifies...Thats a substantial drop in one hour!

Probably that pressure reading is wrong, the recon passed just a few miles east of that island, they would had seen that pressure.

[johngaltfla]

Wow, upgraded to a hurricane warning for Puerto Rico and Watch for the Virgin Islands in the 1500 UTC forecast advisory:

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...AND CULEBRA
* THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE SOUTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI TO CABO
FRANCES VIEJO ON THE NORTH COAST

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

[AdamFirst]

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...AND CULEBRA
* THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE SOUTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI TO CABO
FRANCES VIEJO ON THE NORTH COAST

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. MAARTEN...ST. MARTIN...AND ST.
BARTHELEMY
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANGUILLA...MONTSERRAT
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER
EASTWARD TO CABO FRANCES VIEJO
* HAITI

[SFLcane]

11am 17.0N

[Aric Dunn]

well the 11 am position is not too far of.. went with 17N.

[RL3AO]

I don't get it. St. Kitts showed an ob of 1002 mb and a south wind showing the center is well north of where recon has it.

[RL3AO]

242
URNT15 KNHC 211454
AF300 0209A IRENE HDOB 28 20110821
144430 1549N 06249W 8426 01576 //// +166 //// 206013 014 014 001 01
144500 1549N 06247W 8429 01574 //// +170 //// 205014 014 015 001 01
144530 1549N 06245W 8430 01573 //// +170 //// 210013 014 016 000 01
144600 1550N 06243W 8429 01571 //// +171 //// 216012 012 015 001 05
144630 1550N 06241W 8429 01571 //// +170 //// 216012 012 016 000 01
144700 1550N 06239W 8430 01570 //// +172 //// 214012 013 018 000 01
144730 1550N 06236W 8430 01570 //// +170 //// 213012 013 018 001 01
144800 1550N 06234W 8430 01570 //// +169 //// 214013 014 018 000 01
144830 1551N 06232W 8430 01571 //// +165 //// 216015 015 019 000 01
144900 1551N 06230W 8428 01575 //// +172 //// 212015 015 017 001 05
144930 1551N 06228W 8434 01569 //// +173 //// 203016 017 013 000 01
145000 1551N 06226W 8428 01574 //// +173 //// 200017 018 012 000 01
145030 1551N 06224W 8436 01568 //// +175 //// 195015 016 009 000 01
145100 1551N 06221W 8429 01573 //// +171 //// 192016 017 010 000 01
145130 1552N 06219W 8432 01571 //// +170 //// 189016 016 009 000 01
145200 1552N 06217W 8429 01575 //// +170 //// 189017 018 012 000 01
145230 1552N 06215W 8430 01574 //// +166 //// 190018 018 011 000 05
145300 1552N 06213W 8429 01574 //// +165 //// 187018 019 011 000 01
145330 1552N 06211W 8432 01571 //// +166 //// 185019 020 014 000 01
145400 1553N 06209W 8430 01573 //// +169 //// 184021 021 014 000 01
$$
;

[JPmia]

Cycloneye you're under a Hurrican Warning.. time to batten down the hatches! Good luck!

[SkeetoBite]

[Aric Dunn]

I don't get it. St. Kitts showed an ob of 1002 mb and a south wind showing the center is well north of where recon has it.

because they have to go with continuity ? IDK lol

whats funny is that recon will likely land and the center will pass over them lol

[micktooth]

SOFLA still in the bulls eye!

Edit: Sorry old graphic, but you get the point!

[mf_dolphin]

The north relocation brings in the possibility that Irene could track along the north coast of Hispaniola. That's not a good thing for those of us in Florida.