ATL: LEE - Remnants - Discussion

[cyclogenesis]

September 2, 2011
this Friday afternoon
252 PM CDT



Gang ~~ For those of you who missed my EARLY morning writing today on your newly formed Tropical Storm "Lee", I have placed 2 writings on to my website, and can be read at this following website weblink provided down below:



http://cvamagic.tripod.com/





-- cyclogenesis

[South Texas Storms]

This is a terrible tease for us Texans- Watched all week long knowing something would brew up in the gulf and its misses us by a hair- There is always next week I guess

Yes it was. Just awful. I lost about 12 hours of sleep model watching at night and during the day I could have been doing more productive things. Just a huge waste of time. I'm very dissapointed to say the least.

[poof121]

1002 mb... 27.5N 92.4W, pressure still dropping

1 pm position: 27.4N 91.5W 1003 mb

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42361&unit=M&tz=STN

[ConvergenceZone]

As slow as it takes to organize, I wouldn't worry about a hurricane, just a mid to high tropical storm with lots and lots of rain...

Uh, last time I checked, the longer a system is over almost boiling water the better chance it has of becoming a hurricane. Of course that is with very good conditions all around which is pretty much expected to be happening as time progresses. I certainly wouldn't discount the possibility of it reaching hurricane status before landfall, especially since TS Lee is not moving much at all. The one thing that may/could slow any intensification down is the possibility of upwelling setting in and cooling the waters if Lee sits in one place too long.
edit: I posted at the same time as the above post. Seems to be some agreement here.

Look how long it's taken just to go from a tropical depression to a tropical storm, even though the shear has lesssened.... Also, the circulation is large...If it does hit hurricane strength, it will BARELY make it....Until the storm starts to show me some muscle, there's no reason to think otherwise.

[jabman98]

This is a terrible tease for us Texans- Watched all week long knowing something would brew up in the gulf and its misses us by a hair- There is always next week I guess

If we're already starting to get cold fronts down here, I don't hold out much hope for a tropical system. Heard on the radio the drought is forecast to last for several more months. Sigh.

Someone upthread said the Euro is moving it a little more north. North rather than NE means we've got a tiny bit more of a chance to get an outer band. I'll take what I can get.

[JenBayles]

One thing all you people complain about it not going to Texas seem to forgeting is that with as bad of a drought you have had this would be horrible flash flooding for you. With ground cracking up it is so hard it would have a hard time absorbing 3 inches let alone 10 to 13. Be careful what you wish for. And all good things come to those who wait. Hopefully some outer bands catch you and get you ready for more soon.

Spoken like someone who must have personally experienced water falling from the sky this summer? Me, I don't care if I flood again. Been there, done that, I'll survive it again. Bring on the rain!

Just heard a blurb on the news that NOLA is concerned Lee may be a levee-buster in spite of Corps "improvements" since Katrina. Anyone have any more info on that?

[SouthDadeFish]

People, remember the real threat from this storm is rain. Regardless of whether it reaches minimal cane status or not, it will dump epic proportions of rainfall over the coastal Louisiana area. Just ask those in Texas who went through Allison about how much rain a tropical storm can bring if it just sits there. I mean unless it really surprises us and reaches Cat 2 or higher, which is very doubtful in my opinion, the wind won't be as much of a factor as the rain. This is not a professional forecast and just my opinion.

[Countrygirl911]

ok we just got our first rain from lee. i am 2 to 2 1/2 hrs from NOLA near mccomb and natchez mississippi. at first the wind was gusty and the rain came down really good then the next thing i know all crap broke loose. i heard this roaring sound only for a min the trees were turning in circles i had leaves in my yard that looked to form a small funnle and was flying around in circles i now have a mess in my yard from leves and some branches not sure was it was but for a min it was quite scarey. my kids swingset it not on its side and a good 5 feet from where it was before this line came thru. my ears even popped. i am thinking it was a downward gust of wind but going to watch our local news on the computer to see if they say anything our lights are out thankfully i had my husband set up the generator to run the necessary things. within an hr i expect our lights to be back on. during gustav and katrina we were only out of lights for a day we live in the country so we get lights back fast since our area is the only one that uses this electric company. the reason our lights are out i have a branch on the line in my yard no power lines down that i can see. if this happened from a little line of storms i can only imagine it will get worse once lee gets closser.

[BigB0882]

Down another mb. It seems to be trying to wrap the moisture around the northwest but I think we've seen this before and it eventually loses the battle, holding strong for now though.

The position would insinuate it moved almost due West, right? Very little northern component. I think NHC will be too far East on their landfall and probably too early with landfall.

[jabman98]

One thing all you people complain about it not going to Texas seem to forgeting is that with as bad of a drought you have had this would be horrible flash flooding for you. With ground cracking up it is so hard it would have a hard time absorbing 3 inches let alone 10 to 13. Be careful what you wish for. And all good things come to those who wait. Hopefully some outer bands catch you and get you ready for more soon.

Those of us in Texas are well aware that hard packed dry ground can mean flash flooding if we get a lot of rain. Please do not accuse us of "forgeting" that fact. If you read the thread here, or pretty much any thread of a storm that might have come to Texas so far this season, you'll see many people mentioning this issue. That being said, I would guess that pretty much everyone in Texas would take a flooding tropical system over this drought. We know all about the flooding risks and we'd still take it. It's that bad here.

As far as "all good things come to those who wait," well, what choice do we have? We're here. We can't exactly make it rain. If I could get out fans and push Lee to us, I would. Doesn't work that way. So we're dejected and even more so because it's just sooooooo close and even a few days ago we were told it was coming our way. Lee feels like a real tease. And after this incredibly hot, dry summer, that's hard to take. Please forgive us for being bitter and grouchy about it.

[jabman98]

ok we just got our first rain from lee. i am 2 to 2 1/2 hrs from NOLA near mccomb and natchez mississippi. at first the wind was gusty and the rain came down really good then the next thing i know all crap broke loose. i heard this roaring sound only for a min the trees were turning in circles i had leaves in my yard that looked to form a small funnle and was flying around in circles i now have a mess in my yard from leves and some branches not sure was it was but for a min it was quite scarey. my kids swingset it not on its side and a good 5 feet from where it was before this line came thru. my ears even popped. i am thinking it was a downward gust of wind but going to watch our local news on the computer to see if they say anything our lights are out thankfully i had my husband set up the generator to run the necessary things. within an hr i expect our lights to be back on. during gustav and katrina we were only out of lights for a day we live in the country so we get lights back fast since our area is the only one that uses this electric company. the reason our lights are out i have a branch on the line in my yard no power lines down that i can see. if this happened from a little line of storms i can only imagine it will get worse once lee gets closser.

Wow! Sounds like you had a little downburst of air. A little mini-funnel or something. Glad you are okay and it's only the swingset that got it.

Even though rain and flooding will be the main issue with this storm doesn't mean there won't be some wind issues as well. I hope everyone in the path is paying attention and staying safe.

[rockyman]

Umbrellas inside out in New Orleans. It's a hoot!

[jabman98]

Down another mb. It seems to be trying to wrap the moisture around the northwest but I think we've seen this before and it eventually loses the battle, holding strong for now though.

The position would insinuate it moved almost due West, right? Very little northern component. I think NHC will be too far East on their landfall and probably too early with landfall.

In the model thread someone posted that the Euro moved it north and possibly a tiny bit west on the 12z, I think.

[BigB0882]

Down another mb. It seems to be trying to wrap the moisture around the northwest but I think we've seen this before and it eventually loses the battle, holding strong for now though.

The position would insinuate it moved almost due West, right? Very little northern component. I think NHC will be too far East on their landfall and probably too early with landfall.

In the model thread someone posted that the Euro moved it north and possibly a tiny bit west on the 12z, I think.

Yes, and the latest position would seem to show that the Euro is winning so far but that could change. I am thinking the Euro is going to beat the NHC this time, the Euro has done very well so far, IMO. Oh god, I am turning into a Euro freak! HELP!

[jabman98]

Just heard a blurb on the news that NOLA is concerned Lee may be a levee-buster in spite of Corps "improvements" since Katrina. Anyone have any more info on that?

Found this on nola.com:

A new Army Corps of Engineers rating system for the nation’s levees is about to deliver a near-failing grade to New Orleans area dikes, despite the internationally acclaimed $10 billion effort to rebuild the system in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, corps officials have confirmed.

And then this from Bloomberg:

New Orleans officials, bracing for rain from Tropical Storm Lee in the Gulf of Mexico, said they’re confident a new drainage and pumping system will protect the city from flooding following $10 billion of repairs.

No storm surge is expected, so the levees fortified after devastation by Hurricane Katrina in 2005 won’t be tested, said Robert Turner, regional director of the Southeast Louisiana Flood Protection Authority.

“I don’t have any major concerns with the pumping capacity,” said Turner. “There is nothing we have seen that would indicate there are any problems there.”

It seems they're confident the pumps can keep up.

[poof121]

Down another mb. It seems to be trying to wrap the moisture around the northwest but I think we've seen this before and it eventually loses the battle, holding strong for now though.

The position would insinuate it moved almost due West, right? Very little northern component. I think NHC will be too far East on their landfall and probably too early with landfall.

In the model thread someone posted that the Euro moved it north and possibly a tiny bit west on the 12z, I think.

Yes, and the latest position would seem to show that the Euro is winning so far but that could change. I am thinking the Euro is going to beat the NHC this time, the Euro has done very well so far, IMO. Oh god, I am turning into a Euro freak! HELP!

I'm thinking it's just a sign of how broad the circulation is. But, I could be wrong...

[Raininfyr]

Sitting here in Baton Rouge. We had one bout of squally weather around 11:30 this morning. The radar is showing rain, but I haven't seen hardly any since that time.

[BigB0882]

Sitting here in Baton Rouge. We had one bout of squally weather around 11:30 this morning. The radar is showing rain, but I haven't seen hardly any since that time.

Same here. It was really the only rain I have seen so far. I have seen drops falling from my roof so it must sprinkle every now and then but nothing like a downpour since 11:30. The radar looks much worse than it really is, I don't think I even see drops anymore from the roof. I think tonight is when things will pick up.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Been sitting back observing this for awhile since it became Lee. As BigB just said looks like it is trying to wrap moisture into its nw and w sides. Not having a lot of success at the moment, but does look a lot better on visible sat imagery. Looks like it is getting better organized by the hour and if shear does lessen like forecast and it can wrap some convection around the center things could definitely get a little more intersting come tomorrow. I saw the last euro runs get this right near hurricane strength who knows once this really starts organizing.

[PTrackerLA]

TVCN looks to go directly up Vermilion Bay to about Lafayette then shifting eastwards from there.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal ... el%20plots