ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

ok yeah the center has just started passing St kits to the wnw.. winds just switched to the S also pressure 1002 mb !! yeah recon is missing the center.

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TKPK.html

10 AM (14) Aug 21 78 (26) 78 (26) 29.59 (1002) S 9 light rain
9 AM (13) Aug 21 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.74 (1007) ENE 9 rain showers
8 AM (12) Aug 21 75 (24) 75 (24) 29.77 (1008) NE 13 heavy rain
7 AM (11) Aug 21 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.94 (1014) NE 16 rain

[tolakram]

[RL3AO]

Thats what I was thinking. At least initially though the land interaction should help keep the intensity down. It would probably be better for Irene to travel over Puerto Rico as a tropical storm rather than have her intensifying into a hurricane and raking the southern coastline of the islands.

Maybe good for Haiti and Cuba. Probably not as good for the SE US.

[RL3AO]

Going to be an interesting discussion at 11.

[Vortex]

ok yeah the center has just started passing St kits to the wnw.. winds just switched to the S also pressure 1002 mb !! yeah recon is missing the center.

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TKPK.html

10 AM (14) Aug 21 78 (26) 78 (26) 29.59 (1002) S 9 light rain
9 AM (13) Aug 21 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.74 (1007) ENE 9 rain showers
8 AM (12) Aug 21 75 (24) 75 (24) 29.77 (1008) NE 13 heavy rain
7 AM (11) Aug 21 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.94 (1014) NE 16 rain

Aric, she appears to be deepening quickly if that 29.59 verifies...Thats a substantial drop in one hour!

[Aric Dunn]

Going to be an interesting discussion at 11.

wonder if they are going to say anything at all about the 1002 mb pressure at St kits ... which by the way dropped from 1007 to 1002....

[Aric Dunn]

ok yeah the center has just started passing St kits to the wnw.. winds just switched to the S also pressure 1002 mb !! yeah recon is missing the center.

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TKPK.html

10 AM (14) Aug 21 78 (26) 78 (26) 29.59 (1002) S 9 light rain
9 AM (13) Aug 21 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.74 (1007) ENE 9 rain showers
8 AM (12) Aug 21 75 (24) 75 (24) 29.77 (1008) NE 13 heavy rain
7 AM (11) Aug 21 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.94 (1014) NE 16 rain

Aric, she appears to be deepening quickly if that 29.59 verifies...Thats a substantial drop in one hour!

well I actually think she had been that low from the start of recon. they just keep missing the center.. mostly due to land.

[RL3AO]

586
URNT15 KNHC 211425
AF300 0209A IRENE HDOB 25 20110821
141430 1619N 06325W 8429 01563 //// +173 //// 341016 018 020 001 01
141500 1618N 06326W 8429 01559 //// +173 //// 333014 014 019 000 01
141530 1617N 06327W 8421 01574 //// +170 //// 340014 015 021 000 01
141600 1615N 06329W 8434 01562 //// +170 //// 344015 016 019 001 01
141630 1614N 06330W 8425 01573 //// +166 //// 350015 015 019 001 01
141700 1612N 06332W 8436 01564 //// +165 //// 359017 017 023 001 01
141730 1611N 06333W 8426 01574 //// +162 //// 359018 018 021 001 01
141800 1609N 06335W 8433 01567 //// +161 //// 359018 019 014 001 01
141830 1608N 06337W 8429 01574 //// +163 //// 001016 017 017 000 05
141900 1606N 06338W 8423 01579 //// +161 //// 004014 017 017 002 05
141930 1605N 06340W 8438 01563 //// +164 //// 009012 015 017 001 01
142000 1603N 06341W 8426 01576 //// +164 //// 003016 016 015 000 01
142030 1602N 06343W 8429 01573 //// +157 //// 004017 017 014 001 01
142100 1600N 06344W 8434 01569 //// +157 //// 007019 019 017 000 01
142130 1559N 06346W 8426 01577 //// +160 //// 014018 019 017 000 05
142200 1557N 06347W 8433 01569 //// +158 //// 017018 019 019 000 01
142230 1556N 06349W 8426 01576 //// +155 //// 017020 020 018 000 01
142300 1554N 06350W 8431 01570 //// +155 //// 024018 019 017 000 01
142330 1553N 06352W 8432 01571 //// +160 //// 026019 019 018 000 01
142400 1551N 06354W 8427 01575 //// +162 //// 017020 020 014 001 01
$$
;

[hurricaneCW]

Could be very Floyd-esque come landfall, once its inner core gets figured out, all bets are off and if the center continues relocating a bit north, it may only skirt the northern coast of Hispaniola and avoid major land interaction. Also this is looking like a fairly large system and it could mean heavy flooding impacts. If it goes up the coast, we've had very rains in the past few days and we could see major flooding if it goes up the coast like the gfs suggests.

[cycloneye]

Next pass is SW to NE?

[cpdaman]

ok yeah the center has just started passing St kits to the wnw.. winds just switched to the S also pressure 1002 mb !! yeah recon is missing the center.

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TKPK.html

10 AM (14) Aug 21 78 (26) 78 (26) 29.59 (1002) S 9 light rain
9 AM (13) Aug 21 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.74 (1007) ENE 9 rain showers
8 AM (12) Aug 21 75 (24) 75 (24) 29.77 (1008) NE 13 heavy rain
7 AM (11) Aug 21 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.94 (1014) NE 16 rain

Very impressive. Aric im on cell but what co-ordinates do U eyeball the center at. Thanks

[tolakram]

[RL3AO]

755
URNT15 KNHC 211434
AF300 0209A IRENE HDOB 26 20110821
142430 1549N 06355W 8430 01573 //// +163 //// 013019 020 015 001 01
142500 1548N 06357W 8425 01577 //// +160 //// 014019 020 015 001 05
142530 1546N 06358W 8437 01568 //// +163 //// 014017 017 017 000 01
142600 1545N 06400W 8421 01584 //// +160 //// 021017 018 018 001 01
142630 1543N 06401W 8433 01569 //// +162 //// 012018 018 018 000 05
142700 1541N 06402W 8425 01579 //// +165 //// 008018 019 /// /// 05
142730 1540N 06400W 8430 01574 //// +160 //// 015012 013 011 002 05
142800 1541N 06358W 8430 01575 //// +164 //// 014009 009 018 001 01
142830 1541N 06356W 8430 01574 //// +165 //// 014008 009 018 000 01
142900 1541N 06354W 8429 01576 //// +169 //// 013009 009 017 000 01
142930 1542N 06352W 8429 01575 //// +169 //// 003007 008 017 000 01
143000 1542N 06350W 8429 01575 //// +170 //// 356009 010 016 000 01
143030 1542N 06348W 8432 01573 //// +171 //// 354009 009 015 000 01
143100 1542N 06346W 8428 01577 //// +169 //// 343008 009 014 002 05
143130 1542N 06344W 8430 01574 //// +168 //// 343008 009 010 001 01
143200 1543N 06342W 8430 01575 //// +165 //// 351007 009 015 000 01
143230 1544N 06340W 8428 01576 //// +160 //// 349006 006 015 001 01
143300 1545N 06338W 8430 01574 //// +160 //// 343007 007 015 000 05
143330 1545N 06336W 8430 01574 //// +160 //// 357009 009 017 000 05
143400 1545N 06334W 8428 01575 //// +161 //// 352007 008 017 000 01
$$
;

[Aric Dunn]

ok yeah the center has just started passing St kits to the wnw.. winds just switched to the S also pressure 1002 mb !! yeah recon is missing the center.

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TKPK.html

10 AM (14) Aug 21 78 (26) 78 (26) 29.59 (1002) S 9 light rain
9 AM (13) Aug 21 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.74 (1007) ENE 9 rain showers
8 AM (12) Aug 21 75 (24) 75 (24) 29.77 (1008) NE 13 heavy rain
7 AM (11) Aug 21 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.94 (1014) NE 16 rain

Very impressive. Aric im on cell but what co-ordinates do U eyeball the center at. Thanks

about 17.2N 062.6W

[tolakram]

[stormreader]

Could be very Floyd-esque come landfall, once its inner core gets figured out, all bets are off and if the center continues relocating a bit north, it may only skirt the northern coast of Hispaniola and avoid major land interaction. Also this is looking like a fairly large system and it could mean heavy flooding impacts. If it goes up the coast, we've had very rains in the past few days and we could see major flooding if it goes up the coast like the gfs suggests.

I don't know about Floyd, but judging from the last sat images it looks like she's really beginning to wind up. Last pressure given I think was 1006 mb (29.68) at 5 PM. Has to have dropped off some since then.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/vis-l.jpg

[Riptide]

Recon going for a SE to NW pass?

[Aric Dunn]

Recon going for a SE to NW pass?

since they keep avoiding the center... and its now past st kits.. they might accidentally pass through it this time lol

[SFLcane]

ok yeah the center has just started passing St kits to the wnw.. winds just switched to the S also pressure 1002 mb !! yeah recon is missing the center.

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TKPK.html

10 AM (14) Aug 21 78 (26) 78 (26) 29.59 (1002) S 9 light rain
9 AM (13) Aug 21 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.74 (1007) ENE 9 rain showers
8 AM (12) Aug 21 75 (24) 75 (24) 29.77 (1008) NE 13 heavy rain
7 AM (11) Aug 21 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.94 (1014) NE 16 rain

Very impressive. Aric im on cell but what co-ordinates do U eyeball the center at. Thanks

about 17.2N 062.6W

Last recon fix i saw had it up 16.9N BUT if your right the chance of this missing sfl might be increasing i would think.

[micktooth]

Dr Master's Intensity Forecast from Wunderground:

Intensity forecast for Irene
Irene is embedded in a large envelope of moisture now, and wind shear will remain low, 5 - 10 knots, for the next five days. With water temperatures very warm, 28 - 30°C, these conditions should allow for intensification except when land is interfering. Irene's current appearance on satellite loops gives me the impression of a storm that is not fooling around, and I expect Irene will be a hurricane before hitting Hispaniola on Monday. Passage over Hispaniola will not destroy Irene, since it is a fairly large storm. Once the storm finishes with Hispaniola, it will have to deal with Cuba, which will keep Irene from intensifying significantly. Once Irene pops off the coast of Cuba Wednesday or Thursday into the Florida Straits, Irene will likely be a tropical storm. If the storm then has at least a day over water before hitting land, it will likely become a hurricane again, and could become a major hurricane if it ends up missing South Florida and moving over the warm waters on either side of the Florida Peninsula.

The above post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.