ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Tropicswatcher]

Seems like Maria it's running on life support!

[artist]

[artist]

Dropsonde Observations
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
UZNT13 KNHC 100159
XXAA 60028 99146 70593 04249 99009 27432 08508 00081 26627 06007
92766 20803 05507 85495 16236 06504 88999 77999
31313 09608 80149
61616 AF307 0314A MARIA OB 06
62626 SPL 1464N05934W 0150 MBL WND 06507 AEV 20802 DLM WND 05507
008843 WL150 06507 084 REL 1464N05933W 014900 SPG 1464N05934W 015
044 =
XXBB 60028 99146 70593 04249 00009 27432 11903 19604 22850 16236
33843 15444
21212 00009 08508 11921 05506 22910 04509 33858 06504 44843 06003
31313 09608 80149
61616 AF307 0314A MARIA OB 06
62626 SPL 1464N05934W 0150 MBL WND 06507 AEV 20802 DLM WND 05507
008843 WL150 06507 084 REL 1464N05933W 014900 SPG 1464N05934W 015
044 =

[tobol.7uno]

Very interesting how Florida has never been hit by a storm that formed in the area that Maria formed in recorded history.

[artist]

URNT15 KNHC 100203
AF307 0314A MARIA HDOB 20 20110910
015330 1431N 05925W 8417 01584 //// +171 //// 358015 016 002 000 01
015400 1429N 05926W 8431 01576 //// +167 //// 010008 010 003 000 01
015430 1428N 05928W 8430 01574 //// +169 //// 023005 006 004 000 01
015500 1427N 05929W 8434 01573 //// +172 //// 018005 006 007 000 01
015530 1425N 05931W 8424 01583 //// +180 //// 073001 002 010 000 01
015600 1424N 05932W 8429 01578 //// +176 //// 033001 003 012 000 01
015630 1422N 05933W 8434 01573 //// +176 //// 347003 004 010 000 01
015700 1421N 05935W 8425 01582 //// +174 //// 003004 005 009 000 01
015730 1420N 05936W 8429 01578 //// +172 //// 351003 004 011 000 01
015800 1418N 05938W 8430 01577 //// +170 //// 329004 005 009 000 01
015830 1417N 05939W 8427 01578 //// +170 //// 341005 005 009 000 01
015900 1416N 05941W 8431 01576 //// +180 //// 342002 004 010 000 01
015930 1414N 05942W 8429 01578 //// +180 //// 355004 005 007 000 01
020000 1413N 05944W 8430 01576 //// +182 //// 026004 005 010 000 01
020030 1412N 05945W 8429 01580 //// +186 //// 350002 004 013 000 01
020100 1410N 05946W 8428 01579 //// +190 //// 251001 002 012 000 01
020130 1409N 05948W 8432 01576 //// +188 //// 034001 001 009 000 01
020200 1408N 05949W 8434 01572 //// +186 //// 329001 002 010 000 01
020230 1406N 05951W 8428 01578 //// +182 //// 317005 005 010 000 01
020300 1405N 05952W 8425 01580 //// +182 //// 330005 006 012 000 01
$$

[Adoquín]

Coincides with Arics observation earlier.

[artist]

[artist]

URNT15 KNHC 100213
AF307 0314A MARIA HDOB 21 20110910
020330 1404N 05954W 8432 01575 //// +185 //// 344005 005 012 000 01
020400 1402N 05955W 8431 01575 //// +192 //// 026005 006 012 000 01
020430 1401N 05957W 8431 01578 //// +193 //// 032004 006 010 000 01
020500 1400N 05958W 8429 01578 //// +188 //// 356003 004 011 000 01
020530 1358N 05959W 8428 01578 //// +193 //// 010002 003 010 000 01
020600 1357N 06001W 8428 01581 //// +190 //// 046002 004 011 000 01
020630 1355N 06002W 8432 01575 //// +183 //// 042003 005 013 000 01
020700 1354N 06004W 8433 01575 //// +186 //// 059002 003 013 000 01
020730 1353N 06005W 8432 01577 //// +185 //// 088004 004 013 000 01
020800 1351N 06007W 8429 01579 //// +187 //// 091003 004 006 000 01
020830 1350N 06008W 8428 01580 //// +186 //// 108004 004 006 000 01
020900 1349N 06009W 8426 01582 //// +182 //// 077004 004 004 000 01
020930 1347N 06011W 8429 01580 //// +173 //// 079005 005 001 000 01
021000 1346N 06012W 8428 01579 //// +169 //// 083006 006 003 000 01
021030 1345N 06014W 8430 01578 //// +167 //// 083005 005 002 000 01
021100 1343N 06015W 8429 01578 //// +165 //// 082005 005 002 000 01
021130 1342N 06017W 8433 01577 //// +167 //// 074004 005 002 000 01
021200 1341N 06018W 8430 01577 //// +175 //// 051003 003 001 000 01
021230 1339N 06020W 8428 01580 //// +175 //// 036004 004 001 000 01
021300 1338N 06021W 8430 01574 //// +174 //// 037005 005 002 000 01
$$

[artist]

[wjs3]

I think that is just tropical storms and just September. Still kind of freaky, though.

When you expand the search to all Tropical Cyclones and all months that passed within 65 NM of Maria's latest advisory, this is what you get...(hope I uploaded this right!)



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[artist]

wide view

[gatorcane]

Lots of storms have actually taken Maria's projected path in September it looks like so the track does not look that surprising

[artist]

000
URNT11 KNHC 100219
97779 02180 70134 60600 15300 99005 17//9 /2511
RMK AF307 0314A MARIA OB 07
SWS = 1 KTS
SW outbound
;

[tobol.7uno]

:uarrow: I think that is just tropical storms and just September. Still kind of freaky, though.

When you expand the search to all Tropical Cyclones and all months that passed within 65 NM of Maria's latest advisory, this is what you get...



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Ahh, that is a little different! Just thought that one was interesting.

[wjs3]

I thought it was interesting too--However you slice it, that is a lot of tracks to have missed Florida over all those years.

[artist]

URNT15 KNHC 100223
AF307 0314A MARIA HDOB 22 20110910
021330 1336N 06023W 8430 01577 //// +173 //// 022004 005 001 000 01
021400 1335N 06024W 8430 01577 //// +173 //// 005003 004 004 000 01
021430 1334N 06025W 8427 01579 //// +169 //// 022005 005 001 000 01
021500 1332N 06027W 8430 01575 //// +167 //// 019005 006 001 000 01
021530 1331N 06028W 8429 01576 //// +163 //// 019006 007 002 000 01
021600 1330N 06030W 8434 01572 //// +166 //// 026002 003 000 000 01
021630 1328N 06031W 8430 01577 //// +166 //// 009001 002 000 000 01
021700 1327N 06033W 8430 01575 //// +170 //// 332001 001 002 000 01
021730 1326N 06034W 8429 01577 //// +170 //// 340002 002 001 000 01
021800 1324N 06035W 8425 01584 //// +171 //// 354001 002 001 000 01
021830 1323N 06037W 8429 01581 //// +170 //// 028002 003 002 000 01
021900 1322N 06038W 8430 01580 //// +170 //// 025001 002 001 000 05
021930 1320N 06039W 8428 01584 //// +169 //// 302002 002 /// /// 05
022000 1318N 06039W 8432 01581 //// +165 //// 240003 004 /// /// 05
022030 1318N 06037W 8430 01581 //// +166 //// 204005 005 002 000 05
022100 1318N 06035W 8430 01578 //// +169 //// 197006 006 002 000 05
022130 1319N 06033W 8433 01573 //// +170 //// 213006 007 002 000 05
022200 1319N 06031W 8430 01574 //// +173 //// 231007 008 001 000 01
022230 1319N 06029W 8430 01575 //// +175 //// 231009 009 001 000 01
022300 1319N 06027W 8429 01577 //// +174 //// 230009 010 000 000 01

[artist]

[artist]

URNT15 KNHC 100233
AF307 0314A MARIA HDOB 23 20110910
022330 1319N 06025W 8433 01570 //// +170 //// 226008 008 000 000 01
022400 1319N 06023W 8430 01574 //// +170 //// 225008 008 000 000 01
022430 1319N 06021W 8428 01574 //// +170 //// 211009 010 000 000 01
022500 1319N 06019W 8430 01573 //// +170 //// 207010 010 000 000 01
022530 1319N 06017W 8429 01571 //// +170 //// 208010 010 000 000 01
022600 1319N 06015W 8430 01571 //// +170 //// 206009 009 000 000 01
022630 1319N 06013W 8429 01573 //// +171 //// 207008 009 000 000 05
022700 1319N 06011W 8428 01573 //// +174 //// 208008 008 000 000 05
022730 1320N 06009W 8431 01568 //// +175 //// 210009 010 000 000 01
022800 1321N 06007W 8430 01569 //// +175 //// 209011 011 000 000 01
022830 1322N 06005W 8429 01570 //// +175 //// 207012 012 000 000 01
022900 1323N 06003W 8429 01570 //// +173 //// 208010 011 000 000 01
022930 1324N 06001W 8430 01571 //// +171 //// 206010 010 000 000 01
023000 1324N 06000W 8430 01571 //// +170 //// 201010 011 000 000 05
023030 1325N 05958W 8429 01569 //// +168 //// 203009 010 000 000 05
023100 1326N 05956W 8430 01569 //// +165 //// 202009 010 000 000 05
023130 1327N 05954W 8429 01573 //// +165 //// 190009 009 000 000 05
023200 1329N 05953W 8429 01571 //// +161 //// 189011 011 000 000 01
023230 1330N 05951W 8433 01570 //// +167 //// 182010 011 000 000 01
023300 1331N 05950W 8432 01571 //// +170 //// 174011 011 000 000 01

[rjgator]

2004 was a rare event for Florida. It may be another 200 years for something like that to happen. To get a Cape Verde system to hit the United States, even Florida, is generally quite difficult as the ridging must be setup just right for that to happen, and most of the time there are sufficient number of mid-continental troughs to break it down just enough to allow recurvature or the ridging is there but there is too much shear so the system doesn't develop and only impacts as a Tropical wave.. Of course some sneak through like Andrew....but generally quite rare. After the 1940s...not many MAJOR hurricane impacted Florida when you think about it.

Most of Florida's systems hit from the south or southwest (e.g. Wilma, Fay...etc), not the east anyway. Probably time to look to the Western/Central Caribbean if there are going to be any Florida threats this season...

I seem to remember as a kid growing up that we rarely got a Hurricane strike here in SE Florida.
It seemed very common that storms would do just what they are doing this season, recurve by the Bahamas.
More often, it seemed; that they would hit or brush the outer banks on their way out.
Or they would travel through the Carib. cross Western Cuba or the Yucatan and be a GOM threat.
Those instances, Betsy, Cleo, David Andrew,Frances, Jeanne, Katrina; seemed to be more the exception than the rule.

I am speaking off the cuff of my recollections. I've not gone through and looked at specific years and history just what I remember. I do specifically remember when I was growing up that I was quite a wonderful forecaster and loved getting struck by storms.
That was of course, until I became an adult, a homeowner and financially responsible which now makes a hurricane strike just the opposite a thrill. I wishcast them away!!!

You would enjoy reading these two books:

Florida's Hurricane History by Jay Barnes
http://www.amazon.com/Floridas-Hurrican ... 0807847488

Florida Hurricanes and Tropical Storms: JOHN M. WILLIAMS with Iver Duedall
http://www.amazon.com/Florida-Hurricane ... pd_sim_b_1

The second text has a really good breakdown of T.C. tracks around Florida by decade.

Quoting from the first text and adding some adlib.

From 1900-1997 57 hurricanes made landfall in Florida. "Far more than any other state for this period"
"Some of the more powerful storms struck in the first part of the century, " Few major storms hit from 1960-1980s

"However there was a few notable exceptions, Donna 1960 was one of this century’s most powerful hurricanes, Betsy Dora, Eloise, and Elena.

But unlike recent decade Florida was battered in the 20s,30s, and 40s,. Imagine the costs of the damage if this scenario was to play out nowadays. 1926 Great Miami Hurricane Cat 4 373 dead, 112 mil in damage, 1928 Okeechobee Hurricane 1836 Dead in Florida and 1500 in Caribbean, 1929 Long Key Hurricane, Labor Day Hurricane of 1935, Fort Lauderdale Hurricane of 1947, Delray Beach Hurricane of 1949 and hurricane King in 1950. From 1926 - 1929 the Florida coast from the Keys to West Palm Beach was destroyed by Major Hurricanes only to be hit again in 1935, 1947 and 1949 in almost the exact same spots. Most of these all hit in September.

I strongly suggest purchasing these texts if you are in to Tropical Weather at all as they are great reading and very informative.

[artist]