ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[plasticup]

If she does jump a little north she may miss Hispaniola, which would have a major influence on the intensity forecast.

[cycloneye]

Aric,it looks more and more that PR will get a direct hit if this trend continues. Keep the updates comming of where the center is as is crucial at this time not only for PR but downstream.

[CrazyC83]

If she does jump a little north she may miss Hispaniola, which would have a major influence on the intensity forecast.

Such a track might open up an opportunity for recurving as well...

[Aric Dunn]

It appears to be right about on top of St kits.

Not good for PR and probably not good for the US (and Bahamas).

well at this rate PR may end up getting the weaker side of the storm and drier.. will see though .. could start going back west soon or wobble a little more wnw..

[RL3AO]

960
URNT15 KNHC 211354
AF300 0209A IRENE HDOB 22 20110821
134430 1728N 06214W 8426 01557 //// +149 //// 137045 048 041 005 01
134500 1727N 06215W 8432 01548 //// +157 //// 140047 049 042 004 01
134530 1726N 06216W 8430 01547 //// +153 //// 144047 048 043 004 01
134600 1725N 06217W 8425 01548 //// +156 //// 146047 048 046 005 01
134630 1723N 06219W 8440 01534 //// +154 //// 148044 046 045 004 01
134700 1722N 06220W 8436 01541 //// +152 //// 148045 046 041 005 01
134730 1721N 06221W 8423 01552 //// +145 //// 148045 046 041 007 01
134800 1720N 06222W 8430 01536 //// +150 //// 152045 045 041 005 01
134830 1719N 06223W 8432 01536 //// +151 //// 153045 045 040 004 05
134900 1718N 06224W 8425 01539 //// +150 //// 155045 045 038 005 01
134930 1717N 06225W 8429 01536 //// +149 //// 157043 044 040 006 01
135000 1716N 06226W 8430 01535 //// +148 //// 157041 042 040 004 01
135030 1715N 06226W 8429 01536 //// +151 //// 161038 039 038 004 01
135100 1713N 06227W 8427 01539 //// +141 //// 166031 033 038 005 01
135130 1712N 06228W 8427 01540 //// +140 //// 166027 029 037 007 01
135200 1711N 06229W 8428 01536 //// +143 //// 167023 025 035 006 01
135230 1709N 06230W 8441 01525 //// +140 //// 177019 020 034 006 01
135300 1708N 06231W 8425 01541 //// +139 //// 183020 021 034 010 01
135330 1707N 06231W 8431 01535 //// +142 //// 186021 023 029 004 01
135400 1706N 06232W 8431 01536 //// +159 //// 181018 020 027 003 01
$$
;

[plasticup]

If she does jump a little north she may miss Hispaniola, which would have a major influence on the intensity forecast.

Such a track might open up an opportunity for recurving as well...

Right, because the stronger hurricane would feel the weakness more intensely. Although I think it is equally likely that a stronger Irene would miss Florida but still end up in South Carolina.

[MiamiensisWx]

Some statistics according to TC climatology for the month of August:

From 1851 to 2009, sixteen tropical storms passed within 100 nm (115 mi) of 26.5N, 62.0W - Irene's current position. All had at least some interaction with Hispaniola, and seven (44%) crossed the island, including five TSs. Of the sixteen storms, eight (50%) became hurricanes, of which five were major - two (40%) Category 3 and three (60%) Category 4. All of the majors reached that intensity in either the Caribbean or the Gulf of the Mexico. Two (40%) hit the U.S. as major hurricanes, and a third system (20%) struck the northern Gulf as a minimal hurricane in 1950. In all, of the sixteen systems, five (31%) struck the U.S., including two TSs - one in TX and another in S FL. The remaining systems either hit Central America or (mostly) passed east of the U.S., but nevertheless affected the Bahamas or other land masses.

Of the seven systems that crossed Hispaniola, three (43%) eventually became hurricanes, and four (57%) dissipated due to land interaction. Just one (14%) struck S FL. However, the tracks of all sixteen systems placed S FL near the center of the total spread. Based upon climatology, therefore, the NHC's current track appears quite reasonable. Irene may deviate slightly to the east, but I wouldn't expect any large shifts, given the strong, rebuilding ridge progged by the models about T+96.

Source: http://www.csc.noaa.gov/hurricanes/

[RL3AO]

Recon missed the center to the east.

[johngaltfla]

Aric,it looks more and more that PR will get a direct hit if this trend continues. Keep the updates comming of where the center is as is crucial at this time not only for PR but downstream.

I've been down there after a hurricane and it's a nightmare what it does there. Good luck to everyone down there.

It does open up some interesting possibilities if the ridge to the north stays strong. The 1800 model runs should be fascinating after all the recon data has been input.

[tolakram]

Looks like they need to turn or miss to the east of the center.

[Aric Dunn]

Aric,it looks more and more that PR will get a direct hit if this trend continues. Keep the updates comming of where the center is as is crucial at this time not only for PR but downstream.

Will do looks like you will be ok this time. the dry slot has check her in check overnight so only modest strengthening today if convection can build soon.

[cpdaman]

It also seems the center relocations r causing recon to b missing alot of ne quad squalls since it flew to only about 18N for its Ne flight point. With deep convection between 18-19N going unsampled

[cycloneye]

tolakram, they missed the center to the east.

[Aric Dunn]

Recon missed the center to the east.

likely had no choice. the center appears to be right over the islands of st kits. cant fly over it.

[RL3AO]

They had to go around Nevis since it has a 1000m mountain.

[tolakram]

That puts the center NE of the last fix, as expected. Irene needs to settle down and start moving west!

[bahamaswx]

Looking good. When she flares a real CDO... watch out!

[RL3AO]

tolakram, they missed the center to the east.

Flying over 1000m mountains in a thunderstorm when you're at 1500m isn't the smartest plan. I'll give them a break.

[Aric Dunn]

Irene starting to show up on long range PR radar.

[tolakram]

pffft, just a silly volcano.