WPAC: NESAT - Tropical Storm (20W)

[dexterlabio]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fvbXHI8D97I&feature=share[/youtube]

View of the storm surge in Manila Bay from a building. Credits to Paul Go who captured this event.

[euro6208]

been away for 2 days. it looks like i missed out on all the fun !




at nesat's peak, CI# was around 130 knots category 4 while AdjT# went as high as category 5 strength! even higher than hilary for both CI and AdjT!

nesat had a very impressive radar and microwave imagery before and at landfall so i would estimate nesat's peak intensity at 135 knots 1 minute winds with a landfalling intensity of 125 knots category 4 !




They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[euro6208]

it looks like nesat passed very close to my family and relatives in pangasinan. hopefully they are safe.




CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.5 / 949.3mb/102.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.1 5.3 5.0

[RobWESTPACWX]

The flooding along the US Embassy is also attributed to a storm surge from Manila Bay. O_O When I was a kid we always pass by that area and have a picnic at the Rizal Park, I didn't know that the baywalk area can have something like this.

In Quezon City, LOTS of fallen trees and signboards. I was in a mall to have our cellphones charged and on my way to ride home, the lettering of the mall's name in the building was taken off by the strong winds and it almost got us if we weren't running quick. Ultimate storm experience.

Anyways, if the condition here in Metro Manila is severe, I wonder how bad it is on the areas where the eye actually passed through. To makes things worse, many rivers in Metro Manila are upwelling especially the Marikina River and several dams are already releasing water as they breached critical level.

Agreed on the Baywalk area, I know Manila Bay has a large fetch area. And with every time I been to this region the calm and tranquil waters over the bay would make you think this is highly unlikely. (Yet the GOM is usually calm and we all know what tropicals can do there)

[RobWESTPACWX]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fvbXHI8D97I&feature=share[/youtube]

View of the storm surge in Manila Bay from a building. Credits to Paul Go who captured this event.

Credits for real, great capture

[RobWESTPACWX]

The surge out of the bay is amazing, anybody know how the Mall of Asia faired up ( I only ask because that is a landmark there)

[dexterlabio]

The surge out of the bay is amazing, anybody know how the Mall of Asia faired up ( I only ask because that is a landmark there)

People who went there this morning posted pictures but showing only limited captures of the damages. It's weird that the security personnels prevented the media from entering the mall.

[RobWESTPACWX]

That is odd, maybe they think if they show damage it will effect business somehow.

[dexterlabio]

^After all, business is what matters most. lol. Even in the mall (also an SM Mall) where I went this afternoon, the security guards didn't allow bystanders to take pictures of the damages.

[Chacor]

WTPQ20 RJTD 271500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1117 NESAT (1117)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 271500UTC 16.7N 118.5E FAIR
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 300NM NORTH 220NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 281500UTC 18.2N 114.4E 75NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 291200UTC 19.2N 111.7E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
69HF 301200UTC 20.0N 108.5E 160NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =

[oaba09]

We still don't have electricity at home(I'm currently in the office). The roof on our porch got destroyed(I ended up fixing the damn thing during the onslaught of nesat)...

[RobWESTPACWX]

Subic Bay saw 435mm of rain, or 17inches, intense!

[HurricaneBill]

Manila cleans up after typhoon rains kill 18

[dexterlabio]

This storm is good combination of wind and rain, though the rains were not as spectacular as those from Ketsana...only that the rainfall from Nesat was almost non-stop for the whole day.

Good thing that the rivers began subsiding as Nesat leaves the Philippines. Water level of Marikina River was at 19m last night, only 4 meters shy of the water level during Ketsana's onslaught, but now it's down to 17m.

[euro6208]

WTPN31 PGTW 280300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 20W (NESAT) WARNING NR 019
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z --- NEAR 17.6N 116.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6N 116.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 18.3N 114.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 19.0N 112.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 19.7N 110.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 20.0N 109.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 20.8N 106.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 21.2N 104.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
280300Z POSITION NEAR 17.8N 116.1E.
TYPHOON 20W (NESAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 640 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z IS 24 FT.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 280900Z, 281500Z, 282100Z AND 290300Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL STORM 22W (NALGAE) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN


WDPN31 PGTW 280300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 20W (NESAT) WARNING NR 19//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TYPHOON (TY) 20W (NESAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 640 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS LOST SOME OF THE CONVECTION ON THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT DUE TO SUBSIDENCE. HOWEVER, CONVECTIVE BANDING FROM THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY REMAINS ROBUST AND TIGHT. THE INITIAL POSITION
WAS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND FROM A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE
ON A 272218Z SSSMIS PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS SUPPORTED BY
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TY 20W IS SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF
MODERATE (15-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW BUT WEAK POLEWARD
OUTFLOW DUE TO SUBSIDENCE CAUSED BY A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO
THE NORTHWEST. TY 20W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND IS EXPTECTED TO
REMAIN ON THIS TRACK FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WELL IN EXCESS OF 28
CELSIUS AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW WILL OFFSET THE MODERATE VWS
AND SUBSIDENCE AND PROMOTE SOME INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS. AFTER THE SYSTEM CROSSES INTO HAINAN, TYPHOON NESAT WILL
RAPIDLY WEAKEN, DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND INCREASING VWS, BEFORE
IT MAKES ONE FINAL LANDFALL JUST SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM. THE
AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE,
THIS TRACK FORECAST IS IN UNISON WITH MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN




forecast to strengthen while headed for hainan island then makes a 3rd landfall in vietnam!!

[euro6208]

really organized!

[euro6208]

nesat since birth...

[oaba09]

We in metro manila were actually shocked at how powerful nesat's winds are....We were not expecting what happened because the projected landfall location is quite far....This says a lot about the size of this syetem...

[euro6208]

the philippines was lucky that dry air got entrained into nesat. nesat would have made landfall as a category 4 or maybe 5 storm...

[windysocks]

Quite windy in HK now, but not a drop of rain yet where I am!