Looking like an MH
EPAC: DORA - Remnants
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Yellow Evan
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Battlebrick
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Re: EPAC: DORA - Hurricane
looks like 2011 adrian
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Lim_Fao on IRC.
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Looks like a major tome as well, looks like that long advertised possible RI has occured, very impressive looking system now!
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Re: EPAC: DORA - Hurricane
No surprise here.
...DORA BECOMES THE SECOND MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC
SEASON...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 104.2W
ABOUT 220 MI...350 KM SW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
ABOUT 355 MI...565 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MEXICO FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
...DORA BECOMES THE SECOND MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC
SEASON...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 104.2W
ABOUT 220 MI...350 KM SW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
ABOUT 355 MI...565 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MEXICO FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
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NOTICE: I cannot give an expert analysis. Most of my "observations" are made visually with the help of only vital information provided by public advisories.
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: DORA - Hurricane
HURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042011
200 PM PDT WED JUL 20 2011
DORA IS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING. RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THAT AN EYE HAS FORMED WITH INTENSE CONVECTION IN THE EYEWALL
AND OCCASIONAL HINTS OF MESOVORTICES WITHIN THE EYE. DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 102 AND 90 KT RESPECTIVELY...WITH
THE OBJECTIVE NUMBERS FROM UW-CIMSS AT 115 KT. A BLEND OF THESE
DATA GIVES AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 100 KT...MAKING DORA THE SECOND
MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE 2011 EASTERN PACIFIC SEASON.
NOW THAT THE INNER CORE HAS SOLIDIFIED...DORA WILL PROBABLY
INTENSIFY AT A RAPID RATE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO DUE TO CONDUCIVE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. ALL OF THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE NOW SHOW
DORA PEAKING NEAR OR AT CATEGORY 4 STATUS TOMORROW. IN FACT THE
SHIP RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX INDICATES A 46 PERCENT CHANCE OF A
40 KT INCREASE WITHIN 24 HOURS...A RATHER HIGH VALUE. FROM THE 1800
UTC ESTIMATED INTENSITY OF 95 KT...THE NHC FORECAST WILL BE MORE
CONSERVATIVE BUT STILL INDICATE A 24-HOUR PERIOD OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION. IN ABOUT TWO DAYS...SSTS FALL QUITE RAPIDLY...AND
SO SHOULD THE WINDS OF DORA. THE LATER PART OF THE NHC FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...AND DORA SHOULD BECOME
POST-TROPICAL BETWEEN DAYS 4 AND 5.
THE HURRICANE HAS SLOWED A BIT AND IS MOVING 295/14. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO THE WEAKENING OF A RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES. MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS...SAVE THE
HWRF...KEEP DORA WELL OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND ACTUALLY
TURN THE SYSTEM MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN ABOUT THREE DAYS.
THE OVERALL TRACK ENVELOPE CONTINUES TO SHIFT WESTWARD IN THE
LONGER RANGE...AND THE NEW NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN MOVED IN THAT
DIRECTION.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 20/2100Z 15.5N 104.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 16.5N 105.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 21/1800Z 17.7N 107.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 22/0600Z 18.7N 108.8W 115 KT 135 MPH
48H 22/1800Z 19.6N 109.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 23/1800Z 21.0N 112.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 24/1800Z 22.5N 116.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 25/1800Z 24.5N 119.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042011
200 PM PDT WED JUL 20 2011
DORA IS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING. RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THAT AN EYE HAS FORMED WITH INTENSE CONVECTION IN THE EYEWALL
AND OCCASIONAL HINTS OF MESOVORTICES WITHIN THE EYE. DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 102 AND 90 KT RESPECTIVELY...WITH
THE OBJECTIVE NUMBERS FROM UW-CIMSS AT 115 KT. A BLEND OF THESE
DATA GIVES AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 100 KT...MAKING DORA THE SECOND
MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE 2011 EASTERN PACIFIC SEASON.
NOW THAT THE INNER CORE HAS SOLIDIFIED...DORA WILL PROBABLY
INTENSIFY AT A RAPID RATE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO DUE TO CONDUCIVE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. ALL OF THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE NOW SHOW
DORA PEAKING NEAR OR AT CATEGORY 4 STATUS TOMORROW. IN FACT THE
SHIP RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX INDICATES A 46 PERCENT CHANCE OF A
40 KT INCREASE WITHIN 24 HOURS...A RATHER HIGH VALUE. FROM THE 1800
UTC ESTIMATED INTENSITY OF 95 KT...THE NHC FORECAST WILL BE MORE
CONSERVATIVE BUT STILL INDICATE A 24-HOUR PERIOD OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION. IN ABOUT TWO DAYS...SSTS FALL QUITE RAPIDLY...AND
SO SHOULD THE WINDS OF DORA. THE LATER PART OF THE NHC FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...AND DORA SHOULD BECOME
POST-TROPICAL BETWEEN DAYS 4 AND 5.
THE HURRICANE HAS SLOWED A BIT AND IS MOVING 295/14. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO THE WEAKENING OF A RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES. MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS...SAVE THE
HWRF...KEEP DORA WELL OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND ACTUALLY
TURN THE SYSTEM MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN ABOUT THREE DAYS.
THE OVERALL TRACK ENVELOPE CONTINUES TO SHIFT WESTWARD IN THE
LONGER RANGE...AND THE NEW NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN MOVED IN THAT
DIRECTION.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 20/2100Z 15.5N 104.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 16.5N 105.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 21/1800Z 17.7N 107.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 22/0600Z 18.7N 108.8W 115 KT 135 MPH
48H 22/1800Z 19.6N 109.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 23/1800Z 21.0N 112.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 24/1800Z 22.5N 116.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 25/1800Z 24.5N 119.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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Re: EPAC: DORA - Hurricane
I'm wondering if Category 5 can be ruled out yet...
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NOTICE: I cannot give an expert analysis. Most of my "observations" are made visually with the help of only vital information provided by public advisories.
Re: EPAC: DORA - Hurricane
Fyzn94 wrote:I'm wondering if Category 5 can be ruled out yet...
Certainly possible, though at the moment I'd say a high end Cat-4 is probably a more likely peak. The key to watch for is if it develops a totally clear eye, if it does then a run at 5 is possible.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Re: EPAC: DORA - Hurricane
I think that 125 kt is a good forecast, I'm not sure if it can reach cat 5 but if it does I think it will be the first time in history that 3 consecutive seasons have had a cat 5.
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Yellow Evan
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Re: EPAC: DORA - Hurricane
Macrocane wrote:I think that 125 kt is a good forecast, I'm not sure if it can reach cat 5 but if it does I think it will be the first time in history that 3 consecutive seasons have had a cat 5.
Until Celia 10, we never even had 2 strait season of Cat 5, BTW. Ships RI says 46% chance.
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Re: EPAC: DORA - Hurricane
With RI underway, the forecast is up to 145 mph. And they still give it ~10% chance of reaching Cat 5.
She needs to smooth out some of this raggedness though. That eye is squeezing all over the place right now
She needs to smooth out some of this raggedness though. That eye is squeezing all over the place right now
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Kingarabian
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Agree it has work to do to reach cat. 5.-
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Re: EPAC: DORA - Hurricane
Well...I will say I'm not surprised...but the party is just beginning. My indicator popped up between 8 am EDT and 9 am EDT. Sadly, I've been at work all day and I missed it. Through 12:45 pm, the indicator was still there...so this little episode we are seeing now is nothing compared to what we are going to see this evening/overnight! (By the way, between 2 pm PDT yesterday and 2 pm PDT today, Dora increased 40 knots.)
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Re: EPAC: DORA - Hurricane
plasticup wrote:With RI underway, the forecast is up to 145 mph. And they still give it ~10% chance of reaching Cat 5.
She needs to smooth out some of this raggedness though. That eye is squeezing all over the place right now
I think thats my main reason why I think this one won't make it in terms of becoming a category-5...but to be fair its got enough time to sort it out...
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: DORA - Hurricane
Cat 4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DORA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042011
500 PM PDT WED JUL 20 2011
...DORA CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN...NOW A CATEGORY 4
HURRICANE...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 104.8W
ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM SW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...27.99 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MEXICO FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DORA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.8 WEST. DORA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF DORA IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 135 MPH...215
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DORA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON FRIDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE WATCH AREA TONIGHT AND WITHIN THE REMAINDER OF THE
WATCH AREA BY THURSDAY.
SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY DORA WILL AFFECT THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DORA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042011
500 PM PDT WED JUL 20 2011
...DORA CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN...NOW A CATEGORY 4
HURRICANE...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 104.8W
ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM SW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...27.99 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MEXICO FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DORA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.8 WEST. DORA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF DORA IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 135 MPH...215
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DORA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON FRIDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE WATCH AREA TONIGHT AND WITHIN THE REMAINDER OF THE
WATCH AREA BY THURSDAY.
SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY DORA WILL AFFECT THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Re: EPAC: DORA - Hurricane
Yeah, I see it and now I believe it could reach cat 5 if the trend continues.
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