ATL: ARLENE - Remnants

[MississippiWx]

Really hard to break that upper ridging pattern, especially with so much heat and dryness over TX and the Southwest. It may be in place longer than we originally thought this summer.

[Extratropical94]

Observation 24, turning north


000
URNT15 KNHC 281940
AF308 01AAA INVEST HDOB 24 20110628
193030 2039N 09245W 9696 00333 0072 +228 +197 179024 025 032 003 03
193100 2039N 09244W 9697 00332 0073 +228 +200 180025 026 033 006 03
193130 2039N 09242W 9698 00332 0074 +221 +193 181025 026 /// /// 03
193200 2039N 09240W 9696 00333 0075 +215 +191 183027 029 /// /// 03
193230 2039N 09240W 9696 00333 0076 +215 +189 180029 029 /// /// 03
193300 2040N 09237W 9687 00345 0077 +213 +186 180027 028 /// /// 03
193330 2040N 09235W 9700 00332 0076 +225 +183 181027 028 /// /// 03
193400 2040N 09233W 9696 00336 0076 +226 +184 178027 027 /// /// 03
193430 2040N 09232W 9693 00339 0077 +227 +183 175027 027 /// /// 03
193500 2041N 09230W 9692 00340 0077 +226 +188 170028 028 /// /// 03
193530 2043N 09230W 9702 00333 0078 +225 +189 165027 028 /// /// 03
193600 2045N 09230W 9695 00338 0078 +225 +192 165027 028 /// /// 03
193630 2047N 09230W 9695 00339 0078 +225 +200 165028 029 /// /// 03
193700 2048N 09230W 9698 00336 0078 +226 +202 166028 029 /// /// 03
193730 2050N 09231W 9697 00336 0077 +225 +196 162027 027 /// /// 03
193800 2052N 09231W 9699 00335 0077 +225 +199 161028 029 /// /// 03
193830 2054N 09231W 9696 00337 0077 +225 +195 160028 029 /// /// 03
193900 2056N 09231W 9698 00335 0076 +225 +204 162028 028 /// /// 03
193930 2057N 09231W 9692 00340 0076 +228 +202 164028 028 /// /// 03
194000 2059N 09231W 9699 00334 0077 +226 +199 168025 026 /// /// 03
$$
;

[Extratropical94]

Observation 25


000
URNT15 KNHC 281950
AF308 01AAA INVEST HDOB 25 20110628
194030 2101N 09231W 9691 00342 0077 +225 +202 163025 025 /// /// 03
194100 2103N 09231W 9694 00339 0077 +225 +201 161025 026 /// /// 03
194130 2105N 09231W 9701 00333 0078 +225 +203 155025 025 /// /// 03
194200 2106N 09231W 9690 00343 0078 +225 +208 157026 026 /// /// 03
194230 2108N 09230W 9700 00335 0078 +225 +203 156026 027 /// /// 03
194300 2110N 09230W 9699 00336 0078 +225 +204 154027 028 /// /// 03
194330 2111N 09229W 9694 00340 0079 +225 +205 152028 029 /// /// 03
194400 2113N 09228W 9699 00335 0079 +225 +201 152029 030 /// /// 03
194430 2115N 09228W 9696 00338 0079 +225 +204 151029 030 /// /// 03
194500 2116N 09227W 9697 00339 0080 +225 +205 144027 028 /// /// 03
194530 2118N 09228W 9699 00337 0081 +225 +205 143028 029 /// /// 03
194600 2120N 09228W 9697 00339 0081 +224 +206 141028 029 /// /// 03
194630 2121N 09229W 9699 00339 0081 +223 +204 136027 027 /// /// 03
194700 2123N 09230W 9698 00338 0081 +225 +207 137029 030 /// /// 03
194730 2125N 09230W 9699 00337 0081 +225 +204 134029 030 /// /// 03
194800 2126N 09231W 9700 00336 0081 +225 +205 134032 033 /// /// 03
194830 2128N 09232W 9695 00343 0081 +225 +203 136033 033 /// /// 03
194900 2130N 09232W 9694 00341 0081 +225 +205 138032 033 /// /// 03
194930 2132N 09233W 9696 00340 0081 +225 +209 137030 031 /// /// 03
195000 2133N 09233W 9696 00340 0080 +225 +209 134027 027 /// /// 03
$$
;

[HURAKAN]

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING
THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WAS ABLE TO
LOCATE A LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT SUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED TO
DESIGNATE THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND THE LOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS
IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. INTERESTS ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF MEXICO IN THE STATES OF TAMAULIPAS AND VERACRUZ
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...AS A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS TONIGHT
OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS SHOULD
CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BERG

[South Texas Storms]

Wow so it is looking very likely that we will have tropical storm Arlene in the near future.

[Extratropical94]

/sign
Now even the NHC is clearly pointing at a TD/TS in the making with this special TWO

[South Texas Storms]

Will the data collected by the hurricane hunters today be in the 0z models tonight?

[Extratropical94]

Observation 26, going N to NNW

000
URNT15 KNHC 282000
AF308 01AAA INVEST HDOB 26 20110628
195030 2135N 09234W 9692 00342 0081 +225 +208 131027 028 /// /// 03
195100 2137N 09235W 9699 00336 0080 +227 +206 130029 030 /// /// 03
195130 2138N 09235W 9696 00341 0080 +227 +207 129031 032 /// /// 03
195200 2140N 09236W 9697 00337 0080 +226 +210 130030 032 /// /// 03
195230 2142N 09237W 9687 00348 0079 +223 +208 111033 036 /// /// 03
195300 2143N 09237W 9726 00312 0079 +224 +207 109034 035 /// /// 03
195330 2145N 09237W 9759 00281 0080 +213 +213 113034 034 /// /// 03
195400 2147N 09237W 9761 00281 0080 +227 +200 111033 034 /// /// 03
195430 2147N 09237W 9761 00281 0082 +225 +199 112033 034 /// /// 03
195500 2150N 09237W 9692 00346 0083 +222 +199 109033 033 /// /// 03
195530 2151N 09237W 9696 00341 0083 +221 +198 111033 034 /// /// 03
195600 2153N 09238W 9706 00333 0083 +216 +202 112034 039 /// /// 03
195630 2155N 09239W 9699 00337 0083 +217 +203 103035 037 /// /// 03
195700 2156N 09239W 9692 00345 0083 +218 +201 100037 038 /// /// 03
195730 2158N 09240W 9701 00336 0082 +220 +198 102037 038 /// /// 03
195800 2200N 09241W 9695 00344 0083 +216 +199 102038 040 /// /// 03
195830 2201N 09241W 9698 00338 0083 +219 +196 101039 040 /// /// 03
195900 2203N 09242W 9701 00336 0083 +219 +196 101039 040 /// /// 03
195930 2204N 09243W 9694 00344 0083 +220 +199 102040 041 031 000 03
200000 2206N 09243W 9694 00343 0082 +220 +192 102043 043 034 001 00
$$

43 knots at FL, estimated 34 kts at the surface
;

[cycloneye]

Will the data collected by the hurricane hunters today be in the 0z models tonight?

The answer is yes.

[MississippiWx]

I was wondering about convective organization. Still that slowly organizing system we thought it would be. One thing happens, then the next. We don't get everything organizing at once (i.e. circulation, thunderstorms, etc...) Should be a TD tonight, barring a total collapse of the circulation.

[piggy]

If the micro-UAV is too expensive to use for every flight, what about streaming video from a recon airplane.
I hear that they plan to install hi-def streaming video on the ISS, which should make for some spectacular
hurricane imagery. It would be great to have hi definition streaming video on a recon airplane.

[NDG]

43 knt flight level winds just found,unflagged.

[Frank2]

Pretty sure it'll be a TD by tonight or tomorrow morning - serves me right for saying June would probably be in the "zero" column - lost by just 2 days (if this does become TD1)!!!

Frank

[cyclogenesis]

June 28, 2011
this Tuesday afternoon
303 PM CDT


* * Tues, afternoon 230 PM, Aircraft reports * *


Gang -- For those interested in the Tues. afternoon, June 28th, 230 PM aircraft reports, I've placed a blurb on to my website, at:



http://cvamagic.tripod.com/







-- cyclogenesis

[Bobo2000]

34 kts

[Frank2]

Don't want to rain on anyone's parade (lol), but it seems to be opening up into a wave at this time, despite the recon observations of a very weak circulation center, because the weak center to the south has now dissipated and a larger line of convection is taking over and moving westward at a faster rate, almost wave-like:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

[Hurricane]

I'm thinking Arlene tomorrow.

[beagleagle23]

[Extratropical94]

Observation 27, going NNW, quite windy in that sector

000
URNT15 KNHC 282010
AF308 01AAA INVEST HDOB 27 20110628
200030 2208N 09244W 9694 00344 0082 +220 +199 102042 043 034 001 00
200100 2209N 09245W 9696 00341 0082 +220 +197 100042 043 034 001 00
200130 2211N 09245W 9699 00339 0082 +220 +200 102042 042 034 000 00
200200 2213N 09246W 9694 00343 0082 +220 +199 103041 042 034 000 00
200230 2214N 09246W 9700 00337 0083 +220 +202 101040 041 034 000 00
200300 2216N 09247W 9697 00342 0083 +221 +202 101040 041 033 000 00
200330 2217N 09248W 9697 00341 0083 +221 +206 101040 041 034 000 00
200400 2219N 09248W 9692 00349 0084 +221 +201 101040 041 033 000 00
200430 2221N 09249W 9695 00343 0084 +221 +204 101041 042 034 000 00
200500 2222N 09250W 9694 00345 0084 +220 +207 100042 042 034 001 00
200530 2224N 09250W 9696 00342 0084 +221 +208 101041 042 034 000 00
200600 2226N 09251W 9700 00340 0085 +220 +207 101042 044 035 000 00
200630 2227N 09252W 9697 00343 0086 +220 +207 101041 043 034 001 00
200700 2229N 09252W 9691 00350 0087 +220 +207 100041 042 036 000 00
200730 2230N 09253W 9698 00344 0087 +220 +210 100041 043 036 000 00
200800 2232N 09254W 9698 00343 0088 +223 +202 099040 041 036 000 00
200830 2234N 09254W 9694 00349 0089 +222 +206 098040 042 035 000 00
200900 2235N 09255W 9698 00346 0089 +222 +202 098039 040 034 000 00
200930 2237N 09256W 9698 00345 0089 +223 +202 098040 042 035 000 00
201000 2238N 09256W 9694 00350 0090 +224 +203 098039 040 033 000 00
$$
;
44 kt at FL, 36 kt at surface

[Extratropical94]

Observation 28, still going NNW

000
URNT15 KNHC 282020
AF308 01AAA INVEST HDOB 28 20110628
201030 2240N 09257W 9699 00346 0090 +224 +204 099038 039 033 000 00
201100 2242N 09258W 9699 00347 0091 +225 +209 099039 041 033 000 00
201130 2243N 09258W 9694 00352 0092 +225 +204 098038 040 033 000 00
201200 2245N 09259W 9698 00350 0093 +225 +206 096037 039 032 001 00
201230 2246N 09259W 9693 00354 0092 +224 +207 098038 039 032 000 00
201300 2248N 09300W 9696 00351 0092 +224 +207 098038 039 032 000 00
201330 2250N 09301W 9694 00352 0091 +225 +208 101039 040 034 000 00
201400 2251N 09301W 9697 00348 0091 +225 +211 101040 041 032 000 00
201430 2253N 09302W 9696 00350 0092 +225 +209 100038 040 031 000 00
201500 2254N 09303W 9691 00356 0093 +224 +210 097039 041 031 001 00
201530 2256N 09303W 9703 00344 0094 +224 +208 099038 039 030 000 00
201600 2258N 09304W 9696 00352 0095 +223 +209 099038 039 031 000 00
201630 2259N 09305W 9696 00353 0095 +222 +210 099039 040 031 000 00
201700 2301N 09305W 9697 00352 0096 +221 +207 098038 039 030 000 00
201730 2302N 09306W 9699 00351 0096 +221 +206 099038 039 031 000 00
201800 2304N 09307W 9700 00349 0096 +220 +208 097038 040 032 000 00
201830 2306N 09307W 9697 00353 0096 +221 +208 099039 041 033 000 00
201900 2307N 09308W 9699 00351 0096 +221 +208 100039 041 033 000 00
201930 2309N 09308W 9690 00360 0097 +222 +211 101039 040 033 001 00
202000 2310N 09309W 9697 00354 0098 +222 +207 099040 041 033 000 00
$$
;