ATL: IRENE - Models

[Ivanhater]

GFDL...SOUTH of Western Cuba and STRONG

HOUR: .0 LONG: -57.22 LAT: 14.44 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1004.85 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 40.10
HOUR: 6.0 LONG: -58.80 LAT: 14.84 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1001.67 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 54.43
HOUR: 12.0 LONG: -60.77 LAT: 15.33 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1000.36 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 53.31
HOUR: 18.0 LONG: -62.88 LAT: 15.81 MIN PRESS (hPa): 997.82 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 54.20
HOUR: 24.0 LONG: -64.59 LAT: 16.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 993.60 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 62.83
HOUR: 30.0 LONG: -66.30 LAT: 16.61 MIN PRESS (hPa): 985.96 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 76.30
HOUR: 36.0 LONG: -67.87 LAT: 16.79 MIN PRESS (hPa): 978.74 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 82.12
HOUR: 42.0 LONG: -69.46 LAT: 16.94 MIN PRESS (hPa): 971.33 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 89.53
HOUR: 48.0 LONG: -70.92 LAT: 17.15 MIN PRESS (hPa): 961.33 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):106.45
HOUR: 54.0 LONG: -72.28 LAT: 17.35 MIN PRESS (hPa): 954.60 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):104.04
HOUR: 60.0 LONG: -73.64 LAT: 17.58 MIN PRESS (hPa): 952.33 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):107.73
HOUR: 66.0 LONG: -74.86 LAT: 17.79 MIN PRESS (hPa): 948.83 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):107.80
HOUR: 72.0 LONG: -75.95 LAT: 17.88 MIN PRESS (hPa): 942.23 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):114.43
HOUR: 78.0 LONG: -76.92 LAT: 17.87 MIN PRESS (hPa): 941.82 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):109.23
HOUR: 84.0 LONG: -78.01 LAT: 18.01 MIN PRESS (hPa): 948.03 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):107.60
HOUR: 90.0 LONG: -79.00 LAT: 18.25 MIN PRESS (hPa): 945.67 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):113.95
HOUR: 96.0 LONG: -79.93 LAT: 18.54 MIN PRESS (hPa): 942.10 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):118.59
HOUR:102.0 LONG: -80.70 LAT: 18.88 MIN PRESS (hPa): 931.85 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):125.30
HOUR:108.0 LONG: -81.63 LAT: 19.38 MIN PRESS (hPa): 929.82 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):124.06
HOUR:114.0 LONG: -82.53 LAT: 19.98 MIN PRESS (hPa): 928.34 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):124.96
HOUR:120.0 LONG: -83.46 LAT: 20.66 MIN PRESS (hPa): 924.56 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):132.89
HOUR:126.0 LONG: -84.50 LAT: 21.32 MIN PRESS (hPa): 920.99 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):133.46

[psyclone]

Ivan's example track is exactly what i've been thinking as well although in an earlier post this morning i said dennis (2005) but farther east. that rare panama city/apalachicola/st george island hit wouldn't surprise me at all. should such an event occur, even if the storm isn't strong...if the windfield is big there could be quite a water rise in the big bend area. recall that st marks was inundated with 10 feet of water when dennis hit the western panhandle!

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Ivanhater]

GFDL through the Yucatan channel close to UKMET and Canadian

[Ivanhater]

[indian]

more of a westerly path if i am looking at that correctly

[AtlanticWind]

GFDL through the Yucatan channel close to UKMET and Canadian

For 6 straight runs it shows nothing ,then it bombs it out and moves it west? What has happened to the GFDL?

[tolakram]

Good grief, but does that include any of the recent recon data?

[SouthDadeFish]

Let's just say if the 18Z GFDL verifies.... It wouldn't be good.

[jinftl]

Irene is a good 200 miles north of where Ivan was at the same longitude. That is significant, esp with a trough expected to impact the storm in some way...not to mention landmasses that could rip her apart.

Irene is at 14.9N 58.5W, compared to:

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 11.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.5 WEST OR ABOUT 140 MILES...
230 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 140
MILES...225 KM...EAST OF TOBAGO.

Ivan's example track is exactly what i've been thinking as well although in an earlier post this morning i said dennis (2005) but farther east. that rare panama city/apalachicola/st george island hit wouldn't surprise me at all. should such an event occur, even if the storm isn't strong...if the windfield is big there could be quite a water rise in the big bend area. recall that st marks was inundated with 10 feet of water when dennis hit the western panhandle!

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Ivanhater]

GFDL is almost an exact track of Ivan

[Aric Dunn]

GFDL is almost an exact track of Ivan

and you came to that conclusion how ? lol

[red herring]

i still think there is a possibility of irene making it as far west as the upper texas coast

There is absolutely nothing that points in that direction and I think you may be trolling. Please stop.

The GFDL, UKMET, and Canadian point that way

[Tampa_God]

GFDL is almost an exact track of Ivan

Exactly the same thing I said when I saw the track.

[BigB0882]

Is this the first time GFDL has developed it? Wasn't it leaving it as an open wave for a long time?

[gatorcane]

:uarrow: Let's just say if the 18Z GFDL verifies.... It wouldn't be good.

Considering the GFDL didn't even pick up on the system for the past 4 or 5 runs, I would be highly suspect of the GFDL right now and treat it as an outlier. Let's see what the HWRF does.

[Ivanhater]

As far as skirting to the south of Jamaica and to the Yucatan

[indian]

i still think there is a possibility of irene making it as far west as the upper texas coast

There is absolutely nothing that points in that direction and I think you may be trolling. Please stop.

The GFDL, UKMET, and Canadian point that way

thank you!!!!

[thundercam96]

At the very end, what is the wind speed?

[ronjon]

That GFDL run is even outside of the cone of the NHC - might want to wait till the 00z run.

[KWT]

Wow that GFDL is nuts, goes down to something like 920mbs!!

Still, the models show a VERY favourable set-up aloft, given the amount of land interaction GFS/ECM show and still having it as a hurricane by landfall is ringing big alarm bells!