ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[cycloneye]

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
455 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO UPDATE DISCUSSION OF THE ELONGATED AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES.

UPDATED...COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEMS HAVE LIMITED THE AMOUNT OF DATA
RECEIVED FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES EAST OF THE
NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. HOWEVER...REPORTS FROM THE AIRCRAFT
...ALONG WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...INDICATE
THAT THE SYSTEM DOES NOT YET HAVE A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE
CIRCULATION. A SECOND AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS FORMED
TO THE WEST OF THE MAIN DISTURBANCE...AND WILL BRING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
TONIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM TO FORM...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS
A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15
MPH. IF THE SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONE TONIGHT OR MONDAY
...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS WOULD BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON VERY
SHORT NOTICE...AND INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ANOTHER HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM MONDAY MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/FRANKLIN

[Aric Dunn]

18z NAm big difference in ridge... and trough compared to 12z..

18z


12z

[KWT]

Still a weakness present but the ridge does build back westwards a little bit as the weakness...well weakens!

That pattern would see it get into the Caribbean.

[CourierPR]

And if you look at the 72 hour nam the ridge starts building back west and the gap is closing as the trough lifts out

so what dose this mean aric?

I think it means no sharp recurve.

[Aric Dunn]

also has a significantly stronger system

[HurricaneBrain]

Ahhh what the heck, just name one Emily and on Franklin

[Aric Dunn]

Am I seeing the MLC from the East portion starting to move over thenow very obvious LLC on the SE side of the West system? I'm afraid to say what I am seeing as it seems to change from hour to hour if not minute to minute.

yeah earlier a few of us mentioned that might happen later... going to be interesting... tonight should be the night.

[WxEnthus]

The eastern blob isn't so much of a blob anymore, it's really swirling with a great shape imo -- if it were out there by itself I'd say it definitely has that "look" of a developed storm. Whether it's actually organized enough is another story but it does appear convection is on the increase. The western blob is becoming messy just as much as the eastern one is become more compact. From the overall visual motion it looks like maybe the southeastern "arm" of convection in the left may eventually collide or get pulled into the rotation of the right one, as if it could eventually become part of a banding feature... not saying it will though of course. Whatever this is, it's certain persistent!

[Content is only the opinion of the poster and is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.]

[amawea]

Am I seeing the MLC from the East portion starting to move over thenow very obvious LLC on the SE side of the West system? I'm afraid to say what I am seeing as it seems to change from hour to hour if not minute to minute.

That is what I was thinking vbhoutex. Maybe the midlevel circulation in the east wave will stack with the low level circulation in the s.e. area of the west wave. I only know one thing for sure. This situation is presenting a good learning experience for when something like this comes along in the future.

[hurricanefloyd5]

also has a significantly stronger system

this could spell trouble for florida right?

[ozonepete]

this is even better than wobble watching

[Ivanhater]

18z position today is already a good bit further South west than models predicted it to be at this time. Still not ready to take off yet so westward 'ho she goes...models will continue to shift west tonight imo.

[Aric Dunn]

So no LLC in eastern blob. watching the western blob as it sits basically stationary and continues to slowly wrap the back side of the convection around to the south ...

[SouthFLTropics]

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
455 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO UPDATE DISCUSSION OF THE ELONGATED AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES.

UPDATED...COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEMS HAVE LIMITED THE AMOUNT OF DATA
RECEIVED FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES EAST OF THE
NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS...

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/FRANKLIN

Is this the result of budget cutbacks and the country going into default? I knew the situation was bad but this is ridiculous!

SFT

[KWT]

also has a significantly stronger system

Probably a very bad run for hispaniola, will probably weaken alot overland but you still don't want a decent system heading into the Bahamas at this time of year.

[Aric Dunn]

Still a weakness present but the ridge does build back westwards a little bit as the weakness...well weakens!

That pattern would see it get into the Caribbean.

yeah but all the way up to 84 hours it kept building west... wonder if it thinks it could stay south of hispanola like yesterdays.. nogaps and gfdl ...

[artist]

AF Reserve Hurricane Hunters Joseph: They are experiencing some satellite issues at the moment that they hope to clear up soon.
about an hour ago
http://www.facebook.com/hurricanehunters
The NOAA Hurricane Hunters
N49 and crew are preparing to take off from TISX on the island of St. Croix (USVI) in just about 1 hour. The observations we collect today, in conjunction with the observations by the AF Reserve Hurricane Hunters, will give the models and NHC forecasters a much better idea of what AL91 (Emily??) may do!
http://www.facebook.com/pages/The-NOAA- ... 6668535080

[artist]

AF Reserve Hurricane Hunters Joseph: They are experiencing some satellite issues at the moment that they hope to clear up soon.
about an hour ago
http://www.facebook.com/hurricanehunters
The NOAA Hurricane Hunters
N49 and crew are preparing to take off from TISX on the island of St. Croix (USVI) in just about 1 hour. The observations we collect today, in conjunction with the observations by the AF Reserve Hurricane Hunters, will give the models and NHC forecasters a much better idea of what AL91 (Emily??) may do!
http://www.facebook.com/pages/The-NOAA- ... 6668535080

[KWT]

Probably just bad luck with regards to recon, though it has happened a couple of times recently.

Thats a quality update, its good to see they've almost written a discussion about the system, as they say data does not suggest it has a well defined center.

[jinftl]

Would this scenario be more of a David track than say a Georges track - 2 systems that spent some quality time over hispanola?

also has a significantly stronger system

Probably a very bad run for hispaniola, will probably weaken alot overland but you still don't want a decent system heading into the Bahamas at this time of year.