ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

[Weatherfreak000]

Tough to pinpoint landfall at this point. Still going with the North most models. I think SETX is in the crosshairs now.

[KWT]

Cnter is now a little north of the eastern part of the Yucatan.

[dwsqos2]

Nice outflow boundaries on the eastern side; I am still not impressed.

[KWT]

Nice outflow boundaries on the eastern side; I am still not impressed.

Yeah its not an amazing looking system, but I think even you'd have to accept its probably a TD/TS right now...making your call forn 0/0/0 in July look very bad if it does go on to become Don

[MBryant]

I think the first NHC track will be straight to the central Texas coast. The track will keep moving farther north if the more trusted models shift north. Right now it seems like the more reliable ones take this to the south-central coast.

I have no idea where it will go eventually, but I have learned to be prepared just in case it decides to visit. Diesel in my truck is better than diesel in the station's tank. My concern this year is the higher than typical gulf water temps which could lead to late rapid intensification before landfall.

Does the warm water have any point of diminishing effect where the water get's too warm for rapid intensification? I wouldn't guess so, but I didn't consider the eye wall replacement effect before the last few years either.

[Weatherfreak000]

Nice outflow boundaries on the eastern side; I am still not impressed.

Yeah its not an amazing looking system, but I think even you'd have to accept its probably a TD/TS right now...making your call forn 0/0/0 in July look very bad if it does go on to become Don

LOL he predicted 0/0 for July?!?!?! How bold.



Future Don does indeed look a bit ragged...this is to be expected though. So long as RECON sees a closed circulation and the appropriate winds, a TD is a TD.

[HURAKAN]

Best link for loops on this system: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

[floridasun78]

let see what plane report

[KWT]

Future Don does indeed look a bit ragged...this is to be expected though. So long as RECON sees a closed circulation and the appropriate winds, a TD is a TD.

Yep, I wouldn't be all that surprised if it struggles a little, but then again these lop-sided systems often are surprisingly potent for thier presentation, if you'd pin me up against a wall, I'd go for 55kts at landfall.

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[KWT]

Still no reports?!?!

Hmm hopefully nothing is going too wrong!

[Dave]

Still no reports?!?!

Hmm hopefully nothing is going too wrong!

Nothing yet KWT. Nothing in raw, regular, or the archives. Not even a recco message. Wondering if there's a transmitter/receiver problem.

[Aric Dunn]

IF the trough over the northern gulf coast persists longer than forecast and the ridge does not build in and just slides east than the weakness will be more towards the central gulf and we will see a more NW to NNW motion to the coast. right now the steering seems to indicate a more NW motion towards the upper TX coast western LA. will have to see exactly what the left over trough/boundary has on it.

The shear Forecast is still showing that conditions will improve over the next day so its likely that it will intensify some. will it make it to hurricane strength remains to be seen.

[hurricanefloyd5]

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... AXw01a.gif


on the northern coast of the western tip of cuba the low is?

[floridasun78]

what is link to google hurricane tracking map few you use i see one post in here from goggle earth

[Weatherfreak000]

IF the trough over the northern gulf coast persists longer than forecast and the ridge does not build in and just slides east than the weakness will be more towards the central gulf and we will see a more NW to NNW motion to the coast. right now the steering seems to indicate a more NW motion towards the upper TX coast western LA. will have to see exactly what the left over trough/boundary has on it.

The shear Forecast is still showing that conditions will improve over the next day so its likely that it will intensify some. will it make it to hurricane strength remains to be seen.

Couldn't have said it better myself. The clear split in the model consensus shows how confusing the track may be. What we can GUESS I believe is Texas should get some action. However Louisiana IMO is coming more and more under the gun.

[cycloneye]

Maybe a suggestion on my part to the folks of NHC is to make a brief statement about the status of the flight on their Facebook and Twitter pages to let know the public.

[RL3AO]

:?: what is link to google hurricane tracking map few you use i see one post in here from goggle earth

http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/

[ConvergenceZone]

IF the trough over the northern gulf coast persists longer than forecast and the ridge does not build in and just slides east than the weakness will be more towards the central gulf and we will see a more NW to NNW motion to the coast. right now the steering seems to indicate a more NW motion towards the upper TX coast western LA. will have to see exactly what the left over trough/boundary has on it.

The shear Forecast is still showing that conditions will improve over the next day so its likely that it will intensify some. will it make it to hurricane strength remains to be seen.

I know we all tend to discount this, but it's also possible that the models are seeing something that we aren't,
which is why they aren't developing the system into much of anything.
I still think we've got a good shot at a strong tropical storm that will hopefully bring some much needed rains
to the south.

[SunnyThoughts]

I certainly hope you guys in Texas that are so in need of rain, get some out of this system.

[Aric Dunn]

As the southern part of the Circ clears the yucatan we should see a more organized system. The westerly flow is probably slightly inhibited by the land somewhat even though is pretty flat.