ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

[drezee]

We should not ignore the stalled front over the N GOM. It is making that ridge quite dirty and keeping pressures lower than otherwise. I would not let my guard down if I was E of Galveston just yet.

[Aric Dunn]

They just simply dont want to acknowledge the 0% .... we have seen way less organized systems be classified before recon. oh well none the less it should be later. and the models are shifting which was expected..

[Aric Dunn]

We should not ignore the stalled front over the N GOM. It is making that ridge quite dirty and keeping pressures lower than otherwise. I would not let my guard down if I was E of Galveston just yet.

exactly I mentioned this fact a couple days ago...

['CaneFreak]

Aric,

What are your thoughts about the shear forecast over the next few days with this thing? I see easterly flow over the entire gulf and with a westerly moving system, I don't see it being much of a problem...I see it more as a helper to outflow than anything...your thoughts?

They just simply dont want to acknowledge the 0% .... we have seen way less organized systems be classified before recon. oh well none the less it should be later. and the models are shifting which was expected..

[Dave]

No problem, just waiting for the 1st set of hdobs to arrive.

A little housekeeping while waiting...a recon discussion thread is located here:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=111264

As of 1204 edt no feeds yet...still waiting.

12:48 PM EDT - Nothing yet.

13:15 PM EDT - Still no reports.

[hurricanefloyd5]

We should not ignore the stalled front over the N GOM. It is making that ridge quite dirty and keeping pressures lower than otherwise. I would not let my guard down if I was E of Galveston just yet.

exactly I mentioned this fact a couple days ago...

what would be the affect in the n.gom drawning it northward or keep the storm dirty?

[hriverajr]

I still believe for those northern models to verify it has to start moving Northwest soon. I don't feel like this storm will suddenly turn northward. I still think Victoria area southward. Little bit off topic but I know you upper coast residents want the rain but central Texas needs it much worse than anyone. Up in the hill country some communities are in the final stages of water rationing. They are almost OUT of water, so perhaps I am a bit biased towards the southern route.

[drezee]

We should not ignore the stalled front over the N GOM. It is making that ridge quite dirty and keeping pressures lower than otherwise. I would not let my guard down if I was E of Galveston just yet.

exactly I mentioned this fact a couple days ago...

what would be the affect in the n.gom drawning it northward or keep the storm dirty?

Effectively retract the edge of the ridge and allow the TC to move further N...

[KWT]

Ivanhater, I can't decide whether the shear is getting stronger looking at that loop, I think I can see more of the curvature of the LLC then I did a couple of hours ago, really need a closer view of that loop to tell...

[nicole]

What are the chances of this blowing up into something stronger than a CAT-2~CAT-5 once it gets more centered in the GOM...? It's that still a possiblitly at this point???

[lester]

What are the chances of this blowing up into something stronger than a CAT-2~CAT-5 once it gets more centered in the GOM...? It's that still a possiblitly at this point???

Anything is possible in the Gulf.

- לסטר

[RL3AO]

What are the chances of this blowing up into something stronger than a CAT-2~CAT-5 once it gets more centered in the GOM...? It's that still a possiblitly at this point???

I'd say 5 to 10% chance of it becoming a cat 3 or higher.

[KWT]

What are the chances of this blowing up into something stronger than a CAT-2~CAT-5 once it gets more centered in the GOM...? It's that still a possiblitly at this point???

Whilst I'd think the odds are very low, I'd think history shows you should totally rule out a 2, maybe even low end 3...though for that sort of strength (say 85kts above) you'd be looking at very small chance indeed.

Odds are this ends up in the 55-75kts range...IMO of course, given the shear that is present throughout the gulf (not strong, but enough to displace convection)

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

What are the chances of this blowing up into something stronger than a CAT-2~CAT-5 once it gets more centered in the GOM...? It's that still a possiblitly at this point???

Not going to say it wont be anything bigger than a CAT 1. ALWAYS a possibility in the gulf.

[Tireman4]

Well there is always the curious case of Opal....

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Opal

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[x-y-no]

Small systems like this can change very rapidly, but I wouldn't put any money on this making major hurricane status.

[hurricanejustin]

Hi, been a lurker here for about 4 years now, first time posting...anyhow, what time is the recon scheduled to make it out to 90L?

[KWT]

Celia sets the bar for this system in terms of a threat, that baby utterly exploded (RI in every sense of the word) just north of where 90L is now...though its fair tio say Celia was better established at this point.

As I said odds of it going above a cat-1 are probably small, even more so when considering background conditions, but not out of the question.

[HurricaneBrain]

Looking great on loop. Definitely a depression right now.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_048l.gif