ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

[thetruesms]

Yeah, what I said earlier about an LLC being very strongly suggested by what's out there, but not necessarily "slap everyone in the face" obvious? It's become much more obvious in the hour+ since then. Should just be a matter of waiting for the formalities now.

[cycloneye]

Here is the 12z surface analysis.

[KWT]

Yeah, what I said earlier about an LLC being very strongly suggested by what's out there, but not necessarily "slap everyone in the face" obvious? It's become much more obvious in the hour+ since then. Should just be a matter of waiting for the formalities now.

Yeah I think its now more the case of whether they find a TD/TS winds with it...and with it another massive bust from the globals...3 out of 4, size of those systems really hasn't helped.

[FireRat]

Over at this forum I belong to I've been warning about the July 28-29 period for weeks. The 29th is the date that I'm most concerned about, right when this thing is supposed to hit the Texan coast. I do not have a good feeling about this because of that. I would say to take this developing storm very seriously in case it blows up by tomorrow and Friday.

FireRat.

[Ivanhater]

The size of this storm really is not that small, especially in the developing stages. Not an excuse for the models to miss this one as well imo.

[djmikey]

Anything is possible guys as far as landfall! 2 days ago we were sure it was going to be a Mexico hit. Now I have seen the models shift as far north as the TX/LA border and many pro-mets mentioning Galveston/Houston! IMO..ANYONE along the TX coast is at play here! IMO..I favor the central coast rather than the upper Tx coast!

*Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[KWT]

The size of this storm really is not that small, especially in the developing stages. Not an excuse for the models to miss this one as well imo.

I get the feeling that the actual circulation of the LLC is quite tight, but still your probably right, no real excuse this time, just poor model perfromance (ECM did a better job of at least trying to strengthening it)

[Dave]

Sorry kwt I was having lunch & missed you ?

[JTE50]

note that NOAA 49 on the schedule is the G4 high altitude sampling jet. Is there a data feed for them? I'm guessing not.

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

Based on Cancun radar loop along with a recent west wind reported in Cozumel, 90L's COC appears to be just to the east of the tip of the Yucatan Peninsula. It might have finally the closed circulation we have been waiting for.

http://smn.cna.gob.mx/radares/cancun/cancun.php

The west wind was only 5mph. Now it's calm:

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MMCZ.html

Also buoy 42056 is now reporting SE winds about 15.5kts. That's not a sign of closed circulation.


http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056

But the 90L is now well NNW of bouy 42056, SE wind is a good indication of a closed surface circulation.
And on wxunderground there is still plenty of westerly winds still being reported in the Cancun area.

Just a quick note regarding radar. I don't know the model, nor do I know the elevation angle that this radar uses, BUT one thing is true of all doppler radars (from what I know). The farther from the radar site the reflection, the higher in the atmosphere the reflection exists.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weather_radar

If using a 0.5' base elevation, the returns at 200km are at least 2km in the air (750mb levelish). Just a warning.

[djmikey]

Anything is possible guys as far as landfall! 2 days ago we were sure it was going to be a Mexico hit. Now I have seen the models shift as far north as the TX/LA border and many pro-mets mentioning Galveston/Houston! IMO..ANYONE along the TX coast is at play here! IMO..I favor the central coast rather than the upper Tx coast!

*Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[RL3AO]

note that NOAA 49 on the schedule is the G4 high altitude sampling jet. Is there a data feed for them? I'm guessing not.

Yeah. Its only dropsonde data though.

[Dave]

note that NOAA 49 on the schedule is the G4 high altitude sampling jet. Is there a data feed for them? I'm guessing not.

Watch here for the NOAA G4..sometimes they do post while other times not.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/URNT15-NOAA.shtml?

[drezee]

I don't need radar or buoys at this point. IMO, there is clearly a surface circulation on the high res visibles. The NHC is waiting for recon, but they know they have a TC down there. This is not a drill.

[HURAKAN]

Latest visible

[SouthDadeFish]

Evolution of 90L over the past three days:

Two days ago:


Yesterday:


Today:

[Ivanhater]

[NDG]

The west wind was only 5mph. Now it's calm:

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MMCZ.html

Also buoy 42056 is now reporting SE winds about 15.5kts. That's not a sign of closed circulation.


http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056

But the 90L is now well NNW of bouy 42056, SE wind is a good indication of a closed surface circulation.
And on wxunderground there is still plenty of westerly winds still being reported in the Cancun area.

Just a quick note regarding radar. I don't know the model, nor do I know the elevation angle that this radar uses, BUT one thing is true of all doppler radars (from what I know). The farther from the radar site the reflection, the higher in the atmosphere the reflection exists.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weather_radar

If using a 0.5' base elevation, the returns at 200km are at least 2km in the air (750mb levelish). Just a warning.

I understand what you are saying, but in this case the possible LLC with 90L is only less than 70 miles from the Cancun radar site, so is catching a good surface base from the system's convection.

[FireRat]

LATEST INFRARED LOOP AS OF 11:34 AM MIAMI TIME


COME TOMORROW THE 28TH, THERE'S NOT MUCH THAT WILL HOLD IT BACK FROM CONTINUING ITS DEVELOPMENT.

[JTE50]

Thanks Dave & RL3AO. I rode with them (G4) on a mission around Katrina back in 2005.