18z is still slightly SW of the 12z at 114 hours.
Mid level ridging over the east coast is also stronger
ATL: IRENE - Models
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NW turn at 120hrs, perfect track for Florida again...would probably not be a hurricane on that track....may only spend 12hrs over water from Cuba!
Last edited by KWT on Sat Aug 20, 2011 5:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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gatorcane
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Looks like more ridging over Eastern North America this run (18Z 114 hours)...so my expectations on a slight west shift in the long-range may be right.
Last edited by gatorcane on Sat Aug 20, 2011 5:21 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Approaching the Florida Straits at 120 hours. We are beginning to get within 5 days.
12z and 18z almost identical, approaching Miami
12z and 18z almost identical, approaching Miami
Last edited by rockyman on Sat Aug 20, 2011 5:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models
This is still going to affect southern florida/keys in this run.. geez.. such consistency.. weird lol
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WeatherEmperor
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GFS 126hr:
Moving due north toward South Florida
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M
Moving due north toward South Florida
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M
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That track if it holds like that is exceptionally good news for Florida, the ECM would be many times worse...
We go from dealing with a 2-3 to maybe a 60-70kts system...still strong enough cause problems but not the beast the upper conditions would otherwise allow.
We go from dealing with a 2-3 to maybe a 60-70kts system...still strong enough cause problems but not the beast the upper conditions would otherwise allow.
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Ha spends about 9hrs over water!!!
Not much chance of a powerful system with that sort of track I'd have thought, in total spends about 18hrs over water from Hispaniola to Florida!
PERFECT track for a weaker system into Florida...could not get much better honestly.
Not much chance of a powerful system with that sort of track I'd have thought, in total spends about 18hrs over water from Hispaniola to Florida!
PERFECT track for a weaker system into Florida...could not get much better honestly.
Last edited by KWT on Sat Aug 20, 2011 5:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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gatorcane
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Re:
KWT wrote:That track if it holds like that is exceptionally good news for Florida, the ECM would be many times worse...
We go from dealing with a 2-3 to maybe a 60-70kts system...still strong enough cause problems but not the beast the upper conditions would otherwise allow.
Yeah but look how strong it is getting in the FL straits. GFS about ready to bomb it out...
Is that a slight shift east I see? Really right on with the ECMWF it looks like.
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CYCLONE MIKE
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models
Hey guys, just something quick here. I have seen that some are saying how 97L is really starting to organize and could be Irene sooner rather than later. And in correlation that would cause the models to shift east on future runs because it is developing way of schedule. Not so. Just because some strong winds were found does not mean it is on the verge of developing an llc. In fact recon said it was poorly organized. Moving to fast to consolidate. This is a big system and will take some to to get going. Also a half degree here or there will not make that big a difference of where this ends up going. It is going to be determined by how strong the ridging is and how much of a weakness is left from the trough IF it digs down far enough.
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WeatherEmperor
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Re: Re:
gatorcane wrote:Yeah but look how strong it is getting in the FL straits. GFS about ready to bomb it out...
Is that a slight shift east I see? Really right on with the ECMWF it looks like.
Conditions are good aloft but you've gotta expect there to be no real inner core if that track happens...It'll take too long for it to take advantage of the impressive synoptics to get too strong if it takes that track.
Anytyhing east/west and the potenial strength increases.
PS, nope, still west of the ECM, the KEY difference is GFS takes it over/JUST south if Cuba, whilst the ECM clears Cuba enough to relaly set this to town.
The ECM shows what could happen if it gains 1 degree more latitude then the GFS expects.
Last edited by KWT on Sat Aug 20, 2011 5:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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