Btw CIMSS ADT estimates have this near hurricane strength:
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 20 AUG 2011 Time : 021500 UTC
Lat : 16:10:41 N Lon : 85:04:38 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.5 / 993.2mb/ 55.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.1 3.5 4.2
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/odt08L.html
ATL : HARVEY - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Moderator: S2k Moderators
-
SouthDadeFish
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 2835
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2010 2:54 pm
- Location: Miami, FL
- Contact:
ZCZC MIATCPAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011
1100 AM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011
...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS DEPRESSION JUST BELOW
TROPICAL-STORM STRENGTH...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 83.7W
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS.
THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
COAST OF BELIZE FROM DANGRIGA TOWN SOUTHWARD TO THE BELIZE/GUATEMALA
BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR THIS
AREA LATER TODAY.
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA GRUESA
SOUTHWARD TO CHETUMAL.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS
* THE COAST OF GUATEMALA
* THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM DANGRIGA TOWN SOUTHWARD TO THE BELIZE/
GUATEMALA BORDER
* THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA GRUESA
SOUTHWARD TO CHETUMAL
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE AT ANY TIME WITHIN THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.7 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A
GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE
DEPRESSION WILL PASS NEAR THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS TONIGHT AND
MOVE ACROSS THE COAST OF BELIZE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION IS GETTING
BETTER ORGANIZED...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
LATER TODAY.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE BAY ISLANDS
OF HONDURAS TONIGHT...AND OVER THE COAST OF BELIZE SATURDAY OR
SATURDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS TODAY AND TONIGHT...ALONG THE NORTHERN
COAST OF GUATEMALA ON SATURDAY...AND ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT.
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...AND
BELIZE...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE
RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...
ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
NNNN
ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011
1100 AM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FOUND THAT THE
WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WAS ABOUT 30 N MI
NORTHEAST OF THE POSITION IN EARLIER ADVISORIES. HOW MUCH OF THIS
SHIFT IS DUE TO A CHANGE IN THE MOTION AND HOW MUCH IS DUE TO
REFORMATION OF THE CENTER IS NOT OBVIOUS IN THE DATA CURRENTLY
AVAILABLE. THE AIRCRAFT HAS REPORTED CENTRAL PRESSURES OF
1004-1005 MB...850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 40 KT...AND RELIABLE
SFMR SURFACE WIND ESTIMATES OF 30-35 KT. THESE DATA SUGGEST THAT
THE CYCLONE IS JUST BELOW TROPICAL-STORM STRENGTH...AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 275/9. A LOW/MID-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT 48-72 HR...AND
THIS SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY WESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH ITS LIFETIME. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS
PARALLEL TO...BUT SHIFTED NORTH OF...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND LIES
NEAR THE CENTER OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE FORECAST TRACK
HAS THE CENTER PASSING NEAR THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS TONIGHT AND
OVER THE COAST OF BELIZE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE NEW FORECAST TRACK ALLOWS THE CYCLONE TO SPEND MORE TIME OVER
WATER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...AND THIS REQUIRES REVISING THE
INTENSITY FORECAST UPWARD. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR
THE SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM IN 12 HR OR LESS AND TO REACH
A PEAK INTENSITY OF 45 KT NEAR THE TIME OF LANDFALL IN BELIZE.
THIS FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE WEAKER GFDL/HWRF MODELS
AND THE STRONGER SHIPS/LGEM MODELS.
THE NEW FORECAST REQUIRES SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE WATCHES AND
WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/1500Z 16.1N 83.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 16.3N 85.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 16.7N 86.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 21/0000Z 17.1N 88.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 21/1200Z 17.5N 90.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 22/1200Z 18.0N 94.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
NNNN
ZCZC MIATCMAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011
1500 UTC FRI AUG 19 2011
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS.
THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
COAST OF BELIZE FROM DANGRIGA TOWN SOUTHWARD TO THE BELIZE/GUATEMALA
BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR THIS
AREA LATER TODAY.
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA GRUESA
SOUTHWARD TO CHETUMAL.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS
* THE COAST OF GUATEMALA
* THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM DANGRIGA TOWN SOUTHWARD TO THE BELIZE/
GUATEMALA BORDER
* THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA GRUESA
SOUTHWARD TO CHETUMAL
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE AT ANY TIME WITHIN THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 83.7W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 83.7W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 83.3W
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 16.3N 85.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 35NE 0SE 0SW 35NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 16.7N 86.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 20SE 20SW 45NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 17.1N 88.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 17.5N 90.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 18.0N 94.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 83.7W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
NNNN
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011
1100 AM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011
...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS DEPRESSION JUST BELOW
TROPICAL-STORM STRENGTH...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 83.7W
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS.
THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
COAST OF BELIZE FROM DANGRIGA TOWN SOUTHWARD TO THE BELIZE/GUATEMALA
BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR THIS
AREA LATER TODAY.
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA GRUESA
SOUTHWARD TO CHETUMAL.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS
* THE COAST OF GUATEMALA
* THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM DANGRIGA TOWN SOUTHWARD TO THE BELIZE/
GUATEMALA BORDER
* THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA GRUESA
SOUTHWARD TO CHETUMAL
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE AT ANY TIME WITHIN THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.7 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A
GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE
DEPRESSION WILL PASS NEAR THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS TONIGHT AND
MOVE ACROSS THE COAST OF BELIZE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION IS GETTING
BETTER ORGANIZED...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
LATER TODAY.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE BAY ISLANDS
OF HONDURAS TONIGHT...AND OVER THE COAST OF BELIZE SATURDAY OR
SATURDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS TODAY AND TONIGHT...ALONG THE NORTHERN
COAST OF GUATEMALA ON SATURDAY...AND ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT.
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...AND
BELIZE...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE
RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...
ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
NNNN
ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011
1100 AM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FOUND THAT THE
WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WAS ABOUT 30 N MI
NORTHEAST OF THE POSITION IN EARLIER ADVISORIES. HOW MUCH OF THIS
SHIFT IS DUE TO A CHANGE IN THE MOTION AND HOW MUCH IS DUE TO
REFORMATION OF THE CENTER IS NOT OBVIOUS IN THE DATA CURRENTLY
AVAILABLE. THE AIRCRAFT HAS REPORTED CENTRAL PRESSURES OF
1004-1005 MB...850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 40 KT...AND RELIABLE
SFMR SURFACE WIND ESTIMATES OF 30-35 KT. THESE DATA SUGGEST THAT
THE CYCLONE IS JUST BELOW TROPICAL-STORM STRENGTH...AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 275/9. A LOW/MID-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT 48-72 HR...AND
THIS SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY WESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH ITS LIFETIME. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS
PARALLEL TO...BUT SHIFTED NORTH OF...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND LIES
NEAR THE CENTER OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE FORECAST TRACK
HAS THE CENTER PASSING NEAR THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS TONIGHT AND
OVER THE COAST OF BELIZE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE NEW FORECAST TRACK ALLOWS THE CYCLONE TO SPEND MORE TIME OVER
WATER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...AND THIS REQUIRES REVISING THE
INTENSITY FORECAST UPWARD. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR
THE SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM IN 12 HR OR LESS AND TO REACH
A PEAK INTENSITY OF 45 KT NEAR THE TIME OF LANDFALL IN BELIZE.
THIS FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE WEAKER GFDL/HWRF MODELS
AND THE STRONGER SHIPS/LGEM MODELS.
THE NEW FORECAST REQUIRES SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE WATCHES AND
WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/1500Z 16.1N 83.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 16.3N 85.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 16.7N 86.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 21/0000Z 17.1N 88.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 21/1200Z 17.5N 90.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 22/1200Z 18.0N 94.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
NNNN
ZCZC MIATCMAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011
1500 UTC FRI AUG 19 2011
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS.
THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
COAST OF BELIZE FROM DANGRIGA TOWN SOUTHWARD TO THE BELIZE/GUATEMALA
BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR THIS
AREA LATER TODAY.
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA GRUESA
SOUTHWARD TO CHETUMAL.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS
* THE COAST OF GUATEMALA
* THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM DANGRIGA TOWN SOUTHWARD TO THE BELIZE/
GUATEMALA BORDER
* THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA GRUESA
SOUTHWARD TO CHETUMAL
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE AT ANY TIME WITHIN THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 83.7W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 83.7W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 83.3W
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 16.3N 85.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 35NE 0SE 0SW 35NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 16.7N 86.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 20SE 20SW 45NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 17.1N 88.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 17.5N 90.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 18.0N 94.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 83.7W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
NNNN
0 likes
ZCZC MIATCPAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011
200 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT BECOMES TROPICAL STORM
HARVEY...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR BELIZE...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 84.2W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
COAST OF BELIZE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS
* THE COAST OF BELIZE.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS
* THE COAST OF GUATEMALA
* THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA GRUESA
SOUTHWARD TO CHETUMAL
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE AT ANY TIME WITHIN THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.2 WEST. HARVEY
IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A GENERAL
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
HARVEY WILL PASS NEAR THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS TONIGHT AND
MOVE ACROSS THE COAST OF BELIZE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE THE
CENTER OF HARVEY REACHES BELIZE.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE BAY ISLANDS
OF HONDURAS TONIGHT...AND OVER THE COAST OF BELIZE SATURDAY OR
SATURDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS TODAY AND TONIGHT...ALONG THE NORTHERN
COAST OF GUATEMALA ON SATURDAY...AND ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT.
RAINFALL...HARVEY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...AND
BELIZE...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE
RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...
ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
NNNN
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011
200 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT BECOMES TROPICAL STORM
HARVEY...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR BELIZE...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 84.2W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
COAST OF BELIZE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS
* THE COAST OF BELIZE.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS
* THE COAST OF GUATEMALA
* THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA GRUESA
SOUTHWARD TO CHETUMAL
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE AT ANY TIME WITHIN THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.2 WEST. HARVEY
IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A GENERAL
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
HARVEY WILL PASS NEAR THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS TONIGHT AND
MOVE ACROSS THE COAST OF BELIZE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE THE
CENTER OF HARVEY REACHES BELIZE.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE BAY ISLANDS
OF HONDURAS TONIGHT...AND OVER THE COAST OF BELIZE SATURDAY OR
SATURDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS TODAY AND TONIGHT...ALONG THE NORTHERN
COAST OF GUATEMALA ON SATURDAY...AND ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT.
RAINFALL...HARVEY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...AND
BELIZE...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE
RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...
ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
NNNN
0 likes
ZCZC MIATCPAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011
500 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011
...HARVEY STRENGTHENING AS IT APPROACHES THE BAY ISLANDS...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 84.7W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA GRUESA
SOUTHWARD TO CHETUMAL.
THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
EAST OF PUNTA PATUCA.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS
* THE COAST OF BELIZE
* THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA GRUESA
SOUTHWARD TO CHETUMAL
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA WESTWARD
* THE COAST OF GUATEMALA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE AT ANY TIME WITHIN THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.7 WEST. HARVEY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND A GENERAL
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
HARVEY WILL PASS NEAR THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS TONIGHT AND
MOVE ACROSS THE COAST OF BELIZE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AS HARVEY
APPROACHES THE BAY ISLANDS AND BELIZE.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE BAY ISLANDS
OF HONDURAS TONIGHT...AND OVER THE COAST OF BELIZE AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO SATURDAY OR SATURDAY
NIGHT. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN
COAST OF HONDURAS TONIGHT...AND ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF
GUATEMALA ON SATURDAY.
RAINFALL...HARVEY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...AND
BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
NNNN
ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011
500 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011
EARLIER REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATED THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WAS ON THE VERGE OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM. SINCE THAT TIME...THE CONVECTIVE
BANDING HAS BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED AND SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM SAB
AND TAFB HAVE INCREASED TO 45 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE
DEPRESSION WAS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM HARVEY AT 1800 UTC AND IS
NOW ESTIMATED TO HAVE WINDS OF 40 KT. THE NEXT AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO REACH THE STORM NEAR 00Z.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 280/10. THERE IS NO
CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC REASONING FOR THE TRACK FORECAST. A
LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT 48-72
HOURS...AND THIS SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY WESTWARD TO
WEST- NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH ITS LIFETIME. ONE CHANGE SINCE THE LAST
ADVISORY IS THAT THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE FORECAST TRACK HAVE
SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH...BRINGING THE CENTER BRIEFLY OVER
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BETWEEN 48-72 HOURS. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS
IN THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE NEAR THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS
MODELS.
CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND GOOD CIRRUS OUTFLOW IN THE
NORTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE SUGGEST HARVEY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN UNTIL LANDFALL IN BELIZE. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST
CALLS FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 55 KT NEAR LANDFALL IN BEST AGREEMENT
WITH THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS. THEREAFTER...HARVEY SHOULD SLOWLY
WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO. THERE
ARE TWO NOTES ABOUT THE INTENSITY FORECAST. FIRST...THE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION INDEX OF THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE
OF 25 KT OF INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE
INTENSITY PROBABILITIES TABLE SHOWS A 13 PERCENT CHANCE OF HARVEY
BEING A HURRICANE IN 24 HOURS. SECOND...THE INTENSITIES LATER IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD COULD REQUIRE ADJUSTMENT IF THE CENTER MOVES
FARTHER OUT INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/2100Z 16.5N 84.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 16.7N 86.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 17.1N 87.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 17.6N 89.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
48H 21/1800Z 18.0N 91.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 22/1800Z 18.5N 96.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
NNNN
ZCZC MIATCMAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011
2100 UTC FRI AUG 19 2011
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA GRUESA
SOUTHWARD TO CHETUMAL.
THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
EAST OF PUNTA PATUCA.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS
* THE COAST OF BELIZE
* THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA GRUESA
SOUTHWARD TO CHETUMAL
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA WESTWARD
* THE COAST OF GUATEMALA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE AT ANY TIME WITHIN THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 84.7W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 84.7W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 84.3W
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 16.7N 86.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 17.1N 87.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 75NE 40SE 40SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 17.6N 89.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 20SE 20SW 45NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 18.0N 91.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 18.5N 96.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 84.7W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
NNNN
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011
500 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011
...HARVEY STRENGTHENING AS IT APPROACHES THE BAY ISLANDS...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 84.7W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA GRUESA
SOUTHWARD TO CHETUMAL.
THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
EAST OF PUNTA PATUCA.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS
* THE COAST OF BELIZE
* THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA GRUESA
SOUTHWARD TO CHETUMAL
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA WESTWARD
* THE COAST OF GUATEMALA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE AT ANY TIME WITHIN THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.7 WEST. HARVEY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND A GENERAL
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
HARVEY WILL PASS NEAR THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS TONIGHT AND
MOVE ACROSS THE COAST OF BELIZE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AS HARVEY
APPROACHES THE BAY ISLANDS AND BELIZE.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE BAY ISLANDS
OF HONDURAS TONIGHT...AND OVER THE COAST OF BELIZE AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO SATURDAY OR SATURDAY
NIGHT. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN
COAST OF HONDURAS TONIGHT...AND ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF
GUATEMALA ON SATURDAY.
RAINFALL...HARVEY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...AND
BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
NNNN
ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011
500 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011
EARLIER REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATED THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WAS ON THE VERGE OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM. SINCE THAT TIME...THE CONVECTIVE
BANDING HAS BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED AND SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM SAB
AND TAFB HAVE INCREASED TO 45 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE
DEPRESSION WAS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM HARVEY AT 1800 UTC AND IS
NOW ESTIMATED TO HAVE WINDS OF 40 KT. THE NEXT AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO REACH THE STORM NEAR 00Z.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 280/10. THERE IS NO
CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC REASONING FOR THE TRACK FORECAST. A
LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT 48-72
HOURS...AND THIS SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY WESTWARD TO
WEST- NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH ITS LIFETIME. ONE CHANGE SINCE THE LAST
ADVISORY IS THAT THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE FORECAST TRACK HAVE
SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH...BRINGING THE CENTER BRIEFLY OVER
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BETWEEN 48-72 HOURS. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS
IN THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE NEAR THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS
MODELS.
CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND GOOD CIRRUS OUTFLOW IN THE
NORTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE SUGGEST HARVEY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN UNTIL LANDFALL IN BELIZE. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST
CALLS FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 55 KT NEAR LANDFALL IN BEST AGREEMENT
WITH THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS. THEREAFTER...HARVEY SHOULD SLOWLY
WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO. THERE
ARE TWO NOTES ABOUT THE INTENSITY FORECAST. FIRST...THE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION INDEX OF THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE
OF 25 KT OF INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE
INTENSITY PROBABILITIES TABLE SHOWS A 13 PERCENT CHANCE OF HARVEY
BEING A HURRICANE IN 24 HOURS. SECOND...THE INTENSITIES LATER IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD COULD REQUIRE ADJUSTMENT IF THE CENTER MOVES
FARTHER OUT INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/2100Z 16.5N 84.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 16.7N 86.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 17.1N 87.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 17.6N 89.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
48H 21/1800Z 18.0N 91.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 22/1800Z 18.5N 96.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
NNNN
ZCZC MIATCMAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011
2100 UTC FRI AUG 19 2011
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA GRUESA
SOUTHWARD TO CHETUMAL.
THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
EAST OF PUNTA PATUCA.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS
* THE COAST OF BELIZE
* THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA GRUESA
SOUTHWARD TO CHETUMAL
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA WESTWARD
* THE COAST OF GUATEMALA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE AT ANY TIME WITHIN THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 84.7W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 84.7W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 84.3W
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 16.7N 86.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 17.1N 87.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 75NE 40SE 40SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 17.6N 89.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 20SE 20SW 45NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 18.0N 91.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 18.5N 96.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 84.7W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
NNNN
0 likes
ZCZC MIATCPAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011
800 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011
...AIRCRAFT FINDS HARVEY JUST NORTH OF THE COAST OF HONDURAS...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 84.6W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
ABOUT 255 MI...415 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...14 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS
* THE COAST OF BELIZE
* THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA GRUESA
SOUTHWARD TO CHETUMAL
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA WESTWARD
* THE COAST OF GUATEMALA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
24 TO 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE AT ANY TIME WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT HARVEY IS LOCATED FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY
ESTIMATED.
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.6 WEST. HARVEY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...14 KM/H. A GENERAL WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF HARVEY WILL PASS NEAR
OR OVER THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS LATE TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE
COAST OF BELIZE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AS
HARVEY APPROACHES THE BAY ISLANDS AND BELIZE.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIRCRAFT DATA
IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE BAY ISLANDS
OF HONDURAS TONIGHT...AND OVER THE COAST OF BELIZE AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN
COAST OF HONDURAS TONIGHT...AND ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF
GUATEMALA ON SATURDAY.
RAINFALL...HARVEY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...AND
BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN.
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE COAST NEAR AND TO THE
NORTH OF WHERE HARVEY MAKES LANDFALL.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BLAKE
NNNN
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011
800 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011
...AIRCRAFT FINDS HARVEY JUST NORTH OF THE COAST OF HONDURAS...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 84.6W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
ABOUT 255 MI...415 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...14 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS
* THE COAST OF BELIZE
* THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA GRUESA
SOUTHWARD TO CHETUMAL
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA WESTWARD
* THE COAST OF GUATEMALA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
24 TO 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE AT ANY TIME WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT HARVEY IS LOCATED FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY
ESTIMATED.
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.6 WEST. HARVEY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...14 KM/H. A GENERAL WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF HARVEY WILL PASS NEAR
OR OVER THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS LATE TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE
COAST OF BELIZE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AS
HARVEY APPROACHES THE BAY ISLANDS AND BELIZE.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIRCRAFT DATA
IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE BAY ISLANDS
OF HONDURAS TONIGHT...AND OVER THE COAST OF BELIZE AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN
COAST OF HONDURAS TONIGHT...AND ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF
GUATEMALA ON SATURDAY.
RAINFALL...HARVEY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...AND
BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN.
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE COAST NEAR AND TO THE
NORTH OF WHERE HARVEY MAKES LANDFALL.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BLAKE
NNNN
0 likes
000
WTNT43 KNHC 200253
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011
1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011
DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT THIS
EVENING INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF HARVEY WAS LOCATED JUST NORTH
OF THE COAST OF HONDURAS. THIS WAS A LITTLE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
EARLIER ESTIMATES AND REQUIRED A RELOCATION ON THE 0000 UTC
INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY. THE AIRCRAFT ALSO REPORTED A MAXIMUM 700 MB
FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 53 KT AND BELIEVABLE SFMR WINDS OF 45-50 KT. A
DROPSONDE THAT JUST MISSED THE CENTER MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE
OF 997 MB WITH 32 KT AT THE SURFACE. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE MINIMUM
PRESSURE IS AROUND 994 MB... A DROP OF ABOUT 11 MB SINCE THIS
MORNING. THESE DATA SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KT.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK ARE CONDUCIVE FOR
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING. HARVEY WILL BE TRAVERSING VERY WARM
WATER AND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT. THE ONLY INHIBITING
FACTOR IS ITS CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LAND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
ASSUMES THAT HARVEY WILL MOVE A LITTLE NORTH OF DUE WEST AND
BE FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS NEAR THE UPPER END OF
THE GUIDANCE...IN CLOSEST AGREEMENT WITH THE STATISTICAL SHIPS AND
LGEM MODELS. THE NEW FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR HARVEY TO BECOME A
HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING THE COAST OF BELIZE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.
AFTER LANDFALL...STEADY WEAKENING IS PREDICTED AND HARVEY IS LIKELY
TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO IN 2-3 DAYS.
BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT FIXES THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/8...A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED. HARVEY SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
RIDGE ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE TRACK
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO. HOWEVER...
THE 0000 UTC GUIDANCE SHIFTED A LITTLE SOUTHWARD...PRIMARILY DUE TO
THE SOUTHEASTWARD RELOCATION OF THE CENTER. THIS REQUIRED A
SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE NHC TRACK AND THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST
REMAINS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 20/0300Z 16.2N 85.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 16.4N 86.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 21/0000Z 16.8N 88.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
36H 21/1200Z 17.3N 90.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
48H 22/0000Z 17.7N 93.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 23/0000Z 18.5N 96.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BLAKE
ZCZC MIATCPAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011
1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011
...HARVEY STRENGTHENS OFF THE COAST OF HONDURAS...HEADING FOR THE
BAY ISLANDS...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 85.2W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
ABOUT 220 MI...350 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE NORTH COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA WESTWARD WITH A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA WESTWARD
* THE COAST OF BELIZE
* THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA GRUESA
SOUTHWARD TO CHETUMAL
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF GUATEMALA
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG A PORTION OF THE COAST OF
BELIZE.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.2 WEST. HARVEY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A GENERAL WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF HARVEY WILL PASS NEAR
OR OVER THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY
AND MOVE ACROSS THE COAST OF BELIZE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR SATURDAY
NIGHT.
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND
HARVEY IS NOW FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING THE
COAST OF BELIZE.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIRCRAFT DATA WAS
994 MB...29.35 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE BAY ISLANDS
AND ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF HONDURAS TONIGHT...AND OVER THE COAST
OF BELIZE AND THE SOUTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG A
PORTION OF THE COAST OF BELIZE BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST
OF GUATEMALA ON SATURDAY.
RAINFALL...HARVEY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...AND
BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN.
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2
TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE COAST NEAR AND TO THE
NORTH OF WHERE HARVEY MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BLAKE
NNNN
ZCZC MIATCMAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011
0300 UTC SAT AUG 20 2011
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE NORTH COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA WESTWARD WITH A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA WESTWARD
* THE COAST OF BELIZE
* THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA GRUESA
SOUTHWARD TO CHETUMAL
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF GUATEMALA
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG A PORTION OF THE COAST OF
BELIZE.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 85.2W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT....... 35NE 20SE 0SW 35NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 15SE 15SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 85.2W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 84.7W
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 16.4N 86.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 25SE 25SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 16.8N 88.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 17.3N 90.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 17.7N 93.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 18.5N 96.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 85.2W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
NNNN
WTNT43 KNHC 200253
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011
1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011
DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT THIS
EVENING INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF HARVEY WAS LOCATED JUST NORTH
OF THE COAST OF HONDURAS. THIS WAS A LITTLE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
EARLIER ESTIMATES AND REQUIRED A RELOCATION ON THE 0000 UTC
INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY. THE AIRCRAFT ALSO REPORTED A MAXIMUM 700 MB
FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 53 KT AND BELIEVABLE SFMR WINDS OF 45-50 KT. A
DROPSONDE THAT JUST MISSED THE CENTER MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE
OF 997 MB WITH 32 KT AT THE SURFACE. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE MINIMUM
PRESSURE IS AROUND 994 MB... A DROP OF ABOUT 11 MB SINCE THIS
MORNING. THESE DATA SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KT.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK ARE CONDUCIVE FOR
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING. HARVEY WILL BE TRAVERSING VERY WARM
WATER AND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT. THE ONLY INHIBITING
FACTOR IS ITS CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LAND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
ASSUMES THAT HARVEY WILL MOVE A LITTLE NORTH OF DUE WEST AND
BE FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS NEAR THE UPPER END OF
THE GUIDANCE...IN CLOSEST AGREEMENT WITH THE STATISTICAL SHIPS AND
LGEM MODELS. THE NEW FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR HARVEY TO BECOME A
HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING THE COAST OF BELIZE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.
AFTER LANDFALL...STEADY WEAKENING IS PREDICTED AND HARVEY IS LIKELY
TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO IN 2-3 DAYS.
BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT FIXES THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/8...A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED. HARVEY SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
RIDGE ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE TRACK
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO. HOWEVER...
THE 0000 UTC GUIDANCE SHIFTED A LITTLE SOUTHWARD...PRIMARILY DUE TO
THE SOUTHEASTWARD RELOCATION OF THE CENTER. THIS REQUIRED A
SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE NHC TRACK AND THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST
REMAINS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 20/0300Z 16.2N 85.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 16.4N 86.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 21/0000Z 16.8N 88.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
36H 21/1200Z 17.3N 90.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
48H 22/0000Z 17.7N 93.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 23/0000Z 18.5N 96.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BLAKE
ZCZC MIATCPAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011
1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011
...HARVEY STRENGTHENS OFF THE COAST OF HONDURAS...HEADING FOR THE
BAY ISLANDS...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 85.2W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
ABOUT 220 MI...350 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE NORTH COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA WESTWARD WITH A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA WESTWARD
* THE COAST OF BELIZE
* THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA GRUESA
SOUTHWARD TO CHETUMAL
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF GUATEMALA
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG A PORTION OF THE COAST OF
BELIZE.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.2 WEST. HARVEY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A GENERAL WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF HARVEY WILL PASS NEAR
OR OVER THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY
AND MOVE ACROSS THE COAST OF BELIZE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR SATURDAY
NIGHT.
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND
HARVEY IS NOW FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING THE
COAST OF BELIZE.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIRCRAFT DATA WAS
994 MB...29.35 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE BAY ISLANDS
AND ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF HONDURAS TONIGHT...AND OVER THE COAST
OF BELIZE AND THE SOUTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG A
PORTION OF THE COAST OF BELIZE BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST
OF GUATEMALA ON SATURDAY.
RAINFALL...HARVEY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...AND
BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN.
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2
TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE COAST NEAR AND TO THE
NORTH OF WHERE HARVEY MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BLAKE
NNNN
ZCZC MIATCMAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011
0300 UTC SAT AUG 20 2011
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE NORTH COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA WESTWARD WITH A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA WESTWARD
* THE COAST OF BELIZE
* THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA GRUESA
SOUTHWARD TO CHETUMAL
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF GUATEMALA
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG A PORTION OF THE COAST OF
BELIZE.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 85.2W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT....... 35NE 20SE 0SW 35NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 15SE 15SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 85.2W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 84.7W
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 16.4N 86.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 25SE 25SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 16.8N 88.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 17.3N 90.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 17.7N 93.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 18.5N 96.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 85.2W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
NNNN
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Re: Re:
HurrMark wrote:Macrocane wrote:supercane wrote:Are we no longer doing separate advisory threads for Atlantic systems?
Yes, but Harvey doesn't have an advisory thread, anyway I'm sure people won't forget to make one for 97L if it becomes TD 9.
I think everyone was so concerned about Invest 97 that TD Eight, which looked to just remain that and bury itself in Honduras, was an afterthought. Interesting how 24 hours changes things...
There is now a thread for Harvey advisories, thanks to Supercane... viewtopic.php?f=59&t=111540
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145270
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL : HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
The Belize radar will be a very good source to look as Harvey moves thru that area.
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Re: ATL : HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
cycloneye wrote:The Belize radar will be a very good source to look as Harvey moves thru that area.
the 250km loop http://www.hydromet.gov.bz/250-km-radar-loop
& 50km loop http://www.hydromet.gov.bz/50-km-radar-loop
radar are only ones working on BZ Met web.
Despite new NHC track which puts this way to close to my front door, BZ Met is still calling for 6.30pm landfall at Dangriga as just quoted on the local radio. NEMO hasn't issued any new warnings yet, that will probably after I've gone to bed. But BZ Met is calling for hurricane cat 1 but saying its small tight system. Its been really hot & humid all day but air temp is starting to drop, still no winds to speak off on the Placencia peninsula, just gentle puffs of cooler air right now. Had small rain shower about half hour ago. Sea temps have been really hot for months now and current sea surface temp is 84F average, but there are areas near some of the Southern cayes which have been 86F recently. Bathwater temps.
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145270
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL : HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
BZSTORM wrote:cycloneye wrote:The Belize radar will be a very good source to look as Harvey moves thru that area.
the 250km loop http://www.hydromet.gov.bz/250-km-radar-loop
& 50km loop http://www.hydromet.gov.bz/50-km-radar-loop
radar are only ones working on BZ Met web.
Despite new NHC track which puts this way to close to my front door, BZ Met is still calling for 6.30pm landfall at Dangriga as just quoted on the local radio. NEMO hasn't issued any new warnings yet, that will probably after I've gone to bed. But BZ Met is calling for hurricane cat 1 but saying its small tight system. Its been really hot & humid all day but air temp is starting to drop, still no winds to speak off on the Placencia peninsula, just gentle puffs of cooler air right now. Had small rain shower about half hour ago. Sea temps have been really hot for months now and current sea surface temp is 84F average, but there are areas near some of the Southern cayes which have been 86F recently. Bathwater temps.
Stay safe and dry there. When you can of course (Power and Internet permitting) post what is going on.
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and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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Re: ATL : HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Convection has diminished but size has increased, I think it's just a question of time for convection to intensify again.
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SouthDadeFish
- Professional-Met
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- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2010 2:54 pm
- Location: Miami, FL
- Contact:
Re: ATL : HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Macrocane wrote:Convection has diminished but size has increased, I think it's just a question of time for convection to intensify again.
Yeah I'm wondering Harvey is entraining some dry air.
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Re: ATL : HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
SouthDadeFish wrote:
Yeah I'm wondering Harvey is entraining some dry air.
I don't think so as it is embedded within a large envelope of moisture, but for sure it doesn't look as symetric and strong as a couple of hours ago, I don't know why.
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ozonepete
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 4743
- Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 3:23 pm
- Location: From Ozone Park, NYC / Now in Brooklyn, NY
Re: ATL : HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Macrocane wrote:SouthDadeFish wrote:
Yeah I'm wondering Harvey is entraining some dry air.
I don't think so as it is embedded within a large envelope of moisture, but for sure it doesn't look as symetric and strong as a couple of hours ago, I don't know why.
I think land interaction. Once the center gets over the islands it will probably get its symmetry back and there will be the last big flare-up.
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000
WTNT33 KNHC 200546
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011
100 AM CDT SAT AUG 20 2011
...CENTER OF HARVEY APPROACHING THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS...
SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 85.6W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA WESTWARD
* THE COAST OF BELIZE
* THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA GRUESA
SOUTHWARD TO CHETUMAL
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF GUATEMALA
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG A PORTION OF THE COAST OF
BELIZE.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.6 WEST. HARVEY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A GENERAL WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF HARVEY WILL PASS NEAR
OR OVER THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS THIS MORNING AND MOVE ACROSS THE
COAST OF BELIZE THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND HARVEY IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING THE COAST OF BELIZE.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE BAY ISLANDS
AND ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS THIS MORNING...AND OVER THE
COAST OF BELIZE AND THE SOUTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO BY
THIS AFTERNOON. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG A PORTION
OF THE COAST OF BELIZE BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN
COAST OF GUATEMALA LATER TODAY.
RAINFALL...HARVEY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...
BELIZE...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN.
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2
TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE COAST NEAR AND TO THE
NORTH OF WHERE HARVEY MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DAMAGING WAVES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER BERG/STEWART
WTNT33 KNHC 200546
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011
100 AM CDT SAT AUG 20 2011
...CENTER OF HARVEY APPROACHING THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS...
SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 85.6W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA WESTWARD
* THE COAST OF BELIZE
* THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA GRUESA
SOUTHWARD TO CHETUMAL
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF GUATEMALA
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG A PORTION OF THE COAST OF
BELIZE.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.6 WEST. HARVEY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A GENERAL WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF HARVEY WILL PASS NEAR
OR OVER THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS THIS MORNING AND MOVE ACROSS THE
COAST OF BELIZE THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND HARVEY IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING THE COAST OF BELIZE.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE BAY ISLANDS
AND ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS THIS MORNING...AND OVER THE
COAST OF BELIZE AND THE SOUTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO BY
THIS AFTERNOON. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG A PORTION
OF THE COAST OF BELIZE BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN
COAST OF GUATEMALA LATER TODAY.
RAINFALL...HARVEY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...
BELIZE...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN.
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2
TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE COAST NEAR AND TO THE
NORTH OF WHERE HARVEY MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DAMAGING WAVES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER BERG/STEWART
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SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 85.6W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES
Latest microwave:
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 85.6W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES
Latest microwave:
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-
TwisterFanatic
- Category 5
- Posts: 1041
- Joined: Mon Jun 28, 2010 12:43 pm
- Location: Sallisaw, Oklahoma
Re: ATL : HARVEY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 20 AUG 2011 Time : 064500 UTC
Lat : 16:17:21 N Lon : 85:47:40 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.7 / 992.5mb/ 59.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.7 3.7 4.1
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 20 AUG 2011 Time : 064500 UTC
Lat : 16:17:21 N Lon : 85:47:40 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.7 / 992.5mb/ 59.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.7 3.7 4.1
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Scorpion
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