ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Adoquín]

Givent their latest weather forecast, Meteo-France Martinica reported at le Vauclin winds under showers at 65 km/h on average and
gusts to 85 km/h, and gusts reached 100 km/h in higher moutains.

ummmm, I wonder if girlfriend is actually stronger than estimated. Martinique is well to the west of the supposed center at 61W

[Aric Dunn]

Do you think they will degenerate it to an open wave? Or leave it as a minimal storm to allow the watches and warnings to remain?

no they should keep since there is a very broad circ.. still west winds well to the south .. south Of barbados.. its just very disorganized right now.

[SouthFloridawx]

Do you think they will degenerate it to an open wave? Or leave it as a minimal storm to allow the watches and warnings to remain?

no they should keep since there is a very broad circ.. still west winds well to the south .. south Of barbados.. its just very disorganized right now.

Yeah I saw some of those winds... there look to be very few of them though, looking at google earth recon plots. I think the track will need to be adjusted to the west some, being that it's very disorganized and following the low level flow.

[Aric Dunn]

Do you think they will degenerate it to an open wave? Or leave it as a minimal storm to allow the watches and warnings to remain?

no they should keep since there is a very broad circ.. still west winds well to the south .. south Of barbados.. its just very disorganized right now.

Yeah I saw some of those winds... there look to be very few of them though, looking at google earth recon plots. I think the track will need to be adjusted to the west some, being that it's very disorganized and following the low level flow.

Also barbados has the lowest pressure I have seen of 1007mb right which dropped from 1009 last hour.. I think the center is very near by barbados.

1 PM (17) Sep 09 82 (28) 77 (25) 29.74 (1007) NE 5 showers in the vicinity
Noon (16) Sep 09 80 (27) 77 (25) 29.80 (1009) E 9 light rain
11 AM (15) Sep 09 78 (26) 78 (26) 29.80 (1009) E 6 light rain
10 AM (14) Sep 09 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.80 (1009) ENE 13 light rain
9 AM (13) Sep 09 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.83 (1010) ENE 15 light rain

[Adoquín]

http://icons-ak.wunderground.com/data/i ... ensity.gif

the short term intensity gain appears to be more pronounced. The red line would have it reaching border line cat 2 at 48 hours from 6 am this morning. Interestin because some models suggest it will take it 54 hours to get to San Juan, should it go that way.

[SouthFloridawx]

Since there was no VDM, the 2PM advisory is going to be very interesting.

[Aric Dunn]

Since there was no VDM, the 2PM advisory is going to be very interesting.

they will either stick with previous continuity or go off surface obs that point towards something near barbados. but who knows ...

[jhpigott]

What time does the 12z EURO run? 2:30ish?

Also, are the 12z HWRF, GDFL, NOGAPS and UKMET out yet?

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
200 PM AST FRI SEP 09 2011

...MARIA SLOWS DOWN AS IT NEARS THE LESSER ANTILLES...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 57.9W
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM NE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM ESE OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GUADELOUPE
* ST. MAARTIN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* ANTIGUA...ANGUILLA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...NEVIS...SAINT
KITTS AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* DOMINICA
* ST BARTHELEMY...ST MARTEEN...AND MARTINIQUE
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.9 WEST. MARIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF MARIA WILL REACH THE LESSER
ANTILLES EARLY TONIGHT...AND BE NEAR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS BY
SATURDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LESSER
ANTILLES BY LATE TODAY...THEN SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

RAINFALL...MARIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES OVER THE
CENTRAL TO NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND
PUERTO RICO.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[xironman]

Decent initialization on the Euro

[cycloneye]

Maria Slows Down

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
200 PM AST FRI SEP 09 2011

...MARIA SLOWS DOWN AS IT NEARS THE LESSER ANTILLES...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 57.9W
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM NE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM ESE OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

[floridasun78]

so track you think will be pull west at 5pm toward more toward bahamas

[xironman]

Goes NW

[Aric Dunn]

Maria Slows Down

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
200 PM AST FRI SEP 09 2011

...MARIA SLOWS DOWN AS IT NEARS THE LESSER ANTILLES...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 57.9W
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM NE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM ESE OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

yep just went with continuity. just have to wait for next recon or some good surface obs.

[Aric Dunn]

yeah good initialization and just like all the other models does a vanishing act with ridging.... even though its been stronger and building westward this whole time hence the west motion.

[Blown Away]

Aric, do you think the center is at 14.3/57.9?

[jhpigott]

Looks like a decent eastward shift coming with the EURO

[AJC3]

I think you can see what's happening now. Starting last night, the system elongated along a WSW-ENE axis as convection blew up. On the 1715 UTC visible image, you can see what appears to be a cusp at the NE end of the slightly elongated vort axis up around 14.5N/15N and 57.5W, which is NE of the 18Z analyzed NHC position of 14.3N 57.9W. I think this will be the area where the center tries to consolidate, and that you'll likely see a slight northward or northeast shift of the center position relative to it's previous speed/movement, assuming it can consolidate a little better.

[xironman]

Then WNW, I believe this run is much more on.

[calmbeforestorm1]

Aric, do you think the center is at 14.3/57.9?

I think it is more likely there is/will be a center at or north of their position then south and west of that fix.