ATL: LEE - Remnants - Discussion

[EasyTiger]

So, will we see an upgrade at 11am update?

Looking at the latest models and TVCN I'd expect a westward shift in track as well.

Getting the sense that this is looking like a TX/LA border landfall. Models may have been right the past 24-48 hours calling for a NW movement followed by movement to the NE. It all depends on the front. If the front stalls, it could get real ugly from a precipitation perspective.

If the front stalls and doesn't pick this up it will also open up the possibility of a much more Westward or Southwestward track. Of course if the rebuilding high doesn't grab it either, then LA could really see some incredible rainfall totals.

I cannot remember how many times a late summer front is advertised only to result in a stalled front with moisture pooling ahead of it. Like they always say, I'll believe it when I see it. Not sure if I would rather see the rain or lower temps and dewpoints. Of course, drier air in TX would not be a good thing at this point in time and only help to exacerbate fire danger.

[Dave]

[Dean4Storms]

I don't believe the BAMM models handle synoptics with the westerlies too well. Better to pay more attention to the Global models and their ensembles with a CONUS trough involved.

[Javlin]

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.3N 91.5W
ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SE OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

27.3N 91.5W NW 2 (2) 29.68 (1005) 35 (30)
27N 91.6W N 1 (1) 29.68 (1005) 35 (30)
26.5N 91.7W NW 2 (2) 29.71 (1006) 35 (30)
26.3N 91.5W

Little bit of an issue with NW movement looks due N to me???

[Dave]

It was send at 1435Z, so not your mistake, Dave

I saw that a few minutes ago...lol...in the middle we had a heat advisory for our entire region come out so just put it out on the sms system & county 911 freqs at the same time. Welcome to my world!

[Dave]

430
URNT15 KNHC 021504
AF306 0213A CYCLONE HDOB 22 20110902
145500 2720N 09035W 8428 01546 0064 +181 +105 196016 017 029 000 00
145530 2720N 09033W 8429 01546 0064 +183 +105 198017 018 029 000 03
145600 2720N 09031W 8425 01552 0066 +182 +106 189016 017 /// /// 03
145630 2722N 09031W 8429 01548 0068 +180 +107 182014 015 /// /// 03
145700 2723N 09033W 8430 01543 0065 +180 +107 181014 014 031 000 00
145730 2724N 09034W 8433 01540 0063 +183 +108 180013 014 029 000 00
145800 2725N 09036W 8428 01546 0061 +185 +108 180011 012 028 000 00
145830 2726N 09038W 8426 01549 0064 +181 +108 184012 013 021 002 03
145900 2725N 09039W 8426 01544 0063 +180 +108 186009 010 027 000 03
145930 2724N 09040W 8433 01540 0061 +183 +109 189011 012 027 000 00
150000 2722N 09041W 8425 01548 0062 +181 +109 196012 013 027 000 00
150030 2721N 09042W 8432 01542 0063 +182 +108 197011 012 025 001 00
150100 2720N 09043W 8428 01544 0064 +180 +108 193010 010 027 000 00
150130 2718N 09044W 8426 01546 0065 +179 +109 189009 009 024 000 03
150200 2717N 09044W 8429 01545 0064 +184 +109 194011 012 /// /// 03
150230 2716N 09043W 8430 01545 0061 +185 +110 193014 014 /// /// 03
150300 2717N 09041W 8426 01547 0061 +183 +110 188014 015 023 000 03
150330 2718N 09040W 8428 01545 0061 +182 +110 188014 014 025 001 00
150400 2719N 09038W 8430 01543 0061 +185 +109 190015 016 026 001 00
150430 2720N 09037W 8425 01549 0062 +181 +109 190016 016 026 001 00
$$
;

[jabman98]

I see people talking about the front stalling. Is there any indication that is happening?

It's a really nice morning here in Houston. Cool and dry, at least in comparison to what it has been recently. I really wish we were getting this rain. Sigh.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Gcane the system is definitly starting to get that look on the N,E and S sides and is building W as we speak.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html

Absolutely Javlin. She's firing very high rain rate, borderline hot-tower.

She's ramping up.

If she starts to fill the NW quad, she'll go to town.


[img]http://i.imgur.com/s84xv.jp g [/img]

I agree, if it fills in and gets a bit more balanced on the NW side, it will ramp up VERY quickly.

Also, whats up with the second circulation the recon is finding? Sorry if it was discussed earlier in the thread.....

[Dave]

[pwrdog]

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.3N 91.5W
ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SE OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

27.3N 91.5W NW 2 (2) 29.68 (1005) 35 (30)
27N 91.6W N 1 (1) 29.68 (1005) 35 (30)
26.5N 91.7W NW 2 (2) 29.71 (1006) 35 (30)
26.3N 91.5W

Little bit of an issue with NW movement looks due N to me???

When it's moving 1 to 2 mph... ??

[CaneCurious]

If this parks for days and inundates New Orleans, can the pumps handle all that rain? Have they all been fixed yet? Will the lake overtop? Could his be anohter Katrina-like flooding event for the city?

Our local officials are confident that our pumps and levees will be able to handle this event. As long as we don't get the 20 inches in the same day, we shoudl be fine.

[Dave]

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 37kts (~ 42.6mph) in the north quadrant at 12:08:10Z

Possibly received from a *separate* recco, vdm or dropsonde that hasn't been published to the web at this time. I've seen it happen before...my opinion only.

[Dave]

137
URNT15 KNHC 021514
AF306 0213A CYCLONE HDOB 23 20110902
150500 2721N 09036W 8429 01542 0065 +180 +110 192015 016 027 000 00
150530 2723N 09034W 8433 01545 0066 +181 +109 195017 017 029 000 03
150600 2722N 09032W 8422 01553 0066 +184 +109 198016 017 /// /// 03
150630 2721N 09033W 8424 01551 0064 +185 +110 197014 015 027 001 03
150700 2720N 09034W 8427 01548 0060 +186 +110 199013 014 027 000 00
150730 2719N 09035W 8428 01547 0060 +186 +110 200013 013 024 001 00
150800 2718N 09037W 8425 01548 0062 +182 +110 199010 011 025 000 00
150830 2717N 09038W 8433 01542 0062 +185 +110 201011 011 024 000 00
150900 2716N 09039W 8428 01545 0060 +185 +110 199011 012 025 000 00
150930 2715N 09040W 8432 01540 0058 +187 +109 197011 011 023 001 00
151000 2714N 09042W 8426 01546 0058 +186 +109 189009 010 020 001 00
151030 2712N 09043W 8432 01541 0058 +186 +110 188009 009 020 001 00
151100 2711N 09044W 8425 01547 0059 +186 +109 199009 010 020 001 00
151130 2710N 09046W 8426 01545 0058 +186 +109 200009 010 020 001 00
151200 2709N 09047W 8430 01542 0059 +187 +109 197008 009 021 000 00
151230 2708N 09048W 8436 01538 0059 +187 +110 196008 009 020 000 00
151300 2707N 09049W 8426 01546 0056 +190 +109 196009 009 020 000 00
151330 2706N 09051W 8432 01540 0055 +192 +109 196008 009 021 000 00
151400 2705N 09052W 8428 01545 0057 +188 +109 209006 007 021 000 00
151430 2704N 09053W 8427 01544 0059 +184 +109 233004 005 020 000 00
$$
;

[tailgater]

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.3N 91.5W
ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SE OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

27.3N 91.5W NW 2 (2) 29.68 (1005) 35 (30)
27N 91.6W N 1 (1) 29.68 (1005) 35 (30)
26.5N 91.7W NW 2 (2) 29.71 (1006) 35 (30)
26.3N 91.5W

Little bit of an issue with NW movement looks due N to me???

I don't they have settled down to one center yet so forward motion is just an estimate.

[GCANE]

JB Tweets:

Joe Bastardi
astounding.. they did not name and claim the rig observations dont have gales

[Dean4Storms]

I have a feeling this may continue to relocate further east or NE into the deeper convection and put the threat more toward AL and FL Panhandle.

[EasyTiger]

I see people talking about the front stalling. Is there any indication that is happening?

It's a really nice morning here in Houston. Cool and dry, at least in comparison to what it has been recently. I really wish we were getting this rain. Sigh.

No indication at all that the front is stalling. Just basing the idea on early season fronts that were progged to pass through the Gulf states in previous years. Many times, these fronts never actually made it. It this were mid to late September this would be a no brainer, but we are a couple days out of August which makes the idea of a front a little more suspicious.

With that being said, this is by no means a forecast, but rather an opinion based on previous experience.

[cycloneye]

JB Tweets:

Joe Bastardi
astounding.. they did not name and claim the rig observations dont have gales

Here is the excerpt from 11 AM discussion that eludes to the oil rigs.

OIL RIG
OBSERVATIONS WELL ABOVE THE SURFACE ALSO SUGGEST THE SYSTEM IS
STILL A DEPRESSION.

[tailgater]

Did they drop something? what's with this crazy pattern they are flying. are they looking for somrthing?

[Dave]