ATL : HARVEY - Tropical Depression - Discussion

[BZSTORM]

I'd like to thank everyone who posted recon info and Supercane for the graphics, really appreciated.

[HurrMark]

As long as land doesn't interfere, I wouldn't disagree...this has excellent conditions to intensify and seems to be taking advantage of them. We will see what they say at 11.

[cycloneye]

Just before landfall a hurricane at 11 PM advisory.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 16.8N 88.5W...INLAND
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW.

[Macrocane]

Forecast advisory number 5 says it's 50 kt now and will peak at 65 kt.

000
WTNT23 KNHC 200249
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011
0300 UTC SAT AUG 20 2011

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE NORTH COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA WESTWARD WITH A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA WESTWARD
* THE COAST OF BELIZE
* THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA GRUESA
SOUTHWARD TO CHETUMAL

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF GUATEMALA

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG A PORTION OF THE COAST OF
BELIZE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 85.2W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT....... 35NE 20SE 0SW 35NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 15SE 15SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 85.2W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 84.7W

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 16.4N 86.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 25SE 25SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 16.8N 88.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 17.3N 90.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 17.7N 93.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 18.5N 96.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 85.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[SouthDadeFish]

Anyone know where they got the 994mb reading from? That's even lower than what recon found...

EDIT: I just read the discussion. Nevermind.

[HurrMark]

Just before landfall a hurricane at 11 PM advisory.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 16.8N 88.5W...INLAND
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW.

There are no hurricane watches/warnings though...Belize government should update them.

[HurricaneBelle]

There are no hurricane watches/warnings though...Belize government should update them.

Interestingly, NHC threw this into the advisory:

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG A PORTION OF THE COAST OF
BELIZE.

In other words, "Hey, Belize Weather Service, take a hint."

[Brent]

and to think when this formed last night the NHC wasn't even totally sure it'd get a name!

[Macrocane]

Here's the Forecast discussion

000
WTNT43 KNHC 200253
TCDAT3

TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011
1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011

DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT THIS
EVENING INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF HARVEY WAS LOCATED JUST NORTH
OF THE COAST OF HONDURAS. THIS WAS A LITTLE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
EARLIER ESTIMATES AND REQUIRED A RELOCATION ON THE 0000 UTC
INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY. THE AIRCRAFT ALSO REPORTED A MAXIMUM 700 MB
FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 53 KT AND BELIEVABLE SFMR WINDS OF 45-50 KT. A
DROPSONDE THAT JUST MISSED THE CENTER MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE
OF 997 MB WITH 32 KT AT THE SURFACE. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE MINIMUM
PRESSURE IS AROUND 994 MB... A DROP OF ABOUT 11 MB SINCE THIS
MORNING. THESE DATA SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KT.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK ARE CONDUCIVE FOR
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING. HARVEY WILL BE TRAVERSING VERY WARM
WATER AND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT. THE ONLY INHIBITING
FACTOR IS ITS CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LAND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
ASSUMES THAT HARVEY WILL MOVE A LITTLE NORTH OF DUE WEST AND
BE FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS NEAR THE UPPER END OF
THE GUIDANCE...IN CLOSEST AGREEMENT WITH THE STATISTICAL SHIPS AND
LGEM MODELS. THE NEW FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR HARVEY TO BECOME A
HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING THE COAST OF BELIZE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.
AFTER LANDFALL...STEADY WEAKENING IS PREDICTED AND HARVEY IS LIKELY
TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO IN 2-3 DAYS.

BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT FIXES THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/8...A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED. HARVEY SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
RIDGE ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE TRACK
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO. HOWEVER...
THE 0000 UTC GUIDANCE SHIFTED A LITTLE SOUTHWARD...PRIMARILY DUE TO
THE SOUTHEASTWARD RELOCATION OF THE CENTER. THIS REQUIRED A
SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE NHC TRACK AND THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST
REMAINS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0300Z 16.2N 85.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 16.4N 86.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 21/0000Z 16.8N 88.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
36H 21/1200Z 17.3N 90.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
48H 22/0000Z 17.7N 93.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 23/0000Z 18.5N 96.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BLAKE

[SouthDadeFish]

The NHC forecast track has Harvey slowing moving away from the coast of Honduras. I'm afraid of what this separation will result it, in terms of intensification. 11mb drop since this morning as NHC said, and that was without a closed eyewall. Imagine what may happen with a closed eyewall. In my opinion Belize needs to issue a hurricane warning ASAP. I hope they made all their preparations tonight, because they won't have much time to do them tomorrow.

[supercane]

Are we no longer doing separate advisory threads for Atlantic systems?

[Adoquín]

I think 65k sustained may be too conservative. The water gets hotter as you get closer to Belize

[Macrocane]

Are we no longer doing separate advisory threads for Atlantic systems?

Yes, but Harvey doesn't have an advisory thread, anyway I'm sure people won't forget to make one for 97L if it becomes TD 9 .

[HurrMark]

I think 65k sustained may be too conservative. The water gets hotter as you get closer to Belize

Well, it is inland at that point, so some weakening may have already taken place.

[HurrMark]

Are we no longer doing separate advisory threads for Atlantic systems?

Yes, but Harvey doesn't have an advisory thread, anyway I'm sure people won't forget to make one for 97L if it becomes TD 9 .

I think everyone was so concerned about Invest 97 that TD Eight, which looked to just remain that and bury itself in Honduras, was an afterthought. Interesting how 24 hours changes things...

[supercane]

ZCZC MIATCPAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011
1100 PM EDT THU AUG 18 2011

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 82.1W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM ENE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF GUATEMALA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE COAST OF GUATEMALA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF GUATEMALA

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTH COAST
OF HONDURAS AND THE BAY ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.1 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION SHOULD MOVE
NEAR OR OVER THE NORTH COAST OF HONDURAS BY FRIDAY MORNING...AND
APPROACH SOUTHERN BELIZE ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM ON
FRIDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTH COAST
OF HONDURAS ON FRIDAY AND ON THE COAST OF GUATEMALA ON SATURDAY.

RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS HONDURAS...GUATEMALA AND
BELIZE WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE
RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...
ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BROWN

NNNN

ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011
1100 PM EDT THU AUG 18 2011

SATELLITE IMAGES DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNSET INDICATED
THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF THE WAVE OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA WAS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED WITH LOW CLOUDS MOVING
WITHIN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN
HONDURAS. MICROWAVE DATA FROM THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS CONFIRM THAT
THE SYSTEM HAS A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND A RECENT 0134Z SSMIS
PASS EVEN HAS A WEAK RING FEATURE IN THE 37 GHZ CHANNEL.
SIGNIFICANT 24H PRESSURE FALLS OF 3 TO 4 MB HAVE ALSO BEEN OBSERVED
AT BUOY 42057...WHICH HAVE LONG BEEN A HALLMARK OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION. DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...IN
ADDITION TO THE ABOVE DATA...SUPPORT ADVISORIES BEING INITIATED ON
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. A PEAK 1-MIN WIND OF 27 KT FROM THE BUOY
AND EARLIER ASCAT DATA SUGGEST AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF ABOUT 30 KT.

THE DEPRESSION DOES NOT HAVE MUCH TIME TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE
THE CIRCULATION INTERACTS WITH THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS.
ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS. GIVEN HOW CLOSE THE SYSTEM IS TO
LAND...IT IS ALSO QUITE POSSIBLE THE DEPRESSION MAY NOT STRENGTHEN
AT ALL AND WEAKEN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF HONDURAS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/10. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD GENERALLY STEER THE SYSTEM TO THE WEST OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS...WITH THE GFDL FORECAST OF THE DEPRESSION MOVING
INTO THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE BEING CONSIDERED AN UNLIKELY
SOLUTION. THE NHC FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS AND THE ECMWF MODEL.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0300Z 15.4N 82.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 19/1200Z 15.5N 83.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 20/0000Z 15.7N 84.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 20/1200Z 15.9N 86.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 21/0000Z 16.2N 88.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 22/0000Z 17.0N 93.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BROWN

NNNN

ZCZC MIATCUAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011
1200 AM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011

AT 1200 AM EDT...0400 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE
HONDURAS-NICARAGUA BORDER TO THE HONDURAS-GUATEMALA BORDER...
INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/AVILA


NNNN
ZCZC MIATCPAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011
200 AM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING TOWARDS THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN
HONDURAS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 82.9W
ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM NNE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS
* THE COAST OF GUATEMALA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE AT ANY TIME WITHIN THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT
WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.9 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION SHOULD MOVE
NEAR OR OVER THE NORTH COAST OF HONDURAS THIS MORNING...AND
APPROACH SOUTHERN BELIZE ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TODAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTH COAST
OF HONDURAS TODAY AND TONIGHT AND ON THE COAST OF GUATEMALA ON
SATURDAY.

RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...AND
BELIZE WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE
RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...
ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/AVILA

NNNN

ZCZC MIATCMAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011
0300 UTC FRI AUG 19 2011

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF GUATEMALA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE COAST OF GUATEMALA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF GUATEMALA

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTH COAST
OF HONDURAS AND THE BAY ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 82.1W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 82.1W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 81.6W

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 15.5N 83.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 15.7N 84.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 0SE 0SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 15.9N 86.6W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 0SE 0SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 16.2N 88.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 17.0N 93.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 82.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BROWN


NNNN

[SouthDadeFish]

Not the deepest warm waters in the Caribbean but definitely enough TCHP for quick intensification:

[supercane]

ZCZC MIATCPAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011
500 AM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION VERY NEAR THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN
HONDURAS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 83.2W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM N OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS
* THE COAST OF GUATEMALA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE AT ANY TIME WITHIN THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT
WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.2 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS THROUGH SATURDAY AND
MOVE INLAND OVER BELIZE AND GUATEMALA BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST...BUT ONLY A
SMALL INCREASE IN THE WINDS WOULD BRING THE DEPRESSION TO TROPICAL
STORM STATUS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN
COAST AND OVER THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS TODAY AND TONIGHT AND ON
THE COAST OF GUATEMALA ON SATURDAY. STRONG GUSTY WINDS COULD ALSO
AFFECT BELIZE ON SATURDAY.

RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...AND
BELIZE WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE
RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...
ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/AVILA

NNNN

ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011
500 AM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011

THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT BEEN EASY TO LOCATE THIS
MORNING. BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM EARLIER MICROWAVE DATA...THE
CENTER IS ESTIMATED TO BE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A SMALL
CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION OFF THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS.
THIS YIELDS AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 270/10. THE DEPRESSION
IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A MORE-OR-LESS WESTWARD MOTION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF ITS EXISTENCE WHILE BEING STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES AT THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...NEAR THE GFS...ECMWF...AND THE
SIMPLER BAM MODELS. ALTHOUGH A 72 HOUR FORECAST POINT IS
PROVIDED...IT IS LIKELY THAT THE HIGH TERRAIN OF GUATEMALA AND
SOUTHERN MEXICO WILL HAVE ANNIHILATED THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION BY
THAT TIME.

DVORAK NUMBERS ARE T2.0 FROM TAFB AND T2.5 FROM SAB...AND THE
INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 30 KT. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION LATER THIS
MORNING AND SHOULD PROVIDE MORE CERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY...NOT TO
MENTION THE CENTER LOCATION...IF IT EXISTS AT ALL. LITTLE TO NO
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS SINCE THE
DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO SKIRT ALONG THE COAST OF...OR MOVE INLAND
OVER...HONDURAS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE
INTENSITY CONSENSUS...BUT IF THE DEPRESSION MOVES OVER WATER FOR A
LONGER PERIOD OF TIME IT COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE AS SHOWN BY
THE STATISTICAL SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS. IT COULD ALSO JUST AS
EASILY MOVE OVER LAND AND NEVER RE-EMERGE OVER WATER...WHICH MAY
PRECLUDE ANY INTENSIFICATION AT ALL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0900Z 15.5N 83.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 19/1800Z 15.6N 84.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 20/0600Z 15.8N 86.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 20/1800Z 16.1N 87.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 21/0600Z 16.4N 89.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 22/0600Z 17.0N 94.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BERG/AVILA

NNNN

ZCZC MIATCMAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011
0900 UTC FRI AUG 19 2011

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS
* THE COAST OF GUATEMALA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE AT ANY TIME WITHIN THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 83.2W AT 19/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 83.2W AT 19/0900Z
AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 82.8W

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 15.6N 84.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 15.8N 86.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 0SE 0SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 16.1N 87.8W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 20SE 20SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 16.4N 89.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 17.0N 94.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 83.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG


NNNN

[supercane]

ZCZC MIATCPAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011
800 AM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011

...CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION NEAR THE HONDURAN COAST...HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT ABOUT TO ARRIVE...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 83.7W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM NW OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS
* THE COAST OF GUATEMALA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE AT ANY TIME WITHIN THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT
WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.7 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS TODAY AND SATURDAY AND
MOVE INLAND OVER BELIZE AND GUATEMALA BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST...BUT ONLY A
SMALL INCREASE WOULD BRING THE DEPRESSION TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN
COAST OF HONDURAS AND OVER THE BAY ISLANDS TODAY AND TONIGHT AND ON
THE COAST OF GUATEMALA ON SATURDAY. STRONG GUSTY WINDS COULD ALSO
AFFECT BELIZE ON SATURDAY.

RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...AND
BELIZE...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE
RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...
ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

NNNN

ZCZC MIATCUAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011
835 AM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS THAT THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION
FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST...

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT IS LOCATED ABOUT
35 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE POSITION IN THE 8 AM INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY.

SUMMARY OF 835 AM EDT...1235 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 83.3W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM N OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...16 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

NNNN

[CrazyC83]

That just shows the limitations when the NHC lacks jurisdiction. It is up to Belize to upgrade warnings.