ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

[NDG]

So how many of you think that the NHC may go ahead in upgrading 90L to TD 4 at 15z?
A closed surface circulation is now very evident based on radar, satellite and surface observations with 1.5 sat classification.

NDG I think they'll wait for RECON just a few hours later. You know how conservative NHC is.

Yeah, I agree, but you know how they sometimes throw a curve ball at us, lol.

[cycloneye]

ATCF has not renumbered 90L,and that is the best sign they will wait for the plane.

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/

[bbadon]

I think they may go TD4 at 10a.m. for emergency planning purposes.

[tolakram]

Loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10

[Crackbone]

Loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10

OT, Hebron KY eh? I'm in Edgewood

[NDG]

The circulation is beginning to poke out the northern side of the convection from the northerly shear.. pretty apparent we have a closed surface circ. and it seems as though its trying to get pulled north... at the moment..

Initially I thought the same but as vis sat pics keep coming in it appears that the possible LLC is staying under the covers.
But yeah, Cancun and Cuban radar shows that the deep convection is to the south of the COC, it might be already feeling the NE shear.

well half is exposed. convection keeps trying to refire. the shear should relax though today.

Latest RUC sounding in the northern half of 90L shows some dry air intrussion from the NE in the mid levels.
Makes sense for the lack of deep convection in that area.

[plasticup]

I think they may go TD4 at 10a.m. for emergency planning purposes.

The NHC makes its decisions based on scientific data, not social or political factors.

[Rgv20]

Honestly I do not trust no model with this system maybe the exception being the ECMWF as it has been the most consistent and it shows a landfall between Brownsville and Corpus.

[RL3AO]

I believe within a few years, NHC would coordinate with Mexico to start issuing watches and warnings and NHC would even issue a forecast before it even becomes a tropical cyclone.

[TheBurn]

[Roxy]

0z GFDL.....right up the Houston Ship channel ala IKE.....at 66knts....also a Cat 1

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

Good, that means that it definitely won't go right up the Houston ship channel! If you are in the "cone" this far out, no way it's headed your way. IMO.

Been wrong before though.

[HURAKAN]

latest visible

[thetruesms]

So how many of you think that the NHC may go ahead in upgrading 90L to TD 4 at 15z?
A closed surface circulation is now very evident based on radar, satellite and surface observations with 1.5 sat classification.

I'm hesitant to say that it's evident - I haven't yet seen something that tells me with absolute certainty that we have a closed circulation. What's out there is very highly suggestive though, that much is certain. I suppose it's really just splitting hairs, though. NHC will almost certainly wait for recon, at which point I'd expect them to find something there waiting for them.

Edit - I should probably clarify that I would say I agree that there is an LLC there, I just wouldn't say it's coming out and slapping everyone in the face.

[Ivanhater]

I see models shifting toward Houston and Louisiana...good to see Wxwarrior back

[wxman57]

Looks like an LLC up around 22N/86.6W - on the northern side of the convection. I think it's a TD now and possibly a TS.

[RL3AO]

You want recon? You got it.

Code: Select all

NOUS42 KNHC 271415
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1015 AM EDT WED 27 JULY 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 28/1100Z TO 29/1100Z JULY 2011
         TCPOD NUMBER.....11-057

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. SUSPECT AREA
       FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71      FLIGHT TWO - NOAA 49
       A. 28/1200,1800Z          A. 29/0000Z
       B. AFXXX 0204A CYCLONE    B. NOAA9 0304A CYCLONE
       C. 28/1000Z               C. 28/1730Z
       D. 23.9N 90.2W            D. NA
       E. 28/1130Z TO 28/1800Z   E. NA
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT       F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT
       FLIGHT THREE - NOAA 42    FLIGHT FOUR - TEAL 72
       A. 29/0000Z               A. 29/0000,0600Z
       B. NOAA2 0404A CYCLONE    B. AFXXX 0504A CYCLONE
       C. 28/2000Z               C. 28/2215Z
       D. 25.1N 92.3W            D. 25.1N 92.3W
       E. 28/2200 TO 29/0230Z    E. 28/2330Z TO 29/0600Z
       F. SFC TO 15,000 FT       F. SFC TO 15,000 FT
       FLIGHT FIVE - NOAA 42
       A. 29/1200Z
       B. NOAA2 0604A CYCLONE
       C. 29/0800Z
       D. 26.4N 94.3W
       E. 29/1030Z TO 29/1430Z
       F. SFC TO 15,000 FT
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE 3-HRLY FIXES.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS....NEGATIVE/ JWP


[cycloneye]

Here is todays TCPOD and look how busy they will be in the next couple of days. Among the flights,there will be the gulfstream jet.

Code: Select all

NOUS42 KNHC 271415
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1015 AM EDT WED 27 JULY 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 28/1100Z TO 29/1100Z JULY 2011
         TCPOD NUMBER.....11-057

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. SUSPECT AREA
       FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71      FLIGHT TWO - NOAA 49
       A. 28/1200,1800Z          A. 29/0000Z
       B. AFXXX 0204A CYCLONE    B. NOAA9 0304A CYCLONE
       C. 28/1000Z               C. 28/1730Z
       D. 23.9N 90.2W            D. NA
       E. 28/1130Z TO 28/1800Z   E. NA
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT       F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT
       FLIGHT THREE - NOAA 42    FLIGHT FOUR - TEAL 72
       A. 29/0000Z               A. 29/0000,0600Z
       B. NOAA2 0404A CYCLONE    B. AFXXX 0504A CYCLONE
       C. 28/2000Z               C. 28/2215Z
       D. 25.1N 92.3W            D. 25.1N 92.3W
       E. 28/2200 TO 29/0230Z    E. 28/2330Z TO 29/0600Z
       F. SFC TO 15,000 FT       F. SFC TO 15,000 FT
       FLIGHT FIVE - NOAA 42
       A. 29/1200Z
       B. NOAA2 0604A CYCLONE
       C. 29/0800Z
       D. 26.4N 94.3W
       E. 29/1030Z TO 29/1430Z
       F. SFC TO 15,000 FT
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE 3-HRLY FIXES.


[BeachBumJen]

0z GFDL.....right up the Houston Ship channel ala IKE.....at 66knts....also a Cat 1

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

Good, that means that it definitely won't go right up the Houston ship channel! If you are in the "cone" this far out, no way it's headed your way. IMO.

Been wrong before though.

You say that now Roxy, but don't you remember IKE? 3 and 4 days out thay projected a Rio Grand hit...Houstone was in the cone just just a hair....We know where it ended up. A lot can change in a day or two so at this point no one knows. IMO I suggest that anyone from Beaumont to Mex border get their flash lights ready! Although this may not be a big storm but we all know it does not take more then a small thunder store to sometimes knock out the lights!

[HURAKAN]

I can do the graphics today

[HouTXmetro]

Looks like an LLC up around 22N/86.6W - on the northern side of the convection. I think it's a TD now and possibly a TS.

It's looking impressive this morning in terms of presentation for a TD....35Kmph was the 8AM update on Weatherunderground