ATL: IRENE - Models

[Ivanhater]

Yep..Euro Ensembles still split with central Gulf or Florida Peninsula...about half getting trapped by a ridge and pushes wnw toward the central gulf ala Canadian and UKMET

[Rgv20]

Which is pretty much where the HPC/NHC agreed track is as well reading between the lines.

Also note how strong the reflection is at that point, for the ensembles thats quite impressive at 168hrs out!

If the ECMWF Ensembles mean verify the west coast of Florida is going to be in for a rough couple of days.

[Scorpion]

This really has no chance of going further west than the FL peninsula, I don't know why so many people are trying to think it does. The GFS and Euro already have gone their furthest west and have now hammered out the landfall location pretty much. Just because some ensembles take it further west does not make a trend.

Edited by Ivanhater to include S2K Disclaimer

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[gatorcane]

This really has no chance of going further west than the FL peninsula, I don't know why so many people are trying to think it does. The GFS and Euro already have gone their furthest west and have now hammered out the landfall location pretty much.

I wouldn't be so sure about that given the ECMWF and GFS ensembles. No doubt the FL peninsula is a possible target but could just as easily track west towards the panhandle or even east of Florida (there are some ensembles that take it into the Bahamas east of Florida and several into the panhandle or even North Central GOM)....too early to say for sure.

[Ivanhater]

This really has no chance of going further west than the FL peninsula, I don't know why so many people are trying to think it does. The GFS and Euro already have gone their furthest west and have now hammered out the landfall location pretty much.

You must be kidding....no chance to go further west than the Peninsula? HPC and NHC places this WEST of the Peninsula...

[ronjon]

Looks like the spread in model solutions hasn't narrowed much today other to say maybe from Mobile on the west to the east coast of FL - all signs still pointing toward a track in the extreme eastern GOM or west side of the FL peninsula - but we are still 5-6 days away - better clarity by tomorrow night. I noticed the ECM brings soon to be Irene across Hispaniola and exits off the north side and then runs the storm along the north side of Cuban coast unlike this mornings run along the south side of the Cuban coast.

[storm4u]

im curious where the gfs initializes this in 20 min

[DeanDaDream]

This really has no chance of going further west than the FL peninsula, I don't know why so many people are trying to think it does. The GFS and Euro already have gone their furthest west and have now hammered out the landfall location pretty much. Just because some ensembles take it further west does not make a trend.

Scorpion can you explain in more detail please.

[Ivanhater]

Quite a few Euro ensemble members take this pretty far west..

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS rolling shortly....wouldn't be surprised if it ever so slightly nudges the long-term track west again...putting it in the EGOM just offshore the SW Coast of FL heading NNW or NW....I say this since the GFS and ECMWF ensembles are more west.

[Aric Dunn]

Things will change now likely east more come 00z in that it will Irene sooner way sooner than all the models developed it and also way stronger !! and farther north initialized position..

[ronjon]

18Z GFS rolling shortly....wouldn't be surprised if it ever so slightly nudges the long-term track west again...putting it in the EGOM just offshore the SW Coast of FL heading NNW or NW....I say this since the GFS and ECMWF ensembles are more west.

I dunno - might follow the 12z Euro - models seem to be flag flapping today a bit.

[KWT]

Need to watch the 00z runs really, not sure it'll make a huge amount of difference myself given most models close it off between 18z todsay and 18z tomorrow anyway, may just mean a track through the heart of Hispaniola rather then just to the south.

[BigB0882]

This really has no chance of going further west than the FL peninsula, I don't know why so many people are trying to think it does. The GFS and Euro already have gone their furthest west and have now hammered out the landfall location pretty much. Just because some ensembles take it further west does not make a trend.

Edited by Ivanhater to include S2K Disclaimer

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

That is just silly. The models are hinting at ridging being stronger than forecast. There is absolutely ways for this to go further west, mostly dependent on that ridging and timing. To say it has no chance means you don't seem to understand the synoptics very well.

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS rolling shortly....wouldn't be surprised if it ever so slightly nudges the long-term track west again...putting it in the EGOM just offshore the SW Coast of FL heading NNW or NW....I say this since the GFS and ECMWF ensembles are more west.

I dunno - might follow the 12z Euro - models seem to be flag flapping today a bit.

Hmm, wouldn't it be nice if they shift east of Florida, though I don't think we will get so lucky.

Note the Euro waits for a couple of more days to develop this, so it may shift to the east of Florida if this deepens more quickly than expected....

There are several GFS ensembles east of Florida.

[Dean4Storms]

This really has no chance of going further west than the FL peninsula, I don't know why so many people are trying to think it does. The GFS and Euro already have gone their furthest west and have now hammered out the landfall location pretty much. Just because some ensembles take it further west does not make a trend.

Scorpion can you explain in more detail please.

He did in that paragraph. Going by only two global models of one day of runs on a system +5 days out = Not sound reasoning!

[3090]

This really has no chance of going further west than the FL peninsula, I don't know why so many people are trying to think it does. The GFS and Euro already have gone their furthest west and have now hammered out the landfall location pretty much. Just because some ensembles take it further west does not make a trend.

Edited by Ivanhater to include S2K Disclaimer

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Based on what? Throwing darts on a board? This sytem is way to far away from any POSSIBLE U.S. landfall my friend, to make a statement such as yours. You are very misinformed about how tricky it is to forecast tropical systems.

[ronjon]

Things will change now likely east more come 00z in that it will Irene sooner way sooner than all the models developed it and also way stronger !! and farther north initialized position..

Perhaps Aric, but it doesn't look all that organized to me and its very broad - these large systems tend to take some time organizing. Most of the globals on't really strengthen her till south of PR.

[Aric Dunn]

Things will change now likely east more come 00z in that it will Irene sooner way sooner than all the models developed it and also way stronger !! and farther north initialized position..

Perhaps Aric, but it doesn't look all that organized to me and its very broad - these large systems tend to take some time organizing. Most of the globals on't really strengthen her till south of PR.

yeah typically... but she is already 50mph... none of the models had her at that till near hispaniola.

[fci]

How long this takes to finally come together will keep moving models to the left. The slow development continues the pattern of this season.
From where I live, the longer it takes the better (sorry EGOM and GOMers)