ATL: Ex INVEST 92L - Discussion

[SouthDadeFish]

Btw the 12Z GFS likes it again.

[Jevo]

It's got some dry air ahead of it .. however the shear conditions look pretty calm until about 58 or so.. It needs to start gaining some Latitude or else its going to be a rainy day in Venezuela

[floridasun78]

It's got some dry air ahead of it .. however the shear conditions look pretty calm until about 58 or so.. It needs to start gaining some Latitude or else its going to be a rainy day in Venezuela

i heard shear should drop by time ex92l get to 58w

[Aric Dunn]

Started to look a little more impressive this afternoon. The Circ is tightening up and convection slowly building over it. shear is not too bad now which should allow for some modest strengthening once/ if it gets going.

looks like LLC trying to develop around 11n 28 W

[AJC3]

Haven't has a chance to look at the model guidance this morning but there appears to be a good looking mid level circulation about 10 degrees farther east and a little farther north (13-14N, 18-20W). This area would seem to have a better moisture envelope, and the low level CU lines do appears to be flowing into this area, which would rob some of the convergence away from the lead system out in front of it, which is very near the much drier and stable Saharan air layer.

Will be headed into work to do some admin stuff and will check the high-res H85 vort fields of the globals and let you know what I see.

[cycloneye]

Haven't has a chance to look at the model guidance this morning but there appears to be a good looking mid level circulation about 10 degrees farther east and a little farther north (13-14N, 18-20W). This area would seem to have a better moisture envelope, and the low level CU lines do appears to be flowing into this area, which would rob some of the convergence away from the lead system out in front of it, which is very near the much drier and stable Saharan air layer.

Will be headed into work to do some admin stuff and will check the high-res H85 vort fields of the globals and let you know what I see.

Tony,in other words,from the wave now emerging Africa ( Thread at Talking Tropics)

[Aric Dunn]

Haven't has a chance to look at the model guidance this morning but there appears to be a good looking mid level circulation about 10 degrees farther east and a little farther north (13-14N, 18-20W). This area would seem to have a better moisture envelope, and the low level CU lines do appears to be flowing into this area, which would rob some of the convergence away from the lead system out in front of it, which is very near the much drier and stable Saharan air layer.

Will be headed into work to do some admin stuff and will check the high-res H85 vort fields of the globals and let you know what I see.

yeah, but the lead system does not appear to be moving much. the MLC should over run it in the next 24 hrs and could get things going more.

[AJC3]

Haven't has a chance to look at the model guidance this morning but there appears to be a good looking mid level circulation about 10 degrees farther east and a little farther north (13-14N, 18-20W). This area would seem to have a better moisture envelope, and the low level CU lines do appears to be flowing into this area, which would rob some of the convergence away from the lead system out in front of it, which is very near the much drier and stable Saharan air layer.

Will be headed into work to do some admin stuff and will check the high-res H85 vort fields of the globals and let you know what I see.

Tony,in other words,from the wave now emerging Africa (Thread at Talking Tropics)

yeah, but the lead system does not appear to be moving much. the MLC should over run it in the next 24 hrs and could get things going more.

Luis/Aric, yes, it appears there will be some interaction between these two areas. Sometimes during the TC season, a sort of monsoon trough type pattern develops over the east ATLC, and several waves contribute to the broad area of vortcity that consitutes the larger quasi-stationary trough. Eventually, some sort of consolidation can take place and a discrete tropical system emerges.

[underthwx]

Are there any models hinting at formatiom in the atlantic basin eventually coming together in the Carribean?

[Macrocane]

I'm surprised that nobody has mentioned it yet but now most of the global models are in agreeement about the development of a tropical cyclone in the MDR.
-GFS, FIM and UKMET show a tropical storm developing in about 4 or 5 days. FIM shows landfall in Florida at the end of the run.
-CMC is a little more bullish and develops the system in the nex 2 days.
-NOGAPS keeps it as a well defined low/TD.
-ECMWF is the less bullish and I think it has only a weak reflection.

Or maybe I'm wrong and they are developing another wave, what do you think?

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Convection has been increasing this afternoon.

[Jevo]

Convection has been increasing this afternoon.

Two things..

1. It looks as if the main moisture envelope may be pulling away from the rest of the ITCZ

2. That may be the first time in 8 years that I have seen a weather channel image linked

[Aric Dunn]

hmmm.... still no invest back up for it... seen way worse systems designated as invest..

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Maybe the recent model support and the increase in thunderstorm activity gets the NHC attention and they start mentioning it later tonight or tomorrow in their TWO

[SouthDadeFish]

Convection has been increasing this afternoon.

Two things..

1. It looks as if the main moisture envelope may be pulling away from the rest of the ITCZ

2. That may be the first time in 8 years that I have seen a weather channel image linked

LOL!!!! I was thinking the same. I'm thinking NHC is waiting for a little more persistence before activating it again. Although if it is the MLC feature behind ex 92L, would it be called 93L?

[cycloneye]

is the MLC feature behind ex 92L, would it be called 93L?

Is a different feature and at 18z surface analysis is now a surface trough,yes future 93L.

[HurricaneWarning92]

Interesting, basically ex 92L is gonna act like a shield or in other words, is going to sacrifice itself ingesting all that dry air to let future 93L (its 'big' lil friend) have the best or at least better atmospheric conditions to develop into something.

[underthwx]

Interesting, basically ex 92L is gonna act like a shield or in other words, is going to sacrifice itself ingesting all that dry air to let future 93L (its 'big' lil friend) have the best or at least better atmospheric conditions to develop into something.

Are there any indications of a surface circulation possible with this feature? Sure looks interesting on satelliite.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Finally


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE AUG 9 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE REMNANTS OF EMILY ARE LOCATED ABOUT 830 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF
BERMUDA...MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 25 MPH. THE
ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY MINIMAL...AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF REGENERATING INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...HAS FORMED ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[ronjon]

Most agressive run of NOGAPS at 18z. Takes 92l as a hurricane into the Bahamas.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_loop.cgi?&area=ngp_troplant&prod=z85&dtg=2011080918&set=Tropical