ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

[NDG]

Here we go.....Brownsville AFD:

LOOKING TOWARDS THE TROPICS NHC EXPECTS
A TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE OVER FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEX BY NEXT THURS EVENTUALLY PUSHING INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF
ON FRI. AT THIS TIME THIS FEATURE MAY BECOME MORE OF A CONCERN TO
THE TX COASTLINE NEXT WEEKEND. RESIDENTS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST OUTLOOKS AND DISCUSSIONS FROM NHC
CONCERNING THE PROGRESS THIS FEATURE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

I find that bullish for them to go out that far past 5-7 days with a potential tropical system.

[Sanibel]

I find that bullish for them to go out that far past 5-7 days with a potential tropical system.

Considering what it is doing right now, I think it is kind of bearish for them to only call it a "wave" at that point...

[Evil Jeremy]

If 90L wants to move north of Hispaniola, it needs to start moving a little more northward soon. Otherwise, right now it's on a collision course with the Lesser Antilles. It does lot a lot better today though, I think 30% Orange at 8pm is a given with the visible cyclonic turning. I wish recon was going out tomorrow, which was teased a couple days ago, because with the impact to the islands we should have data from inside the system IMO.

If this does make it far enough north, maybe even into Bahamas territory, how will it interact with the TUTT currently north of the Bahamas?

[Blown Away]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...COR TO ADD PRELIM POPS AND TEMPS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
308 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2011

.PREVIOUS EXTENDED DISCUSSION...EARLY NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE OVER THE
STATE SHOWS BREAKING DUE TO FALLING HGHTS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.
DEVELOPMENT OF A MEAN SFC TROUGH ALONG THE MID ATLC SEA BOARD WL ACT
TO TO INCREASE PCPN CHCS BY TUE AND CONTINUING THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF WLY STEERING LEVEL FLOW ALONG WITH LESS CONV
INHIBITION (COOLER TEMPS ALOFT AND MOISTURE). TROPICAL WV APCHG THE
BAHAMAS AROUND WED MAY HELP TO INCREASE MOISTURE LATE IN THE
WEEK...KEEPING AT LEAST SEASONAL PRECIP CHCS IN THE FCST.

Do these NWS offices just make their own call on tropical systems? Saying 90L will be approaching the Bahamas goes against almost all the models and the TAFB showing 90L moving as a wave through the Caribbean?? Brownsville NWS saying 90L going over Florida???

[NDG]

If 90L wants to move north of Hispaniola, it needs to start moving a little more northward soon. Otherwise, right now it's on a collision course with the Lesser Antilles. It does lot a lot better today though, I think 30% Orange at 8pm is a given with the visible cyclonic turning. I wish recon was going out tomorrow, which was teased a couple days ago, because with the impact to the islands we should have data from inside the system IMO.

If this does make it far enough north, maybe even into Bahamas territory, how will it interact with the TUTT currently north of the Bahamas?

12z euro upper level forecast calls for that TUTT like feature to not be ast strong as earlier runs. I will post a picture in a little while.

[NDG]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...COR TO ADD PRELIM POPS AND TEMPS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
308 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2011

.PREVIOUS EXTENDED DISCUSSION...EARLY NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE OVER THE
STATE SHOWS BREAKING DUE TO FALLING HGHTS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.
DEVELOPMENT OF A MEAN SFC TROUGH ALONG THE MID ATLC SEA BOARD WL ACT
TO TO INCREASE PCPN CHCS BY TUE AND CONTINUING THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF WLY STEERING LEVEL FLOW ALONG WITH LESS CONV
INHIBITION (COOLER TEMPS ALOFT AND MOISTURE). TROPICAL WV APCHG THE
BAHAMAS AROUND WED MAY HELP TO INCREASE MOISTURE LATE IN THE
WEEK...KEEPING AT LEAST SEASONAL PRECIP CHCS IN THE FCST.

Do these NWS offices just make their own call on tropical systems? Saying 90L will be approaching the Bahamas goes against almost all the models and the TAFB showing 90L moving as a wave through the Caribbean?? Brownsville NWS saying 90L going over Florida???

I wouldn't be laughing when the euro shows it moving through extreme S FL, the euro has been doing the best so far this seaon, IMO.

[cycloneye]

Is my opinion,but due to the proximity to the islands of the Lesser Antilles and with the organization improving ,a special Tropical Weather Outlook would be good to have.

[Ivanhater]

Convection continues to increase and expand. I think we have a developing TD.

[sunnyday]

I have seen this variation of "predictions" on many storms through the years, but I don't understand how this potential storm can be no more than a tropical wave after travelling so far across the ocean. Is that likely?

[petit_bois]

I have seen this variation of "predictions" on many storms through the years, but I don't understand how this potential storm can be no more than a tropical wave after travelling so far across the ocean. Is that likely?

It happens every year... multiple times per year

[HURAKAN]

Latest Visible

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

A resident from Barbados is reporting west winds...

[HURAKAN]

A resident from Barbados is reporting west winds...

Link: http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TBPB.html

Until 4 pm, winds have been from the ESE

[SouthDadeFish]

This station from WUnderground is reporting NNE winds, which is indicative of a developing surface circulation.

http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/fin ... y=barbados

[South Texas Storms]

18Z NAM shows this becoming a 1005mb storm just barely north of central Cuba in 84 hours.

[vbhoutex]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...COR TO ADD PRELIM POPS AND TEMPS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
308 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2011

.PREVIOUS EXTENDED DISCUSSION...EARLY NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE OVER THE
STATE SHOWS BREAKING DUE TO FALLING HGHTS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.
DEVELOPMENT OF A MEAN SFC TROUGH ALONG THE MID ATLC SEA BOARD WL ACT
TO TO INCREASE PCPN CHCS BY TUE AND CONTINUING THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF WLY STEERING LEVEL FLOW ALONG WITH LESS CONV
INHIBITION (COOLER TEMPS ALOFT AND MOISTURE). TROPICAL WV APCHG THE
BAHAMAS AROUND WED MAY HELP TO INCREASE MOISTURE LATE IN THE
WEEK...KEEPING AT LEAST SEASONAL PRECIP CHCS IN THE FCST.

Do these NWS offices just make their own call on tropical systems? Saying 90L will be approaching the Bahamas goes against almost all the models and the TAFB showing 90L moving as a wave through the Caribbean?? Brownsville NWS saying 90L going over Florida???

They have as much or more divergence of opinion than this site does it seems.

[HURAKAN]

This station from WUnderground is reporting NNE winds, which is indicative of a developing surface circulation.

http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/fin ... y=barbados

5 pm is in and yes, NNE

5 PM (21) Jul 22 77 (25) 75 (24) 29.91 (1013) NNE 13 rain showers

[Ivanhater]

Looking mighty fine



Vort continues to get stronger

[Ivanhater]

Intensity models love it

[MGC]

Future track will depend on where the LLCC forms if one forms. The models don't have a clue till then.

90L continues to become better organized. While I don't expect a TC to form soon it could become one after entering the Carb Sea......MGC