WPAC: MEARI [Falcon] - Remnants

[KWT]

ECM follows JMA almost perfectly on its 00z run and develops it into a fairly strong system in the end...wouldn't be surprised if this becomes a TY at all...

[dexterlabio]

And it looks like it is really getting its act together now... starting to look good...you know songda was the same way they said she was gong to be weak and she grew int oa very powerful storm..about the same spot too

Shear that time when Songda entered northern portion of Philippine Sea is very low along with very warm sst...if shear in the area around this system relaxes further, then it may stand the chance to strengthen all the way. Also if it can carry on its enormous circulation to consolidate a bit faster.

[KWT]

Yeah I don't see much that can stop it from strengthening other then maybe its large circulation will take a little while to develop a tighter core, once that does happen it'll probably strengthen pretty rapidly.

[Chacor]

Since this never was made clear, JMA has upgraded to TS Meari.

[oaba09]

Latest from JMA:


<Analyses at 22/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N14°05'(14.1°)
E128°20'(128.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 994hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more NE440km(240NM)
SW300km(160NM)

<Forecast for 23/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N18°05'(18.1°)
E125°20'(125.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area Wide 220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 24/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N22°35'(22.6°)
E123°25'(123.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area Wide 410km(220NM)

<Forecast for 25/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N27°35'(27.6°)
E123°00'(123.0°)
Direction and speed of movement N 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 460km(250NM)
Storm warning area Wide 600km(325NM)

[dexterlabio]

This storm listened to me. lol. The possible LLCC SW of the main center seems to be wrapping on the northeast quadrant of the circulation. I guess we may see that northern part of the system with decent amount of convection in the coming hours.


Since Chacor has said it, maybe someone could already change the title of the thread because JMA officially calls it a TS.

[oaba09]

WTPN32 PGTW 221500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 07W (MEARI) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221200Z --- NEAR 15.6N 126.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6N 126.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 17.3N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 19.1N 123.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 21.0N 122.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 23.3N 121.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 27.5N 120.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 31.1N 120.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 36.4N 123.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
221500Z POSITION NEAR 16.0N 125.9E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (MEARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 315 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
221200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 222100Z, 230300Z, 230900Z AND
231500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (HAIMA) WARNINGS (WTPN31
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

***********************************

WDPN32 PGTW 221500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W (MEARI)//
/WARNING NR 04//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY BROAD SYSTEM THAT
SPANS ALMOST THE ENTIRE PHILIPPINE SEA. DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE
CONSOLIDATING AROUND TWO POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS
(LLCC). THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON THE MORE DOMINANT LLCC WITH
FORMATIVE BANDS WRAPPING FROM THE NORTH. THE SECONDARY LLCC IS TO
THE SOUTHEAST WITH FORMATIVE BANDS WRAPPING FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS UNDER A RIDGE AXIS IN
AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. A TROPICAL
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH CELL TO THE EAST IS ENHANCING OUTFLOW.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 221135Z SSMI-S MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWING A DISTINCT NOTCH OVER THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. THE
SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED SOUTHEAST OF JAPAN.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TS 07W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORHTWESTWARD UP TO
TAU 48 THEN MOVE ON A MORE POLEWARD TRACK IN RESPONSE TO A MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE SYSTEM WILL
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY DUE TO THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS,
PEAKING AT TYPHOON INTENSITY BEFORE TAIWAN. IT WILL THEN CROSS THE
TAIWAN STRAIT AND MAKE LANDFALL OVER EASTERN TIP OF CHINA BY TAU 72.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TS MEARI WILL EXIT INTO THE YELLOW
SEA NEAR SHANGHAI, ACCELERATE, AND COMMENCE DISSIPATION OVER WATER.
THIS IS DUE TO INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL JET AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE. THE AVAILABLE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE FAN OUT TO ABOUT A 30-DEGREE SPREAD WITH ECMWF TO
THE LEFT OF AND NOGAPS AND GFDN TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE.
THIS TRACK FORECAST IS TO THE LEFT OF CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE RIGHT
OUTLIERS' UNLIKELY INCURSION INTO THE STEERING RIDGE.//
NNNN

[oaba09]

PAGASA track(quite similar w/ JTWC)


Tropical Storm "FALCON" has maintained its strength and continues to move West Northwestward and now threatens Extreme Northern Luzon.
Location of Center:
(as of 10:00 p.m.) 290 km East Northeast of Virac, Catanduanes

Coordinates: 14.7°N, 127.1°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 65 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 80 kph

Movement: West Northwest at 19 kph

Forecast Positions/Outlook: Thursday evening:
200 km East of Tuguegarao City
Friday evening:
120 km North of Basco, Batanes
Saturday evening:
540 km North Northwest of Basco, Batanes or
60 km North of Taiwan

Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal
PSWS #
Signal No. 1
(45-60 kph winds)
Isabela
Cagayan
Calayan Group of Is.
Babuyan Group of Is.
Batanes Group of Is.

[ManilaTC]

Big disparity in the location of center fixes:

Tokyo, Japan JMA 14.1 N 128.3 E
Hawaii, USA JTWC 15.6 N 126.3 E
Beijing, China CMA 13.9 N 128.6 E
Seoul, South Korea KMA 14.1 N 128.3 E
Manila, Philippines PAGASA 14.6 N 127.2 E

[StormingB81]

soooo...JMA's track shifted east and JTWC's track shifted west...interesting

[ManilaTC]

894
TPPN11 PGTW 221856

A. TROPICAL STORM 07W (MEARI)

B. 22/1732Z

C. 13.8N

D. 128.5E

E. FIVE/MET7

F. T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. A CONVECTIVE WRAP OF .30 ON THE
LOG10 SPIRAL FOR THE CONVECTION EAST OF THE LLCC PLUS A BANDING
FEATURE TO THE WEST YIELDS A DT OF 2.5. PT AGREES, WHILE MET IS
3.0. FT BASED ON DT AND PT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE

Will JTWC relocate and follow JMA's lead?

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 275
WTPQ21 RJTD 221800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1105 MEARI (1105)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 221800UTC 14.5N 127.7E POOR
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 240NM NORTHEAST 160NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 231800UTC 18.2N 125.2E 75NM 70%
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 241800UTC 23.0N 123.7E 140NM 70%
MOVE NNW 13KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 251800UTC 28.4N 123.7E 250NM 70%
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =
NNNN

[ManilaTC]

JTWC is taking some time to release its 1800z warning.

[ManilaTC]

HOT OFF THE PRESSES!
They did relocate!

WTPN32 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 07W (MEARI) WARNING NR 005 RELOCATED
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 14.8N 128.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8N 128.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 16.4N 126.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 18.6N 125.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 20.8N 124.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 23.4N 123.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 28.0N 123.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 34.9N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 43.3N 130.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 15.2N 127.7E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (MEARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 405 NM EAST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM CENTER HAS BEEN RELOCATED TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS POSITION. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED AND
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES AN
EXPANSIVE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH DISTINCT EMBEDDED VORTICES AND
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION ON THE EASTERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERIES. THESE
SMALLER VORTICES ARE ROTATING ABOUT A CENTROID REPRESENTED BY THE
CURRENT BEST TRACK POSITION, WHICH IS ALSO APPROXIMATED IN RECENT
PGTW AND RJTD SATELLITE FIXES AND A 221735Z AMSU IMAGE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH A 2.5 DVORAK T-
NUMBER ESTIMATE FROM PGTW AND A 221240Z ASCAT PASS. TS 07W IS
TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO ROUND THE AXIS OF THIS STEERING RIDGE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE CYCLONE WILL
INTERACT WITH THE TROUGH AFTER TAU 72, AND IS NOW EXPECTED TO
UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SINCE THE TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN
SHIFTED TO THE EAST AND THE CYCLONE WILL THUS MAINTAIN INTENSITY
ABOVE 25 KNOTS. THIS EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK FORECAST IS
PRIMARILY DUE TO ADJUSTMENT OF THE ANALYSIS POSITION AND NOT A SHIFT
IN THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE. TS 06W IS EXPECTED TO REACH TYPHOON
INTENSITY BY TAU 36 AS PASSAGE OVER WARM WATER AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION, WHILE FURTHER CONSOLIDATION OF THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION INHIBITS RAPID DEVELOPMENT. THE CURRENT TRACK
FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE, INCLUDING THE LATEST ECMWF, JGSM, UKMET, AND GFS
RUNS. THE NOGAPS AND GFDN MODELS DEPICT A TRACK A BIT FARTHER TO THE
EAST, A SCENARIO DEEMED UNLIKELY GIVEN THE OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE AND
CURRENT SYNOPTIC REASONING. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
221800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230300Z, 230900Z, 231500Z AND
232100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (HAIMA) WARNINGS (WTPN31
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

[oaba09]

center has been relocated to SE of the original:

[oaba09]

PAGASA track:


Severe Weather Bulletin Number FIVE
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Tropical Storm "FALCON" {MEARI}
Issued at 5:00 a.m., Thursday, 23 June 2011 Tropical Storm "FALCON" has maintained its course as it continues to threaten Extreme Northern Luzon.
Location of Center:
(as of 4:00 a.m.) 250 km Northeast of Virac, Catanduanes

Coordinates: 15.1°N, 126.3°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 65 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 80 kph

Movement: West Northwest at 19 kph

Forecast Positions/Outlook: Friday morning:
150 km East Northeast of Tuguegarao City
Saturday morning:
170 km North Northwest of Basco, Batanes
Sunday morning:
600 km North of Basco, Batanes or
130 km North of Taiwan



Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal
Signal No. 1
(45-60 kph winds)
Albay
Catanduanes
Camarines Norte
Camarines Sur
Isabela
Cagayan
Calayan Group of Is.
Babuyan Group of Is.
Batanes Group of Is.

[KWT]

Good to see the JWTC have moved thier track eastwards at long last. Very interesting looking system thats for sure and the 12z ECM is stronger once again than its previous runs. Think this will probably be a 2/3 once all done.

[ManilaTC]

Is MEARI a CONJOINED twin?

[ManilaTC]

This is not much but here is my forecast track for Meari taken over the 2100z warnings.

LATEST UPDATE 20 Z 22-Jun 14.7 127.6
12 hr Forecast 08 Z 22-Jun 16.4 126.7
24 hr Forecast 20 Z 23-Jun 18.6 124.7
36 hr Forecast 08 Z 23-Jun 20.9 123.8
48 hr Forecast 20 Z 24-Jun 23.2 123.0
72 hr Forecast 20 Z 25-Jun 28.2 122.8
96 hr Forecast 20 Z 26-Jun 34.0 124.6
120 hr Forecast 20 Z 27-Jun 40.6 128.5

[oaba09]

Wow even JTWC had difficulties in locating the center LOL...