ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Luis, looks like some feeder bands may be reaching you before too long


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn-l.jpg

Yep,is only the start of a long rainy and windy period that may get longer depending on the foward speed.

[bamajammer4eva]

Even though the models are enthusiastic about this and this idea may somewhat be a disappointing idea to some in Florida who needs the rain but don't forget Debbie 2000 which had officials in the Keys go as far as evacuate tourists/nonresidents. Irene has the potential to eat a lot of bumpy land no matter what the models say.

Here was a quote as well as the forecast winds/plots from the discussion at 5am Aug 23rd 2000 the 11AM that day was actually similar as well.

AN EXTREME OUTLIER IS THE GFDL...WHICH HAS A 926 MB
PRESSURE AS DEBBY REACHES THE FLORIDA KEYS. THIS LOOKS SUSPECT...AS
IT IS ALREADY STRONGER THAN REALITY AND A LOT OF DEEPENING OCCURS AS
THE MODEL STORM MOVES ALONG THE COASTS OF HISPANIOLA AND CUBA.
NEVERTHELESS...DEBBY COULD BE A DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT
APPROACHES SOUTH FLORIDA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/0900Z 19.7N 68.7W 65 KTS
12HR VT 23/1800Z 20.3N 70.7W 65 KTS
24HR VT 24/0600Z 21.0N 72.9W 65 KTS
36HR VT 24/1800Z 22.0N 75.1W 75 KTS
48HR VT 25/0600Z 23.0N 77.0W 80 KTS
72HR VT 26/0600Z 25.5N 80.0W 90 KTS

Here was a quote from the discussion at 11am Aug 24th 2000

THIS MORNING...A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS UNABLE TO FIND A CLOSED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION SOUTH OF EASTERN CUBA. DEBBY IS DOWNGRADED TO
A TROUGH OR OPEN WAVE.

[LaBreeze]

Luis, looks like some feeder bands may be reaching you before too long


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn-l.jpg

Yep,is only the start of a long rainy and windy period that may get longer depending on the foward speed.

Stay safe cycloneye. Thanks for updates.

[Blown Away]

Luis, looks like some feeder bands may be reaching you before too long
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn-l.jpg

Yep,is only the start of a long rainy and windy period that may get longer depending on the foward speed.

On IR looks like Irene gaining latitude, IMO Hurricane Watch may be needed for PR.

[Blown Away]

bamajammer4eva,
NHC/models have significantly improved over past 11 years. lol

[Aric Dunn]

A ship just north of the very likely new LLC, and the wind report fits.


st reported at 2011-Aug-21 04:00 UTC. Time now 2011-Aug-21 05:02 UTC.
Position N 17°54' W 059°24'.

Wind from 100 at 32 knots

Barometer 1011.1 mb
Air temperature 25.9 ° C
Dewpoint 23.9 ° C
Water temperature 29.2 ° C

[Aric Dunn]

Luis, looks like some feeder bands may be reaching you before too long
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn-l.jpg

Yep,is only the start of a long rainy and windy period that may get longer depending on the foward speed.

On IR looks like Irene gaining latitude, IMO Hurricane Watch may be needed for PR.

watch the radar..


but watches might go up at 2am.

[Blown Away]

A ship just north of the very likely new LLC, and the wind report fits.


st reported at 2011-Aug-21 04:00 UTC. Time now 2011-Aug-21 05:02 UTC.
Position N 17°54' W 059°24'.

Wind from 100 at 32 knots

Barometer 1011.1 mb
Air temperature 25.9 ° C
Dewpoint 23.9 ° C
Water temperature 29.2 ° C

Aric, you are selling the relocated LLC hard!

[RL3AO]

Looks pretty good despite being lopsided

[Tampa_God]

The storm looks like it might take a trip more north than where the NHC has it going. I wouldn't be surprised, if a new LLC has developed, if Irene goes straight over Hispaniola instead of skimming the southern end of the island.

[Aric Dunn]

A ship just north of the very likely new LLC, and the wind report fits.


st reported at 2011-Aug-21 04:00 UTC. Time now 2011-Aug-21 05:02 UTC.
Position N 17°54' W 059°24'.

Wind from 100 at 32 knots

Barometer 1011.1 mb
Air temperature 25.9 ° C
Dewpoint 23.9 ° C
Water temperature 29.2 ° C

Aric, you are selling the relocated LLC hard!

here it is... slight ese wind

[artist]

Looks pretty good despite being lopsided

[MWatkins]

And Debby did not have the large envelope that this one does. It never really came together and that year, SSTs weren't at record levels like this year and there were mid-level shear problems then that are not forecast to be present here.

Same part of the basin, same time of year and same general track. But, 2 completely different synoptic conditions. Like any two seasons or storms, they can't be compared any more than snowflakes can.

MW

[bamajammer4eva]

bamajammer4eva,
NHC/models have significantly improved over past 11 years. lol

Somewhat true since they now have the GFS instead of the MRF/AVN as well as I think the WRF and HWRF are new. However other than that, it still the same ole models GFDL, BAMs, Euro, Canadian, UKMET etc.

[jinftl]

NHC alluded to that in fact in 11pm Discussion (sorry if old news)

A HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PUERTO RICO TOMORROW IF
THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE TRACK FORECAST.


If the current track persists, I can see them going with a hurricane watch by morning for PR

Luis, looks like some feeder bands may be reaching you before too long
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn-l.jpg

Yep,is only the start of a long rainy and windy period that may get longer depending on the foward speed.

On IR looks like Irene gaining latitude, IMO Hurricane Watch may be needed for PR.

[artist]

And Debby did not have the large envelope that this one does. It never really came together and that year, SSTs weren't at record levels like this year and there were mid-level shear problems then that are not forecast to be present here.

Same part of the basin, same time of year and same general track. But, 2 completely different synoptic conditions. Like any two seasons or storms, they can't be compared any more than snowflakes can.

MW

what is your gut telling you Mike? Do you think we will see much more change in the models, or is it just a wait and see...

[Sanibel]

Curvature's improving in banding formation.


Should pass between Guadeloupe and Dominica tonight.

[Adoquín]

In case anyone may ask about the next recon,it will depart from St Croix at 7:00 AM EDT.

Code: Select all

FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72
       A. 21/1200Z,1800Z
       B. AFXXX 0209A CYCLONE
       C. 21/1100Z
       D. 15.8N 61.8W
       E. 21/1130Z TO 21/1800Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT



hehe by that time and the present track.. maybe they can use less fuel and take off into the wind lol... cause it looks like its going to be farther north than forecasted

"He who liveth by "the guidance" dies by the guidance".

There is nothing bad with guidance, it is great that we have technology to get it and professionals to advise us on it but this science is not perfect yet ( though really good as a general proposition) is really useful to the extent it saves lives and mitigates damage I would not not follow guidance or models as faith but use them as tools (very important ones) in addition to experience, obervation and judgment, as well as the advice of pros. However, for those of us in the front lines of a fairly rapidly organizing storm (something that just happened this evening) guidance until it can be guaranteed to be perfect on a short time basis cannot substitute for the combo. I wish Aric is wrong, even if I think he is right, and I am thankful to those who have been vigilant of this possibility.

[fci]

Even though the models are enthusiastic about this and this idea may somewhat be a disappointing idea to some in Florida who needs the rain but don't forget Debbie 2000 which had officials in the Keys go as far as evacuate tourists/nonresidents. Irene has the potential to eat a lot of bumpy land no matter what the models say.

Here was a quote as well as the forecast winds/plots from the discussion at 5am Aug 23rd 2000 the 11AM that day was actually similar as well.

AN EXTREME OUTLIER IS THE GFDL...WHICH HAS A 926 MB
PRESSURE AS DEBBY REACHES THE FLORIDA KEYS. THIS LOOKS SUSPECT...AS
IT IS ALREADY STRONGER THAN REALITY AND A LOT OF DEEPENING OCCURS AS
THE MODEL STORM MOVES ALONG THE COASTS OF HISPANIOLA AND CUBA.
NEVERTHELESS...DEBBY COULD BE A DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT
APPROACHES SOUTH FLORIDA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/0900Z 19.7N 68.7W 65 KTS
12HR VT 23/1800Z 20.3N 70.7W 65 KTS
24HR VT 24/0600Z 21.0N 72.9W 65 KTS
36HR VT 24/1800Z 22.0N 75.1W 75 KTS
48HR VT 25/0600Z 23.0N 77.0W 80 KTS
72HR VT 26/0600Z 25.5N 80.0W 90 KTS

Here was a quote from the discussion at 11am Aug 24th 2000

THIS MORNING...A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS UNABLE TO FIND A CLOSED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION SOUTH OF EASTERN CUBA. DEBBY IS DOWNGRADED TO
A TROUGH OR OPEN WAVE.

Good research.
I am not minimizing the potential threat but have a lot of recollections of Eastern Cuba beating the snot out of storms. You mentioned Debby and I remember Ernesto that was progged to potentially be a 2/3 when it got to SE FL

Here is a quote from the discussion at 5am Aug 26th 2006
THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS QUITE COMPLICATED DUE TO POSSIBLE
LAND INTERACTIONS WITH CUBA. IF ERNESTO EMERGES SOONER AND A LITTLE
FARTHER NORTH OFF THE COAST OF CUBA...THEN THE CYCLONE WILL HAVE
MORE TIME TO STRENGTHEN OVER VERY WARM SSTS OF 86-88F AND IN A VERY
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW REGIME. THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS
FORECASTING NEAR-ZERO VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...JUST AS ERNESTO IS
APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA IN 48 HOURS. THESE
CONDITIONS WOULD FAVOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ERNESTO BECOMING A
CATEGORY 2 OR EVEN A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL
ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST.


EDIT: I saw Mike's comment about 2 snowflakes being different and I am not at all saying Irene has the same synpotics as Ernesto did or Debby.
I am just pointing out that we have seen what Eastern Cuba and Haiti (Hispanola) can do to a storm and that the strength of the storm post-Cuba can be incredibly sapped.
David went into Hispanola as a killer, Cat 4 or 5 I believe and even though it hit West Palm as a weak Cat 1, the forecast was scary for what would be coming into South Florida and it was a whole lot weaker than expected.

Nonetheless, this is a scary situation given the consensus and consistency of the models..

[blp]

Here is a quote from the discussion at 5am Aug 26th 2006
THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS QUITE COMPLICATED DUE TO POSSIBLE
LAND INTERACTIONS WITH CUBA. IF ERNESTO EMERGES SOONER AND A LITTLE
FARTHER NORTH OFF THE COAST OF CUBA...THEN THE CYCLONE WILL HAVE
MORE TIME TO STRENGTHEN OVER VERY WARM SSTS OF 86-88F AND IN A VERY
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW REGIME. THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS
FORECASTING NEAR-ZERO VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...JUST AS ERNESTO IS
APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA IN 48 HOURS. THESE
CONDITIONS WOULD FAVOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ERNESTO BECOMING A
CATEGORY 2 OR EVEN A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL
ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST.

We in s.fla have been down that road before. I for one am not jumping on the major hurricane bandwagon just yet with all that land interaction. I am thinking strong CAT1.