ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[SouthDadeFish]

Aric, what's going on there where I put the arrow?

Umm... yeah I was wondering the same:

[HURAKAN]

lighter convection ... that's no center or eye ... relax!

[Aric Dunn]

Aric, what's going on there where I put the arrow?

[img]http://i189.photobucket.com/albums/z174/philnyc_2007/satavn2011-08210315anno.jpg[/mg]

well here (black circle) is the MLC/LLC that is becoming more defined.

[Aric Dunn]

looks like it will pass just north of Guadalupe.

[MWatkins]

Center probably still on the southwest side of that vigorous mid level circulation, envelope seems to be a little elongated from SW to NE. However, once the ridge weakens the system should consolidate and deepen pretty quickly from there. Overall, the structure of this system continues to be impressive.

MW

[ozonepete]

lighter convection ... that's no center or eye ... relax!

Wasn't thinking eye. Was wondering about dry air.

[Aric Dunn]

Center probably still on the southwest side of that vigorous mid level circulation, envelope seems to be a little elongated from SW to NE. However, once the ridge weakens the system should consolidate and deepen pretty quickly from there. Overall, the structure of this system continues to be impressive.

MW

ok fine.. I have to say.. but its getting a bit to close to the radar site to be all in the mid levels.

oh and hey mike... been a long time

[HurricaneQueen]

We were scheduled to arrived in St. Maarten this afternoon for our annual 2 week vacation. For health reasons, I was unable to make the trip and I think I am very glad, as we would have spent our first evening holed up in our condo! Who knows what tomorrow will bring.

That being said, I am thinking about all of you in the islands and wish you all the best of luck with Irene. This storm has me quite concerned although I realize we personally are still about 140 hours away from potential landfall if she arrives in SW FL. She has the potential to wreck much havoc all along her path. Be safe everyone and don't take any unnecessary chances.

Lynn

P.S. Mike, it so great to see you posting here again. Have missed you the last couple of years. Hope all is well.

[chris_fit]

In case you haven't read the model's thread.... Significant Cane, landfall in SFL, latest run.

[MWatkins]

Center probably still on the southwest side of that vigorous mid level circulation, envelope seems to be a little elongated from SW to NE. However, once the ridge weakens the system should consolidate and deepen pretty quickly from there. Overall, the structure of this system continues to be impressive.

MW

ok fine.. I have to say.. but its getting a bit to close to the radar site to be all in the mid levels.

oh and hey mike... been a long time

Yes it has Aric, been way too long. And yeah, it is looking good on radar.

Also, NOT liking the GFS run. Nothing specific with the model run, just not a fan of the solution as that would be about the worst possible angle to hit SFL with....

MW

[Battlebrick]

[cycloneye]

In case anyone may ask about the next recon,it will depart from St Croix at 7:00 AM EDT.

Code: Select all

FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72
       A. 21/1200Z,1800Z
       B. AFXXX 0209A CYCLONE
       C. 21/1100Z
       D. 15.8N 61.8W
       E. 21/1130Z TO 21/1800Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT



[Aric Dunn]

In case anyone may ask about the next recon,it will depart from St Croix at 7:00 AM EDT.

Code: Select all

FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72
       A. 21/1200Z,1800Z
       B. AFXXX 0209A CYCLONE
       C. 21/1100Z
       D. 15.8N 61.8W
       E. 21/1130Z TO 21/1800Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT



hehe by that time and the present track.. maybe they can use less fuel and take off into the wind lol... cause it looks like its going to be farther north than forecasted

[Aric Dunn]

Sorry but its only 50 to 75 miles from the radar site not all in the mid levels ...... I think it speaks for itself at this point..

http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?116

[Tampa_God]

Sorry but its only 50 to 75 miles from the radar site not all in the mid levels ...... I think it speaks for itself at this point..

http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?116

Center relocation, NW direction, or past my bedtime with that radar?

[Normandy]

Sorry but its only 50 to 75 miles from the radar site not all in the mid levels ...... I think it speaks for itself at this point..

http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?116

The IR speaks for itself too, the convection is really starting to spin

[SouthFLTropics]

Based on current model trends, any of you that live on the Florida peninsula may want to use Sunday to review your supplies and plans and make sure that you have everything you need in order to ride out the storm. I personally went and restocked up on water and restocked my battery supply today. Come Late Monday PM or Tuesday AM if the model trends continue the media will be all over this and the stores will become a zoo. Don't get caught in all that madness!

SFT

[Ivanhater]

For those interested..her is Derek Ortt's take on it

http://www.pnj.com/apps/pbcs.dll/sectio ... ersonaDest

[ConvergenceZone]

Luis, looks like some feeder bands may be reaching you before too long


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn-l.jpg

[Blown Away]

For those interested..her is Derek Ortt's take on it

http://www.pnj.com/apps/pbcs.dll/sectio ... ersonaDest

I'm glad he didn't do a video update, he needs work on his on air skills. j/k, very sharp guy!!