ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

[fci]

-- 7 PM Update, Tuesday, July 26 --


Disturbed Weather centered near Yucatan Channel at:


-- 21.3° North
-- 84.3° West


Has slown down to a movement of West-Northwest at 12 mph, compass directional heading of 300°.


-- Inner Pressure of 1009 mb
-- Satellite T-number of 1.0 acquired = 25 kt / 29 mph
-- Ascribed winds 25 kts.


In addition to these above attributes,


-- A ship report, namely your Carnival Inspiration, reported a South-Southwest wind of 32 kts (37 mph) at 7 PM this Tuesday evening. One hour later, it reported a South-Southeast wind of 24 kts (28 mph), at 8 PM this Tuesday evening. Wave heights had escalated to 11 ft. This ship's position was near 20.7° & 83.6°


Scatterometry techniques (ASCAT) will prove useless, as there's too much rain splash convection near the center, contaminating remote sensing techniques used in modern day analyses. It's going to take a USAF Reserve Unit Aircraft to report ground truth as to a circulation. It has the convection; it has the winds; I'd desire a lower pressure than just 1009 mb, (which isn't really that low), but this is HOW surface pressures can fall, when convection develops overhead, affording it to deepen. What's left for question is confirmation of a surface circulation. Until your NHC can get an aicraft in there, I expect, they'll continue being conservative in their whole approach to this.


For those who missed my EARLIER, Tuesday evening, writing from July 26, you can find it right here at:


http://cvamagic.tripod.com/






-- cyclogenesis

Thanks for sharing your thoughts and the link to your site.
Please continue to post here as we love seeing Pro Mets provide "reality" to us!!!

[ROCK]

Looks as if the convection blob is trying to increase in size once again.

tell tale sign that its finally got a LLC IMO....but I had thought it had one 6 hrs ago also....Need recon to confirm

[Stormcenter]

I cannot open the link.
Where exactly does NOGAPS show 90L making landfall?

0z NOGAPS ,,,,,deepens it as it approaches the coast....

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[Nikki]

I cannot open the link.
Where exactly does NOGAPS show 90L making landfall?

0z NOGAPS ,,,,,deepens it as it approaches the coast....

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

Galveston

[ROCK]

I cannot open the link.
Where exactly does NOGAPS show 90L making landfall?

0z NOGAPS ,,,,,deepens it as it approaches the coast....

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

try this one....Galveston...deepens it on approach

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[Stormcenter]

Thanks ROCK!

I cannot open the link.
Where exactly does NOGAPS show 90L making landfall?

0z NOGAPS ,,,,,deepens it as it approaches the coast....

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

try this one....Galveston...deepens it on approach

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[dwsqos2]

I'm sorry, but I think this is still a mess. It was interesting this morning when I saw decent inflow, but now blah. Most of the did eventually develop a very sharp surface trough or weak surface low, so they haven't been that bad. I am going to play devil's advocate and say rather blindly that, based on the globals, no classification as a tropical cyclone will ever occur.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[coreyl]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE WESTERN TIP OF
CUBA HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT A CIRCULATION COULD BE FORMING
ABOUT 125 MILES EAST OF CANCUN MEXICO. IF THESE TRENDS CONTINUE...
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD DEVELOP LATER TODAY. INTERESTS IN THE
NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BERG

[Nikki]

Up to 70%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE WESTERN TIP OF
CUBA HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT A CIRCULATION COULD BE FORMING
ABOUT 125 MILES EAST OF CANCUN MEXICO. IF THESE TRENDS CONTINUE...
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD DEVELOP LATER TODAY. INTERESTS IN THE
NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BERG

[TwisterFanatic]

70% in the new outlook.


Edit: Beaten to it..

[Brent]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE WESTERN TIP OF
CUBA HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT A CIRCULATION COULD BE FORMING
ABOUT 125 MILES EAST OF CANCUN MEXICO. IF THESE TRENDS CONTINUE...
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD DEVELOP LATER TODAY. INTERESTS IN THE
NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[ROCK]

I'm sorry, but I think this is still a mess. It was interesting this morning when I saw decent inflow, but now blah. Most of the did eventually develop a very sharp surface trough or weak surface low, so they haven't been that bad. I am going to play devil's advocate and say rather blindly that, based on the globals, no classification as a tropical cyclone will ever occur.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

good luck with that.....

[TwisterFanatic]

I'm sorry, but I think this is still a mess. It was interesting this morning when I saw decent inflow, but now blah. Most of the did eventually develop a very sharp surface trough or weak surface low, so they haven't been that bad. I am going to play devil's advocate and say rather blindly that, based on the globals, no classification as a tropical cyclone will ever occur.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

NHC obviously doesn't agree with you, as well as all the Pro-Mets on here.

[ROCK]

good job NHC.....finally you have seen the light!!!

[dwsqos2]

There have been failed high chance disturbances before; I am not concerned at all.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[TwisterFanatic]

latest

[Texashawk]

I'm sorry, but I think this is still a mess. It was interesting this morning when I saw decent inflow, but now blah. Most of the did eventually develop a very sharp surface trough or weak surface low, so they haven't been that bad. I am going to play devil's advocate and say rather blindly that, based on the globals, no classification as a tropical cyclone will ever occur.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Are we even talking about the same system? I'm not trying to be rude, but... there's a pronounced spin, the cloud tops are firing very cold and the beginnings of a CDO is starting to form. Plus, the convection is expanding and the winds are closing off. If this is a mess, then I'd hate to see a real storm!

[TwisterFanatic]

There have been failed high chance disturbances before; I am not concerned at all.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Of course, everyone is entitled to their opinion, but I'll side with the NHC and the certified meteorologist's.

['CaneFreak]

In his defense, he's waiting to see an eye show up on satellite

I'm sorry, but I think this is still a mess. It was interesting this morning when I saw decent inflow, but now blah. Most of the did eventually develop a very sharp surface trough or weak surface low, so they haven't been that bad. I am going to play devil's advocate and say rather blindly that, based on the globals, no classification as a tropical cyclone will ever occur.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Are we even talking about the same system? I'm not trying to be rude, but... there's a pronounced spin, the cloud tops are firing very cold and the beginnings of a CDO is starting to form. Plus, the convection is expanding and the winds are closing off. If this is a mess, then I'd hate to see a real storm!

[ROCK]

I'm sorry, but I think this is still a mess. It was interesting this morning when I saw decent inflow, but now blah. Most of the did eventually develop a very sharp surface trough or weak surface low, so they haven't been that bad. I am going to play devil's advocate and say rather blindly that, based on the globals, no classification as a tropical cyclone will ever occur.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Are we even talking about the same system? I'm not trying to be rude, but... there's a pronounced spin, the cloud tops are firing very cold and the beginnings of a CDO is starting to form. Plus, the convection is expanding and the winds are closing off. If this is a mess, then I'd hate to see a real storm!

bro, hes been doing this same show since I became a member back in 04.....just let it go....