ATL: IRENE - Models

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1501 Postby maxintensity » Sat Aug 20, 2011 1:20 pm

Image

Euro stronger ridging through 96 hours than GFS had. Looks like it might go further west this run
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#1502 Postby WeatherEmperor » Sat Aug 20, 2011 1:21 pm

Guys,

Feel free to post the Euro. I think it should be running by now....
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Re: Re:

#1503 Postby Javlin » Sat Aug 20, 2011 1:21 pm

SFLcane wrote:
Ivanhater wrote:
lonelymike wrote:Doesn't seem like the CMC has done real well with this system


Huh..looks like 97L has followed the Canadian and other models exactly so far...tropical wave approaching the Islands.


Models in general don't show much development till this passes the islands. The cmc looks like it's coming around and might shift future north and east on next run.


Not as long as the system has a shallow reflection even the NHC just said no LLC as of yet is apparent.We are wave watching not hurricane watching until it makes a moderate TS on W.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1504 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Sat Aug 20, 2011 1:22 pm

Hey Michael, looks like we have a growing concensus that whatever 97L becomes COULD be a major problem for one of us. Well me either way since next weekend we are going to be in Cape San Blas for the week :grr: So I am screwed either way. It could hit here at home or hit the panhandle where you and I will be. As I said last night I suspected they would shift east for a day or two, but then ultimately shift back west putting some part of the northern gulf coast at risk. We all know the models escpecially the GFS have a tendancy to try and turn storms north to quickly into a strong trough therefore breaking down a ridge to soon. Sure this will probably feel the weakness left behind to some extent but as the CMC and most ensembles show it could very well get trapped under the rebuilding ridge and pushed further west. Everyone along the gulf coast is at play here it seems from the TX/LA border to the FL big bend area.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1505 Postby maxintensity » Sat Aug 20, 2011 1:24 pm

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#1506 Postby KWT » Sat Aug 20, 2011 1:25 pm

May track right up the spine of Cuba again on this run, but it does pull itself together quite nicely before then...

Interesting run so far, actually more agressive with strengthening then the GFS thus far.

PS, 120hrs further north, north of Cuba...that track WOULD produce a hurricane I think...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1507 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Sat Aug 20, 2011 1:27 pm

:uarrow: Ridging definately looks stronger here. Very likely this could end up being trapped in the gulf and blowing up moving very slowly.
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#1508 Postby Vortex » Sat Aug 20, 2011 1:28 pm

12Z ECM rolling

H+48 just sw of PR


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP048.gif
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1509 Postby AtlanticWind » Sat Aug 20, 2011 1:28 pm

Looks like another SFL hit
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#1510 Postby KWT » Sat Aug 20, 2011 1:28 pm

vortex, we are upto 120hrs I think!

A much more worrying track already from the ECM IMO...
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Re:

#1511 Postby ROCK » Sat Aug 20, 2011 1:29 pm

Vortex wrote:12Z ECM rolling

H+48 just sw of PR


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP048.gif



we are already out to 120hr..... :lol:
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#1512 Postby Vortex » Sat Aug 20, 2011 1:29 pm

H+72 over Hispanolia


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP072.gif
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1513 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Aug 20, 2011 1:29 pm

Euro runs up the east coast of Florida this run
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#1514 Postby Vortex » Sat Aug 20, 2011 1:30 pm

H+96 strengthening near eastern Cuba


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP096.gif
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1515 Postby ROCK » Sat Aug 20, 2011 1:30 pm

compared to yesterdays 12Z it doesnt get tangled up with Hispa as much...more over Cuba
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#1516 Postby BigB0882 » Sat Aug 20, 2011 1:30 pm

The stronger ridging is worrying me, even if they continue to show SFL hits. Sounds like they may be sniffing out something and it may affect track in a big way in future model runs.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1517 Postby ROCK » Sat Aug 20, 2011 1:30 pm

Ivanhater wrote:Euro runs up the east coast of Florida this run


cheater... :lol:
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#1518 Postby Vortex » Sat Aug 20, 2011 1:31 pm

H+120 blowing up just SE of Miami


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP120.gif
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1519 Postby maxintensity » Sat Aug 20, 2011 1:31 pm

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#1520 Postby Vortex » Sat Aug 20, 2011 1:32 pm

still loading..but looks very nasty for SFL...
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