ATL : HARVEY - Tropical Depression - Discussion

[ozonepete]

I have kinfolks in Honduras. They live in San Pedro Sula and Tala. I will keep you updated as much as I can.

thanks. would love to hear what they have to say. And good luck to them.

[ozonepete]

Belize radar.... should be interesting late tonight and tomorrow

http://www.hydromet.gov.bz/250-km-radar-loop

Thanks, Aric.

[Tireman4]

I have kinfolks in Honduras. They live in San Pedro Sula and Tala. I will keep you updated as much as I can.

thanks. would love to hear what they have to say. And good luck to them.

Yep. They still talk of Mitch. Lots of ruined lives and years caused by that storm.

[Aric Dunn]

The latest trends with the convective pattern point towards the start of a possible inner core trying to develop. being that its only inhibitor is land and even that will lesson as it get farther west... we could see a very quick ramp up in intensity prior to landfall.

[Aric Dunn]

report from the islands east of roatan off the coast.. the center should pass right over the islands in about 6 hours or so

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MHNO.html

Guanaja island

[JtSmarts]

When does recon head back out? I'm thinking they'll find at least a 45 kt storm maybe even 50.

[ozonepete]

report from the islands east of roatan off the coast.. the center should pass right over the islands in about 6 hours or so

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MHNO.html

Guanaja island

try this one MHRO for Roatan. It's got pressure readings as well:

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MHRO.html

[ozonepete]

When does recon head back out? I'm thinking they'll find at least a 45 kt storm maybe even 50.

Pretty soon. I think it's at 4:30PM.

[Aric Dunn]

Some overshooting tops are firing now.. presentation improving rapidly.. likely to find a stronger TS by the time recon gets there.

[ozonepete]

I see it. Totally agree.

[Extratropical94]

Whoa, raw T-# of 4.0
This storm might become stronger than the NHC suggested

Code: Select all

                 UW - CIMSS                     
              ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE       
                  ADT-Version 8.1.3               
         Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm       

             ----- Current Analysis -----
     Date :  19 AUG 2011    Time :   184500 UTC
      Lat :   16:11:19 N     Lon :   84:13:42 W

     
                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                3.3 / 996.8mb/ 51.0kt

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#
                3.3     3.5     4.0

 Center Temp : -69.7C    Cloud Region Temp : -65.3C

 Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

 Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

 Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC     
 Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC 

 Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
                   Weakening Flag : OFF   
           Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF   

 C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
  - Average 34 knot radii :   35km
  - Environmental MSLP    : 1011mb

 Satellite Viewing Angle : 21.7 degrees

****************************************************


[Aric Dunn]

yeah not surprised. the presentation is becoming quite good and its likely up to 50mph atm. there are clear banding wrapping around the center now with new deep convection firing.

[cycloneye]

Plane departing from Biloxi towards Harvey.

URNT15 KNHC 192010
AF308 0408A HARVEY HDOB 01 20110819
200030 3025N 08855W 0118 ///// //// //// +284 360000 000 /// /// 25
200100 3025N 08855W 0118 ///// //// //// +283 360000 000 /// /// 25
200130 3025N 08855W 0118 ///// //// //// +281 360000 000 /// /// 25
200200 3025N 08855W 0117 ///// //// //// +281 360000 000 /// /// 25
200230 3025N 08855W 0118 ///// //// //// +280 360000 000 /// /// 25
200300 3025N 08855W 0117 ///// //// //// +279 360000 000 /// /// 25
200330 3025N 08855W 0118 ///// //// //// +278 360000 000 /// /// 25
200400 3025N 08855W 0118 ///// //// //// +278 360000 000 /// /// 25
200430 3025N 08855W 0117 ///// //// //// +276 360000 000 /// /// 25
200500 3025N 08855W 0120 ///// //// //// +272 360000 000 /// /// 25
200530 3025N 08855W 0117 ///// 0114 +343 +270 202001 004 /// /// 23
200600 3025N 08855W 0116 ///// 0104 +306 +264 196008 011 /// /// 23
200630 3024N 08856W 9935 00146 0100 +286 +261 206006 006 /// /// 03
200700 3023N 08857W 9787 00287 0105 +276 +252 220005 005 /// /// 03
200730 3021N 08858W 9778 00296 0110 +275 +246 228003 004 /// /// 03
200800 3020N 08859W 9783 00298 0112 +274 +242 248002 003 /// /// 03
200830 3018N 08901W 9539 00513 0108 +258 +242 277003 003 /// /// 03
200900 3017N 08902W 9289 00754 0116 +238 +236 333001 001 /// /// 03
200930 3015N 08903W 9242 00803 0123 +231 +228 121001 001 /// /// 03
201000 3014N 08904W 9266 00785 0126 +232 +220 038002 002 /// /// 03
$$

[cycloneye]

Plane is flying towards Harvey. Will they find a stronger storm?

[CrazyC83]

Plane is flying towards Harvey. Will they find a stronger storm?

I would guess it will find a storm of about 50 kt.

[Extratropical94]

Plane is flying towards Harvey. Will they find a stronger storm?

I think so, based on current organization trends and dvorak estimates, even though I doubt the NHC will raise it to beyond 40kts at 5pm.

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 192020
AF308 0408A HARVEY HDOB 02 20110819
201030 3012N 08905W 9253 00799 0127 +230 +213 015001 002 /// /// 03
201100 3010N 08906W 9214 00817 0119 +226 +208 005002 003 /// /// 03
201130 3008N 08907W 8848 01167 0112 +204 //// 341004 006 /// /// 05
201200 3007N 08909W 8543 01476 0117 +188 //// 334008 009 /// /// 05
201230 3005N 08910W 8491 01534 0123 +180 //// 336008 009 /// /// 05
201300 3003N 08911W 8480 01535 0111 +179 //// 334008 009 /// /// 05
201330 3001N 08912W 8145 01871 0102 +161 //// 018006 007 /// /// 05
201400 3000N 08913W 7863 02172 0100 +144 //// 047008 009 /// /// 05
201430 2958N 08914W 7581 02464 //// +128 //// 028005 006 /// /// 05
201500 2956N 08915W 7277 02806 //// +110 //// 358005 006 /// /// 05
201530 2955N 08916W 7038 03097 //// +088 //// 345007 008 /// /// 05
201600 2953N 08917W 6995 03154 //// +080 //// 346008 008 /// /// 05
201630 2951N 08919W 6984 03166 //// +080 //// 342009 009 /// /// 05
201700 2950N 08920W 6995 03152 //// +080 //// 341008 009 /// /// 05
201730 2948N 08921W 7000 03144 //// +080 //// 337009 010 /// /// 05
201800 2945N 08923W 6990 03159 //// +081 //// 345011 012 /// /// 05
201830 2943N 08924W 7011 03158 //// +085 //// 354011 011 /// /// 05
201900 2941N 08926W 6857 03340 //// +072 //// 353010 010 /// /// 05
201930 2939N 08927W 6584 03672 //// +052 //// 341004 007 /// /// 05
202000 2937N 08928W 6309 04002 //// +045 //// 293006 008 /// /// 05
$$
;

[WeatherGuesser]

Another one that won't make it to H?

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 192030
AF308 0408A HARVEY HDOB 03 20110819
202030 2936N 08929W 6122 04249 0048 +043 //// 332008 009 /// /// 05
202100 2934N 08930W 5978 04463 0062 +034 //// 349010 010 /// /// 05
202130 2932N 08931W 5866 04615 0061 +030 //// 337008 010 /// /// 05
202200 2930N 08930W 5727 04809 0051 +018 //// 302009 011 /// /// 05
202230 2928N 08929W 5583 05015 //// +005 //// 301010 012 /// /// 05
202300 2926N 08929W 5458 05197 0273 -007 //// 307012 012 /// /// 05
202330 2924N 08928W 5302 05431 0291 -021 //// 309011 012 /// /// 05
202400 2923N 08928W 5196 05591 0302 -033 //// 306010 010 /// /// 05
202430 2921N 08928W 5116 05714 0311 -040 //// 328008 009 /// /// 05
202500 2919N 08927W 5026 05855 0320 -045 //// 013008 009 /// /// 05
202530 2917N 08927W 4989 05914 0324 -045 //// 027010 011 /// /// 05
202600 2915N 08926W 4988 05911 0321 -045 //// 023011 012 /// /// 05
202630 2913N 08926W 4991 05904 0319 -044 //// 020013 013 /// /// 05
202700 2910N 08925W 4995 05895 0316 -040 //// 009013 014 /// /// 05
202730 2908N 08925W 4992 05899 0315 -042 //// 358012 013 /// /// 05
202800 2905N 08924W 4991 05900 0314 -044 //// 351011 011 /// /// 05
202830 2903N 08923W 4992 05898 0313 -043 //// 344012 013 /// /// 05
202900 2900N 08923W 5009 05884 0321 -040 //// 343013 014 /// /// 05
202930 2857N 08922W 4920 06000 0308 -045 //// 346008 009 /// /// 05
203000 2855N 08922W 4717 06327 0330 -064 //// 344007 008 /// /// 05
$$

[cycloneye]

Who wants to post the google graphics?