ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[artist]

URNT15 KNHC 091318
AF306 0214A MARIA HDOB 25 20110909
130900 1327N 05621W 8425 01574 0097 +171 +138 213018 019 017 000 00
130930 1328N 05622W 8423 01576 0094 +174 +134 209016 017 022 000 00
131000 1330N 05623W 8422 01578 0098 +168 +137 210015 016 024 002 00
131030 1331N 05624W 8428 01571 0094 +176 +138 219016 017 021 001 00
131100 1332N 05626W 8437 01563 0094 +179 +129 215017 017 015 000 00
131130 1334N 05627W 8424 01577 0096 +174 +125 220017 018 014 000 00
131200 1335N 05628W 8422 01580 0098 +172 +125 221016 017 015 000 03
131230 1336N 05629W 8425 01575 0098 +174 +122 227016 017 012 000 03
131300 1337N 05631W 8426 01573 0101 +170 +120 227017 018 011 000 00
131330 1337N 05632W 8421 01580 0099 +171 +119 223016 017 010 000 03
131400 1338N 05633W 8424 01577 0098 +175 +123 221015 016 012 000 03
131430 1339N 05635W 8429 01572 0098 +175 +121 216013 014 009 000 00
131500 1340N 05636W 8422 01581 0098 +175 +120 209012 012 008 000 00
131530 1340N 05638W 8426 01574 0097 +175 +120 213012 012 008 000 03
131600 1341N 05639W 8421 01579 0096 +177 +118 204013 013 008 000 03
131630 1342N 05641W 8422 01579 0096 +180 +116 196015 015 010 000 00
131700 1343N 05643W 8424 01577 0094 +180 +116 195014 015 013 000 03
131730 1343N 05644W 8428 01574 0093 +180 +118 195011 013 012 000 03
131800 1344N 05646W 8425 01576 0090 +185 +120 209008 008 012 000 03
131830 1344N 05647W 8418 01582 0091 +183 +124 222006 006 011 000 03

[wxman57]

The hunt for the LLC continues. Recon isn't having much luck. Regardless, lots of wind and rain for the islands soon:

[artist]

URNT15 KNHC 091328
AF306 0214A MARIA HDOB 26 20110909
131900 1345N 05649W 8428 01574 0091 +184 +123 253005 007 016 000 03
131930 1346N 05650W 8425 01575 0091 +184 +118 255008 008 020 000 00
132000 1347N 05651W 8424 01577 0091 +185 +116 245005 006 018 000 00
132030 1349N 05652W 8421 01581 0087 +191 +113 242002 004 015 000 00
132100 1350N 05653W 8426 01572 0085 +192 +113 160004 005 017 000 00
132130 1351N 05654W 8422 01579 0090 +191 +114 165009 009 019 000 03
132200 1352N 05655W 8419 01580 0092 +189 +120 182009 010 018 000 03
132230 1352N 05657W 8426 01575 0092 +183 +120 198007 008 021 002 00
132300 1352N 05659W 8423 01576 0090 +185 +114 202008 010 022 000 03
132330 1352N 05700W 8418 01579 0089 +187 +110 203009 010 018 000 03
132400 1353N 05702W 8424 01575 0087 +188 +112 207008 009 020 000 00
132430 1354N 05703W 8424 01575 0089 +184 +118 215009 010 022 000 00
132500 1354N 05705W 8422 01577 0089 +182 +122 206010 011 022 000 00
132530 1355N 05706W 8426 01573 0092 +176 +127 189007 009 023 000 00
132600 1356N 05708W 8422 01574 0093 +175 +132 143003 004 023 003 03
132630 1356N 05710W 8428 01569 0093 +175 +128 190004 004 026 003 00
132700 1356N 05711W 8425 01571 0092 +174 +130 155005 006 027 003 00
132730 1356N 05713W 8420 01577 0099 +161 +140 103005 006 032 008 00
132800 1356N 05715W 8434 01561 0096 +163 +146 083007 010 030 008 00
132830 1356N 05717W 8446 01551 0090 +179 +133 167006 008 031 005 00

[artist]

000
URNT11 KNHC 091235
97779 12344 60140 55208 15300 10027 17119 /2508
41130
RMK AF306 0214A MARIA OB 06
SWS = 31 KTS

[KWT]

What a vile mess this system is! Looks like the Euro might have been correct.

To be honest I'm a little surprised Maria has managed to stay a tropical storm.

As Wxman57 said showed with his image, you could make a pretty good arguement for Maria being a wave right now, a very convective wave but a wave nonetheless.

[artist]

URNT15 KNHC 091328
AF306 0214A MARIA HDOB 26 20110909
131900 1345N 05649W 8428 01574 0091 +184 +123 253005 007 016 000 03
131930 1346N 05650W 8425 01575 0091 +184 +118 255008 008 020 000 00
132000 1347N 05651W 8424 01577 0091 +185 +116 245005 006 018 000 00
132030 1349N 05652W 8421 01581 0087 +191 +113 242002 004 015 000 00
132100 1350N 05653W 8426 01572 0085 +192 +113 160004 005 017 000 00
132130 1351N 05654W 8422 01579 0090 +191 +114 165009 009 019 000 03
132200 1352N 05655W 8419 01580 0092 +189 +120 182009 010 018 000 03
132230 1352N 05657W 8426 01575 0092 +183 +120 198007 008 021 002 00
132300 1352N 05659W 8423 01576 0090 +185 +114 202008 010 022 000 03
132330 1352N 05700W 8418 01579 0089 +187 +110 203009 010 018 000 03
132400 1353N 05702W 8424 01575 0087 +188 +112 207008 009 020 000 00
132430 1354N 05703W 8424 01575 0089 +184 +118 215009 010 022 000 00
132500 1354N 05705W 8422 01577 0089 +182 +122 206010 011 022 000 00
132530 1355N 05706W 8426 01573 0092 +176 +127 189007 009 023 000 00
132600 1356N 05708W 8422 01574 0093 +175 +132 143003 004 023 003 03
132630 1356N 05710W 8428 01569 0093 +175 +128 190004 004 026 003 00
132700 1356N 05711W 8425 01571 0092 +174 +130 155005 006 027 003 00
132730 1356N 05713W 8420 01577 0099 +161 +140 103005 006 032 008 00
132800 1356N 05715W 8434 01561 0096 +163 +146 083007 010 030 008 00
132830 1356N 05717W 8446 01551 0090 +179 +133 167006 008 031 005 00
$$

[Gustywind]

Aric, here are some links, closer to the islands

Guadeloupe short range: http://www.meteo.gp/donnees/bulletin/3h/bul_3h_guad.php

Martinique short range: http://www.meteo.gp/donnees/bulletin/3h/bul_3h_mart.php

Otherwise, these a long range with a longer loop, mais it seems that the server is down:
http://www.cgste.mq/radar/Animation.asp

Nice job ouragans . Looks like Maria is strengthning, what do you think?

It is, for sure! I would remove Yellow Cyclone Alert for Martinique and replace it by Orange Alert for "Heavy rains/Thunderstorms" and "Rough seas" by 11:30AM

But you know how they are slow in Martinique, they always put alerts when the threat is there not as a preventive measure

You're right that's a very good point, they are leazy as usual. Let's hope that changes are in tape at 1130AM. Looks like more and more that TS Maria is becoming menacing for Guadeloupe. Let's wait and see how Maria behaves in reaching the islands, seems she's continues to improve its self given the latest sat pics...

[artist]

URNT15 KNHC 091338
AF306 0214A MARIA HDOB 27 20110909
132900 1356N 05718W 8418 01577 0086 +184 +124 183009 011 029 005 00
132930 1357N 05720W 8428 01566 0087 +182 +121 177009 010 030 003 00
133000 1357N 05722W 8425 01573 0091 +179 +125 168007 008 027 005 03
133030 1356N 05723W 8426 01572 0091 +180 +125 193007 007 028 003 00
133100 1356N 05725W 8422 01574 0091 +177 +124 201008 008 029 001 03
133130 1356N 05727W 8432 01565 0091 +176 +126 200008 009 028 002 03
133200 1357N 05728W 8423 01575 0094 +175 +125 182009 009 029 001 00
133230 1358N 05730W 8425 01572 0094 +174 +127 165007 007 028 002 03
133300 1358N 05731W 8428 01569 0093 +175 +126 172006 007 029 000 00
133330 1357N 05733W 8424 01573 0091 +178 +125 166004 005 029 000 00
133400 1357N 05735W 8422 01576 0094 +175 +126 167005 005 030 001 00
133430 1357N 05736W 8425 01572 0094 +176 +124 163005 005 030 001 00
133500 1357N 05738W 8422 01575 0097 +170 +129 144006 007 030 002 00
133530 1356N 05740W 8425 01576 0096 +172 +131 158008 008 030 002 03
133600 1356N 05741W 8423 01574 0094 +173 +134 118006 007 029 001 00
133630 1355N 05743W 8430 01570 0094 +178 +129 147007 008 027 000 00
133700 1354N 05744W 8424 01574 0095 +175 +125 161007 007 029 000 00
133730 1353N 05746W 8421 01581 0095 +174 +125 134007 008 031 004 00
133800 1352N 05747W 8429 01573 0105 +160 +134 107008 011 031 015 00
133830 1352N 05749W 8423 01578 0101 +166 +136 091013 015 034 013 00

[Aric Dunn]

pretty sure they will find it closer to barbados... the problem with the first pass near there they were not at operational..

[artist]

URNT15 KNHC 091348
AF306 0214A MARIA HDOB 28 20110909
133900 1351N 05750W 8423 01577 0095 +178 +129 114012 013 031 004 00
133930 1350N 05752W 8422 01579 0097 +176 +132 112007 007 031 004 00
134000 1349N 05753W 8428 01580 0095 +181 +129 090003 004 027 003 03
134030 1348N 05754W 8428 01574 0093 +182 +130 047002 003 027 002 00
134100 1346N 05755W 8425 01576 0092 +185 +126 331001 004 026 001 03
134130 1345N 05756W 8421 01580 0098 +174 +127 288002 003 031 006 00
134200 1344N 05757W 8423 01579 0092 +186 +125 007002 003 027 003 00
134230 1342N 05758W 8428 01576 0090 +193 +122 211001 002 028 002 00
134300 1341N 05759W 8424 01583 0093 +189 +123 185002 003 028 001 00
134330 1339N 05800W 8426 01577 0092 +190 +124 223002 003 028 004 00
134400 1338N 05801W 8425 01578 0092 +189 +126 233002 002 031 007 00
134430 1336N 05801W 8424 01579 0093 +185 +128 246004 004 030 008 00
134500 1335N 05802W 8422 01583 0091 +189 +127 179005 006 029 008 00
134530 1334N 05803W 8425 01580 0090 +191 +121 195005 007 028 006 00
134600 1332N 05804W 8426 01576 0087 +195 +119 238004 005 028 007 00
134630 1331N 05805W 8423 01581 0083 +202 +113 275007 008 029 005 00
134700 1329N 05806W 8429 01575 0088 +196 +114 288006 006 030 004 03
134730 1328N 05807W 8424 01586 0096 +192 +113 315004 005 /// /// 03
134800 1329N 05808W 8420 01583 0090 +196 +109 003002 003 033 005 03
134830 1330N 05809W 8429 01576 0092 +190 +112 251001 002 031 007 00
$$

[artist]

thru obs 27

[dwsqos2]

A storm slaughtered by fast low-level flow on September 9th; that doesn't bode well for seasonal activity.

[Emmett_Brown]

To me this has the classic inverted V shape ( ^ ) of a strong tropical wave. If there is a center, i think it is elongated from NE to SW. On Sat image you can clearly see the leading edge of the wave/low flaring convection as a lobe on the SW side.

[artist]

obs 28

[wxman57]

What a vile mess this system is! Looks like the Euro might have been correct.

To be honest I'm a little surprised Maria has managed to stay a tropical storm.

As Wxman57 said showed with his image, you could make a pretty good arguement for Maria being a wave right now, a very convective wave but a wave nonetheless.

Tropical waves often produce tropical storm conditions. And it is only a tropical storm because the NHC is calling it one. Recon cannot find a well-defined LLC, generally a requirement for a TS. What this means is that Maria will not likely change much in organization as it tracks through the islands today. That is, no rapid intensification.

[cycloneye]

What this means is that Maria will not likely change much in organization as it tracks through the islands today. That is, no rapid intensification.

That is the good news. But the bad thing will be the squally weather that the islands will get.

[Gustywind]

From NRL...
20110909.1345.14LMARIA.40kts-1003mb-140N-570W.

[CronkPSU]

As usual, the nhc gets yelled at for calling it a tropical storm and they would be getting blasted if they were calling it a wave...still seems like it has a circulation to me, what difference does what it is called have to do to where it is headed i think is more important

[SootyTern]

What a vile mess this system is! Looks like the Euro might have been correct.

To be honest I'm a little surprised Maria has managed to stay a tropical storm.

As Wxman57 said showed with his image, you could make a pretty good arguement for Maria being a wave right now, a very convective wave but a wave nonetheless.

Tropical waves often produce tropical storm conditions. And it is only a tropical storm because the NHC is calling it one. Recon cannot find a well-defined LLC, generally a requirement for a TS. What this means is that Maria will not likely change much in organization as it tracks through the islands today. That is, no rapid intensification.

Will this change the model runs if she has opened up into a wave? Seems like the possibility exists for her to run west a lot further as a disorganized mess, and if/when she gets a new LLC initialized, will we have a whole new game on?

[SouthFLTropics]

This situation is reminding me very much of an earlier storm this season...Emily, Part Two

SFT