ATL: IRENE - Models

[WeatherEmperor]

FIM 102 hrs:

http://fim.noaa.gov/FIMscp/displayMap.c ... =-1&wjet=1

Approaching southeastern cuba.

[Ivanhater]

12z Canadian ...MOBILE, ALABAMA as ridge pushes it

[Aric Dunn]

12z cmc is a good shift east this time.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[KWT]

Probably something close to a major if it takes the CMC track...

Man I'm getting real Fay memories because the models with that system suggested if it were to miss the islands it'd explode in good conditions but in the end it ran up much of the land and enver pulled far away enough from land to really get going.

Got a feeling 97L may do something similar based on some of the models.

not long till the 12z ECM starts to run...

[Ivanhater]

12z cmc is a good shift east this time.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

Central Gulf coast just like the 00z run which lines up with GFS and Euro Ensembles...again the 12z Operational GFS was very close to showing the ridge trapping it..well see

[WeatherEmperor]

FIM 120 hr:

http://fim.noaa.gov/FIMscp/displayMap.c ... =-1&wjet=1

Over water just south of central Cuba coast. Beginning to move more NW.

[KWT]

12z cmc is a good shift east this time.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

Yep, in the 72-120hrs its decently east of where it was but ultimatly still a west outlier for now.

[Ivanhater]

Interesting tidbit from a Pro met on another board in regards to model guidance today

That's the thing I really notice about both the GFS and ECMWF - they get the system up to about S FL, and then the trough over the eastern US lifts out and heights build north of it. I have seen the models, particularly the GFS, try to keep a system going slowly north in that kind of setup, when in reality the system gets left behind and potentially drifts west or west-northwest depending on the strength of the new ridge. Something to watch.

[lonelymike]

Doesn't seem like the CMC has done real well with this system

[Vortex]

12z HWRF finished...stronger and farther west this run:

Say it aint so, what I gather from all the guidance is that no matter how you slice it portions of FL if not most of the state stand a very good chance of having a Hurricane on their doorstep within about 5 days....

[KWT]

good ole HWRF doing what it does best, being too strong and being too far right of the other models. That being said the HWRF would be a big concern for me...far bigger then the current track from some of the global models.

[jhpigott]

12z HWRF finished...stronger and farther west this run:


Say it aint so, what I gather from all the guidance is that no matter how you slice it portions of FL if not most of the state stand a very good chance of having a Hurricane on their doorstep within about 5 days....

Given the size and moisture envelope of 97, I believe it's a safe bet that even if it tracks west of the FL peninsula that most of the state is going to get some rain and some squally conditions

[Ivanhater]

Doesn't seem like the CMC has done real well with this system

Huh..looks like 97L has followed the Canadian and other models exactly so far...tropical wave approaching the Islands.

[northjaxpro]

12z HWRF finished...stronger and farther west this run:


Say it aint so, what I gather from all the guidance is that no matter how you slice it portions of FL if not most of the state stand a very good chance of having a Hurricane on their doorstep within about 5 days....

Given the size and moisture envelope of 97, I believe it's a safe bet that even if it tracks west of the FL peninsula that most of the state is going to get some rain and some squally conditions

If it does expand and tracks as you stated, then yes, most of the peninsula would get some significant effects.

[ROCK]

Doesn't seem like the CMC has done real well with this system

Huh..looks like 97L has followed the Canadian and other models exactly so far...tropical wave approaching the Islands.

the reason the CMC was to far west the last run was because it didnt develope it until Jam....this run it takes off before so naturally a slight eastward shift.....I wouldnt say significant....

[SFLcane]

Doesn't seem like the CMC has done real well with this system

Huh..looks like 97L has followed the Canadian and other models exactly so far...tropical wave approaching the Islands.

Models in general don't show much development till this passes the islands. The cmc looks like it's coming around and might shift future north and east on next run.

[ROCK]

HWRF is horrid....I dont know why they even run it.....939mb is a wee bit extreme...

[WeatherEmperor]

FIM 138 hr:

http://fim.noaa.gov/FIMscp/displayMap.c ... =-1&wjet=1

Emerging off the north coast of central Cuba in the direction of Key West.

[vacanechaser]

FIM 138 hours




Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Ivanhater]

Doesn't seem like the CMC has done real well with this system

Huh..looks like 97L has followed the Canadian and other models exactly so far...tropical wave approaching the Islands.

Models in general don't show much development till this passes the islands. The cmc looks like it's coming around and might shift future north and east on next run.

The issue is the upper dynamics are different for the 12z guidance so far on all the models....faster trough and more ridging building in..we will have to see if it is a trend..