ATL : HARVEY - Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

Someone soon may cry eye ....LOL hehe

lol... well its could try to run at hurricane strength if it can get going now.. tiny systems can do it.. and this one is tiny..

[tolakram]

live loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... map=latlon

I'd say it's pretty clearly intensifying.

[hurricanefloyd5]

Someone soon may cry eye ....LOL hehe

lol... well its could try to run at hurricane strength if it can get going now.. tiny systems can do it.. and this one is tiny..

Ok I will be the first to say it looks like an eye forming on was appears to be a ts now

[HurrMark]

Deep convection is starting to wrap around the center over the last couple of hours...the system is a bit sloppy but I think it is a TS right now. The next recon won't be till this evening, so if the NHC wants to be conservative about this, we may have to wait a little while longer.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011
200 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT BECOMES TROPICAL STORM
HARVEY...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR BELIZE...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 84.2W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

[HurrMark]

So we've got Harv...not a surprise. Hopefully the streak will continue so we won't have a big storm coming into Belize...

[Blown Away]

Keep them coming, the Atlantic is on a 8 Tropical Storm hitting streak.

[TwisterFanatic]

Keep them coming, the Atlantic is on a 8 Tropical Storm hitting streak.

Nothing to complain about, imho.

Except for the people effected by these TS.

[HurrMark]

Keep them coming, the Atlantic is on a 8 Tropical Storm hitting streak.

If 98 develops before 97, we could get it up to 9...I have a bad feeling that this once 97 gets going, the streak will end...

[GCANE]

Anti-cyclone is positioned to the west of Harvey and Harvey will be tracking into it.

Also, convection is deepening (colder cloud tops) and firing nearly over the LLC.

Beginning to track into moderately high OHC water.

Looks like a setup for a possible RI before landfall.

[ozonepete]

That new burst over the center is troubling. Though it looked like land interaction was hobbling it a little earlier, it sure doesn't seem to be affected that much by land now. Could see a pretty good ramp-up this evening and overnight.

[FireRat]

If Harvey and 98L get named before 97L, we're looking at the name Jose for the potentially dangerous 97.....a new name for a new storm. Jose's been insignificant in the past, who knows if this year's his turn to become big.

oh yeah...did someone say EYE

pretty soon we might be saying "EYEyeyey"!

[ozonepete]

If Harvey and 98L get named before 97L, we're looking at the name Jose for the potentially dangerous 97.....a new name for a new storm. Jose's been insignificant in the past, who knows if this year's his turn to become big.

oh yeah...did someone say EYE

pretty soon we might be saying "EYEyeyey"!

Eye can't believe you guys...

[dwsqos2]

SAB's already at T3.0; it was slightly lagging satellite estimates during the earlier recon flight.

[Florida1118]

SAB's already at T3.0; it was slightly lagging satellite estimates during the earlier recon flight.

Seems Harvey really wants to be something more devistating. Hes got 24-36hrs, lets see what he makes of it

[ozonepete]

SAB's already at T3.0; it was slightly lagging satellite estimates during the earlier recon flight.

Seems Harvey really wants to be something more devistating. Hes got 24-36hrs, lets see what he makes of it

That's a famous little corner there between Belize and Honduras. There's been some mighty ramp-ups there over that bath water.

[Aric Dunn]

Belize radar.... should be interesting late tonight and tomorrow

http://www.hydromet.gov.bz/250-km-radar-loop

[Tireman4]

I have kinfolks in Honduras. They live in San Pedro Sula and Tela. I will keep you updated as much as I can.

[GCANE]

That new burst over the center is troubling. Though it looked like land interaction was hobbling it a little earlier, it sure doesn't seem to be affected that much by land now. Could see a pretty good ramp-up this evening and overnight.

Phil:

I have been watching that cell and it doesn't look like there was a lot of rain-rate with that burst.

Maybe UL temps are currently too high to support a high lapse-rate.

Later night might be a good opportunity for a hot-tower to fire off when UL temps fall.

[ozonepete]

That new burst over the center is troubling. Though it looked like land interaction was hobbling it a little earlier, it sure doesn't seem to be affected that much by land now. Could see a pretty good ramp-up this evening and overnight.

Phil:

I have been watching that cell and it doesn't look like there was a lot of rain-rate with that burst.
Maybe UL temps are currently too high to support a high lapse-rate.
Later night might be a good opportunity for a hot-tower to fire off when UL temps fall.

Interesting. But there are a lot of reasons why it could have a low rain rate and one other I can think of is land proximity. the surface dewpoints of the air feeding into that complex might be lower due to sinking air coming down the mountains from the south or southwest. But the dynamics are still very much there for thunderstorm growth, and land interaction will be less interrupting after it passes 85 or 86W.