ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[ROCK]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

anticyclone over the eastern blob.....funny the western blob has more low level convergence....

[Recurve]

javelin, question on this point:

but 80W25N-80W20N seems reasonable

referring to a trough/weakness? I'm wondering what the reference is cause that's almost exactly my location...

[Sanibel]

Consolidating into one central feature.

Basin hasn't shown strong support so intensity could stay low. All depends if the season has turned the corner or not.

Trend is left, or west.

[Dave]

613
URNT15 KNHC 311540
AF304 01EEA INVEST HDOB 03 20110731
153000 1732N 06416W 6992 03200 0143 +091 +066 139015 015 /// /// 03
153030 1731N 06414W 6995 03196 0141 +092 +063 144014 014 /// /// 03
153100 1730N 06411W 6986 03209 0146 +089 +061 141014 014 /// /// 03
153130 1729N 06409W 6984 03208 0147 +085 +058 138013 014 /// /// 03
153200 1728N 06407W 6984 03209 0148 +086 +056 133013 013 /// /// 03
153230 1727N 06404W 6987 03205 0149 +086 +056 134012 012 /// /// 03
153300 1726N 06402W 6987 03203 0151 +084 +055 136011 012 /// /// 03
153330 1725N 06400W 6992 03198 0145 +088 +055 136011 012 /// /// 03
153400 1724N 06358W 6837 03386 0147 +079 +053 123011 011 /// /// 03
153430 1723N 06356W 6557 03735 0146 +059 +051 122013 016 /// /// 03
153500 1722N 06354W 6324 04026 0131 +050 +045 121022 023 /// /// 03
153530 1721N 06352W 6142 04273 0131 +037 +036 114021 023 /// /// 03
153600 1720N 06350W 6007 04454 0115 +025 //// 117019 020 /// /// 05
153630 1720N 06348W 5891 04582 0099 +016 //// 121018 018 /// /// 05
153700 1719N 06346W 5788 04725 0096 +009 //// 119019 019 /// /// 05
153730 1718N 06344W 5688 04865 0097 +001 //// 119021 023 /// /// 05
153800 1717N 06343W 5564 05059 0113 -011 //// 117024 025 /// /// 05
153830 1716N 06341W 5459 05210 0289 -016 -019 116024 025 /// /// 03
153900 1715N 06339W 5374 05332 0296 -024 -028 117024 024 /// /// 03
153930 1714N 06337W 5290 05461 0304 -030 -037 120021 023 /// /// 03
$$
;

[Frank2]

Looks like an ITCZ disturbance (though it's not on the ITZ) or even a TUTT feature - just a guess but I'd say it won't be a TD today:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html

[JTE50]

We're off. I'm leaving soon so someone else will have to do it.

I can do some recon posting - just PM me on the workflow

[Dave]

Please post your questions, comments, help, etc for recon flights into and out of 91L...thanks!

[Dave]

Recon discussion thread located here...will open in a new window.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=111317

[cycloneye]

Let's see what data they get if any from the area in front.

[SouthFloridawx]

[sunnyday]

I have a question that will surely show my lack of knowledge in this area. When should we know fairly accurately if this future storm is going to threaten the US? I know the Mariner's Rule of 100, 200, and 300 mile errors one, two, and three days out. What I'm not getting today is the almost certainty coming from some about what the storm is going to do when it isn't a storm at all yet. Is everything that obvious already?
Thank you for your help.

[HURAKAN]

[Frank2]

The NHC will have a better idea if it does form into a depression or storm - right now it's neither, so hard for them to forecast what it will do - stay tuned - but don't lose sleep over it, either...

[Evil Jeremy]

I have a question that will surely show my lack of knowledge in this area. When should we know fairly accurately if this future storm is going to threaten the US? I know the Mariner's Rule of 100, 200, and 300 mile errors one, two, and three days out. What I'm not getting today is the almost certainty coming from some about what the storm is going to do when it isn't a storm at all yet. Is everything that obvious already?
Thank you for your help.

Nothing is ever certain in the tropics, and everything is much less certain with this system. Lots of debating on if this will recurve or not, and if so, when. 91L's future is anything but obvious.

[rog]

Will they investigate both areas or just the one they think is going to become the dominate one?

[Dave]

416
URNT15 KNHC 311550
AF304 01EEA INVEST HDOB 04 20110731
154000 1714N 06335W 5215 05571 0310 -034 -046 113018 018 /// /// 03
154030 1713N 06333W 5134 05691 0317 -042 -054 113018 018 /// /// 03
154100 1712N 06331W 5062 05804 0325 -048 -060 119017 018 /// /// 03
154130 1711N 06329W 4989 05923 0334 -050 -068 118020 021 /// /// 03
154200 1710N 06327W 4916 06042 0341 -057 -074 110020 021 /// /// 03
154230 1709N 06325W 4852 06145 0349 -066 -080 102018 018 /// /// 03
154300 1708N 06323W 4794 06238 0354 -074 -085 100017 017 /// /// 03
154330 1707N 06321W 4737 06331 0361 -083 -091 099016 017 /// /// 03
154400 1706N 06319W 4677 06429 0367 -092 -098 099016 016 /// /// 03
154430 1705N 06317W 4623 06519 0368 -101 -104 101015 015 /// /// 03
154500 1704N 06315W 4571 06594 0368 -109 -110 103015 015 /// /// 03
154530 1703N 06312W 4518 06684 0372 -117 -117 107012 013 /// /// 03
154600 1702N 06310W 4476 06748 0368 -123 -124 109010 011 /// /// 03
154630 1701N 06308W 4462 06772 0369 -125 -131 114010 010 /// /// 03
154700 1700N 06306W 4461 06773 0368 -125 -138 118011 011 /// /// 03
154730 1659N 06304W 4463 06768 0366 -125 -146 110009 010 /// /// 03
154800 1658N 06301W 4462 06767 0367 -125 -152 118009 009 /// /// 03
154830 1657N 06259W 4462 06771 0368 -125 -157 120009 009 /// /// 03
154900 1656N 06257W 4466 06767 0367 -125 -161 122008 008 /// /// 03
154930 1655N 06254W 4466 06762 0367 -121 -163 131009 010 /// /// 03
$$
;

[Aric Dunn]

only possible place a LLC would be at right now. looking at surface obs, satellite is about 13.5N 57.5W

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html

[EyELeSs1]

Will they investigate both areas or just the one they think is going to become the dominate one?

It is quite clear the western most 'area' will not become anything substantial... doubt they will investigate unless really 'trying' hard to close off a LLC

[Ivanhater]

12z GFS...48 hours



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[EyELeSs1]

only possible place a LLC would be at right now. looking at surface obs, satellite is about 13.5N 57.5W

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html

what surface obs are you referring to?