ATL: PHILIPPE - Post - Tropical - Discussion

[Nimbus]

Philippe is so far north already. It's hard to believe a strong ridge is going to have time to develop after Ophelia moves out. Thats 7 days out anyways so the forecast can still change. If Ophelia moves out a little slower than expected she would leave a weakness for Philippe to follow.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
500 PM AST THU SEP 29 2011

PHILIPPE HAS BEEN A CONUNDRUM TODAY. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS
BEEN ELONGATED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...AND RECENT MICROWAVE
OVERPASSES HAVE SHOWN A WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL EYE WELL TO THE
NORTH OF THE PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED CENTER. IT APPEARS THAT THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS REFORMING FARTHER NORTH...BUT IT IS NOT YET
CERTAIN HOW MUCH IT IS TUCKED UNDER THE DEEP CONVECTION. BECAUSE
OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN CENTER LOCATION...DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RUN THE GAMUT FROM 35 TO 55 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT
40 KT...BUT THAT COULD BE CONSERVATIVE ESPECIALLY IF THE CENTER
CONTINUES TO REFORM OR GET PULLED FARTHER NORTH INTO THE
CONVECTION. PHILIPPE HAS ABOUT 24 HOURS TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE
NORTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES. HOWEVER...THE INTENSITY MODELS
SUGGEST THAT PHILIPPE WILL BE ABLE TO WITHSTAND THE HOSTILE
CONDITIONS AND THUS ONLY SHOW GRADUAL WEAKENING AFTER 48 HOURS.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT SCENARIO AND KEEPS PHILIPPE AS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.

GIVEN THE CENTER RELOCATION...THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 310
DEGREES AT 11 KT. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK
REASONING. PHILIPPE WILL CONTINUE TO BE STEERED NORTHWESTWARD FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND THEN TURN WESTWARD BY DAY 3 AS IT COMES
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE WESTWARD
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH DAY 5...ESPECIALLY AS PHILIPPE
BECOMES A WEAKER SYSTEM AS IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY
FLOW. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND THERE
ARE REALLY NO OUTLIERS IN THE SUITE OF MODELS. THEREFORE...LITTLE
CHANGE WAS REQUIRED TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST COMPARED WITH THE
PREVIOUS ONE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 20.2N 43.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 21.4N 44.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 30/1800Z 22.8N 46.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 23.8N 48.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 01/1800Z 24.5N 50.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 02/1800Z 25.0N 54.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 03/1800Z 25.0N 58.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 04/1800Z 24.5N 62.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[cycloneye]

At 5 PM advisory,they now keep him as a TC for all the forecast period,different from past advisories that had it as Post-tropical after 96 hours.

INIT 29/2100Z 20.2N 43.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 21.4N 44.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 30/1800Z 22.8N 46.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 23.8N 48.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 01/1800Z 24.5N 50.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 02/1800Z 25.0N 54.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 03/1800Z 25.0N 58.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 04/1800Z 24.5N 62.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

[KUEFC]

Anything from today causing the pro mets any concern with regard to the US? Please reply as a big trip depends on this. Thanks in advance

[KUEFC]

Just so you understand my paranoia people comparing it to andrew etc

[hipshot]

Just so you understand my paranoia people comparing it to andrew etc

Even though it looks like this guy could be headed into the Caribbean or CONUS, he just doesn't get
any respect. Personally, if I lived any where near the path of this one, I'd be keeping my head up!!

[KUEFC]

Just so you understand my paranoia people comparing it to andrew etc

Even though it looks like this guy could be headed into the Caribbean or CONUS, he just doesn't get
any respect. Personally, if I lived any where near the path of this one, I'd be keeping my head up!!

see i have seen alot of this today, but yet cant see anything even suggesting this getting to the US from the upper atmosphere etc i am only new to this so would really love a pro met to jump in and show me what i am missing today that wasnt there yesterday.

[AJC3]

Anything from today causing the pro mets any concern with regard to the US? Please reply as a big trip depends on this. Thanks in advance

No, not in the least bit.

[KUEFC]

See and thats why pro mets here are the best, thank you so much i thought everything had changed with the way people where talking on other sites

[MGC]

Looks like we might have to keep an eye on Philippe provided the storm does not dissipate. Looking at the models they have a ridge building back across the weakness Ophelia will be moving through....the GFDL actually moves Philippe to the WSW NE of the islands with a ridge located over the western Atlantic off the EC...Hope the shear rips it apart...MGC

[AJC3]

Looks like we might have to keep an eye on Philippe provided the storm does not dissipate. Looking at the models they have a ridge building back across the weakness Ophelia will be moving through....the GFDL actually moves Philippe to the WSW NE of the islands with a ridge located over the western Atlantic off the EC...Hope the shear rips it apart...MGC

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=111961&p=2198030&hilit=#p2198030

Regardless of the strength of the surface ridge, the 500MB ridge will be weak to non-existent west of 65W, and there will be strong upper level westerlies all along the SE seaboard. Worst case scenario, if anything gets sent westward it will be a shallow inverted trough or swirl of little consequence. East coasters would be better served saving their concern for something that merits it. Nothing like that is on the horizion.

[rainstorm]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=168hr

quite interesting

[AJC3]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2011092918&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=168hr

quite interesting

Equally interesting....

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[Macrocane]

Some models have got me thinking for several days that Philippe could become a hurricane, certainly it has been a rather difficult system to forecast track-wise and intenisty-wise.

[bexar]

^

so were Katia, Maria and Ophelia.

all of them strugging but tenacious systems

every long-lived storm this year that began their lives in the CV region seemed to have the chance of making it into a hurricane within the vicinity between the Islands and Bermuda.

[rainstorm]

BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi
NoGaps 168 (l) and Euro 240 (r) raise eyebrows off S Atlantic coast pic.twitter.com/lGY3kk3k

[AJC3]

BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi
NoGaps 168 (l) and Euro 240 (r) raise eyebrows off S Atlantic coast pic.twitter.com/lGY3kk3k

Nothing eyebrow raising there. You have the worst global model in the NOGAPS, and the 240 ECM, which shows nothing more than a weak inverted trough north of the GA being battered by upper level shear. Perhaps JB is talking about his own eyebrows. Let's see some model consensus and continuity develop first.

[brunota2003]

He's saying something out in lala land, on two not so good models, is eyebrow raising? Hmm...so, does that mean the phantom hurricanes the GFS spins up every season at 15 days out is eyebrow raising, too?

[bexar]

who is Joe Bastardi anyway? I keep reading his name here and all I can is, he's been quite a fail so far.

[fci]

who is Joe Bastardi anyway? I keep reading his name here and all I can is, he's been quite a fail so far.

Here is the Wikipedia page on Joe Bastardi: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Bastardi

He was with Accu-Weather as lead Hurricane forecaster and is now with Weatherbell.
Bastardi is a controversial Meteorologist who oft times makes bold predictions and can be quite critical of the National Hurricane Center. He was, and think is; a contributor to FOX NEWS and, I believe; a non-believer in global warming (which opens up even more controversy, except on Fox!)
He is very knowledgeable and polarizing with a large following.
They oft times quote him and are quite proud in pointing out when he is correct and similarly silent when he is wrong.

On S2K he is a bit polarizing since he is quoted a lot and people then want to take swipes at him and his followers.
S2K frowns upon this as he IS a Pro Met and therefore deserving of even more respect than the typical member of S2K.
There is a code of conduct for how everyone is to be treated and deservedly it ramps up for the Pro's as without them, this is merely just another site!

Hopefully, you know a little more about him and the article in Wikipedia and the reference list at the bottom of the article can provide even more insight!