ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#141 Postby **painkillerr** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 1:32 pm

Cat 1 hurricane entering PR in 126 hours! I'm not smiling.

#142 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 1:32 pm

Aric,how do you see the system developing in terms of having a well defined LLC?

Aric Dunn · #143 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 1:32 pm

Been really busy last few days. but from the looks of it this afternoon it should be a depression late tomorrow or early wed. ( technically probably tomorrow but they will likely wait unless it has some solid convection that maintains)

SouthFLTropics · #144 Postby **SouthFLTropics** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 1:33 pm

Looking at that 120 hour EURO image I notice a couple of things. A low in the BOC and a trough draped across North Florida. Looks like a track South of the islands with a curve North at some point. The question is where???

SFT

KWT · #145 Postby **KWT** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 1:36 pm

The trouble with this system is any system forming in the BoC/Gulf could well cause a forecast headache down the line...other then that I'd be surprised if this wasn't a threat to land down the line...

#146 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 1:37 pm

12z Euro 144 hours. Passes just south of Puerto Rico. Excellent agreement with the GFS. Bermuda ridge building :eek:

#147 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 1:38 pm

05/1800 UTC 9.8N 30.2W T1.5/1.5 95L

#148 Postby **painkillerr** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 1:42 pm

This has trouble written all over it. It's difficult to imagine that we may have two hurricanes over Puerto Rico in the same season.

#149 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 1:43 pm

12z Euro 168 hours, crossing Hispaniola....ridging to the north.

But what is that in the Gulf. That could deflect this away from the CONUS maybe.

Ridge a little weaker than the 00z, could be an Irene redux.

clfenwi · #150 Postby **clfenwi** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 1:45 pm

18Z best track

AL, 95, 2011090518, , BEST, 0, 94N, 314W, 25, 1009, LO,

Aric Dunn · #151 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 1:45 pm

cycloneye wrote:Aric,how do you see the system developing in terms of having a well defined LLC?

it already does. although its a little elongated and still a little attached the ITCZ but at the rate its organizing today it wont take long to become more organized.

this should be a significant threat to the lesser and greater Antilles. strength may be inhibited do to a ull low that looks like it will be moving slowly and will likely keep shear over the system after the next couple of days

#152 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 1:46 pm

painkillerr wrote:This has trouble written all over it. It's difficult to imagine that we may have two hurricanes over Puerto Rico in the same season.

I also have a bad feeling about this one. Can you imagine if that occurs after we endured the Irene landfall? But history shows that PR has been thru more than one landfall on a season in the 1800's.

#153 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 1:49 pm

Looks like it is going into the Bahamas and will stay east of Florida on 12z 192hour Euro.

Same as Irene and Emily....just not enough ridging.

Same pattern.

#154 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 1:49 pm

18z Best Track

AL, 95, 2011090518, , BEST, 0, 94N, 314W, 25, 1009, LO

KWT · #155 Postby **KWT** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 1:50 pm

Into the Bahamas as a weak storm, would imagine the system in the Gulf could well play a part in where 95L goes on this run...

Odds are looking quite good though that this comes close if not into the Caribbean based on tonights 12z runs...

Really wierd looking ECM run IMO...

HurricaneRobert · #156 Postby **HurricaneRobert** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 1:50 pm

This tracks to the Hebert Box - threat to Leeward Island, PR, Florida.

clfenwi · #157 Postby **clfenwi** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 1:51 pm

TAFB's estimate was 9.8N 31.4W 1.5/1.5. Either continuity or some form of evidence caused the best track position to be further south than the Dvorak estimates.

KWT · #158 Postby **KWT** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 1:52 pm

Yeah models are slow to strengthen this system which does rather suggest they see probably shear being an issue in the short-medium term.

HurricaneMaster_PR · #159 Postby **HurricaneMaster_PR** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 1:54 pm

TAFB Surface Forecast 72 hrs

#160 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 1:54 pm

12Z Euro 216 hours. Misses Florida to the east, but not by much.

Remarkably excellent agreement with the 12z GFS

ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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