
ATL: LEE - Remnants - Discussion
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

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- South Texas Storms
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models
Macrocane wrote::eek: Impressive how all the global models (CMC, ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET and FIM are the ones I checked) are bullish with the intensity of the system in the 12z runs, and it's also impressive the different tracks they have, sure this will be a very difficult system to forecast intensity-wise and track-wise.
Macrocane, can I please have a link to the FIM model?
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18z GFS +72


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Re:
Annie Oakley wrote:Gonna be nerve-wracking to watch developments.....trying not to get too excited.
I'm not getting excited at all. If it does turn into something I'd be surprised if Central Texas gets anything from it.
Hope I'm wrong tho~
Last edited by Shoshana on Wed Aug 31, 2011 6:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models
Ivanhater wrote:ROCK wrote:well if you follow the CLIPER then the GFS is right on....![]()
personally you see the EURO in the short term 2 runs in a row depicting the same trek really hard to go against it....especially with all the GFS issues we have seen.....
To be fair Rock, the 12z Euro was very close to getting picked up by the trough. It even starts the process by moving east between 72 and 96 hours. The trough has more of an influence on it even more so than the 00z run. 12z Euro ensembles are split between taking it SW or NE.
What I can tell you is this one will be a Gulf system
yeah I saw the ensembles...I like poking at you..


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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models
South Texas Storms wrote:Macrocane, can I please have a link to the FIM model?
Sometimes they run the model with different initial conditions and other parameters so I will give you two links:
Today the ran the FIMY: http://fim.noaa.gov/FIMscp/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=fimy
But most of the times they run the FIM http://fim.noaa.gov/FIMscp/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=fim
Last edited by Macrocane on Wed Aug 31, 2011 5:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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- Ivanhater
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models
ROCK wrote:Ivanhater wrote:ROCK wrote:well if you follow the CLIPER then the GFS is right on....![]()
personally you see the EURO in the short term 2 runs in a row depicting the same trek really hard to go against it....especially with all the GFS issues we have seen.....
To be fair Rock, the 12z Euro was very close to getting picked up by the trough. It even starts the process by moving east between 72 and 96 hours. The trough has more of an influence on it even more so than the 00z run. 12z Euro ensembles are split between taking it SW or NE.
What I can tell you is this one will be a Gulf system
yeah I saw the ensembles...I like poking at you....BTW welcome back...You have been MIA....
It's what we do Rock

Thanks, just some personal things going on.
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12z GFS +96 (inland over LA)


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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models
Macrocane wrote:South Texas Storms wrote:Macrocane, can I please have a link to the FIM model?
Sometimes they run the mdoels with different initial conditions and other parameters so I will give you two links:
Today the ran the FIMY: http://fim.noaa.gov/FIMscp/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=fimy
But most of the times they run the FIM http://fim.noaa.gov/FIMscp/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=fim
Thanks. That's why the FIM didn't run today. The FIMY ran today. Haha.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models
[quote="Ivanhater"]84 hours..sitting over New Orleans
That might lead to a possible flooding scenario. I remember my house in NOLA almost flooding during Allison which was sitting near Houston.
The above post is not official nor scientific, please refer to NHC for official information
That might lead to a possible flooding scenario. I remember my house in NOLA almost flooding during Allison which was sitting near Houston.
The above post is not official nor scientific, please refer to NHC for official information
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models
sitting over NO is the same as the 12Z run.....so it comes down to what model camp your in.....one that desperately needs rain in Texas or one that floods NO.... 

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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion
Reminds me of Tropical Storm Frances in 1998.
Tropical Storm Frances (1998)
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/r ... s1998.html
Frances did move west-southwest and made landfall near Rockport as a tropical storm. Heavy rain throughout Texas and Louisiana.
Tropical Storm Frances (1998)
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/r ... s1998.html
Frances did move west-southwest and made landfall near Rockport as a tropical storm. Heavy rain throughout Texas and Louisiana.
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12z GFS +120 (LoL Back out over the Gulf)


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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models
ROCK wrote:sitting over NO is the same as the 12Z run.....so it comes down to what model camp your in.....one that desperately needs rain in Texas or one that floods NO....
I think we are in the same camp Rock.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion
Do you all think this might pose a possible flooding event for south Louisiana? It doesn't take much rain to have standing water in the streets. Interesting few days ahead.
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12z GFS +144


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Disclaimer: 50% of the time I have no clue of what I am talking about. Chances are I am taking a less than educated guess that sounds good because 10 years ago I stole Mike Watkins book 'The Hurricane and its Impact'. For official information please direct yourself to the NHC and their cadre of weather geniuses.
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