ATL: KATIA - Post Tropical - Discussion

[SFLcane]

We might very well end up in the greek alphabet this season the way these things are spinning up this season but the main overall difference that sets apart 2005 in my view is the unprecedented parade of hurricane landfalls across the united states.

[TYNI]

Fish. Next.

I hope you are right... but a little early on the call, don't you think?

[TYNI]

Fish. Next.

Premature much?

This hasn't even developed. Heck, we aren't even sure it will ultimately develop at 10.5 N and not 8.5 N. And Bermuda is land.

I know the term "fish" can be insensitive but many who live in the CONUS consider a storm that does not strike the CONUS to be a "fish".
I know that if a storm affects any Islands, it is technically not a "fish".

Perhaps we can invent a new, more convoluted term like "CONUS Fish"????

How about NLIS - Non Land Impacting Storm

[Extratropical94]

We might very well end up in the greek alphabet this season the way these things are spinning up this season but the main overall difference that sets apart 2005 in my view is the unprecedented parade of hurricane landfalls across the united states.

And the overall storm intensity.
'05 was at 11/5/3 before Lee formed with having already had 2 Cat. 5s.
'11 is currently at 10/1/1 (before future-Katia) with only one hurricane, a Cat. 3.

That is the big difference.

[SFLcane]

We might very well end up in the greek alphabet this season the way these things are spinning up this season but the main overall difference that sets apart 2005 in my view is the unprecedented parade of hurricane landfalls across the united states.

And the overall storm intensity.
'05 was at 11/5/3 before Lee formed with having already had 2 Cat. 5s.
'11 is currently at 10/1/1 (before future-Katia) with only one hurricane, a Cat. 3.

That is the big difference.

An anomaly...Never to be duplicated.

[Scorpion]

Seriously, after Irene I do not trust long range models at all. The only thing that can be contrived from these runs is that there will be a powerful hurricane in a week. This has the potential to hit anywhere or go out to sea. It hasn't even formed yet so it's impossible to say if this will be a fish.

[Blown Away]

Wow, this could be a classic CV monster!! It seems over the past few years the troughing near the EC is so constant I wonder if we have entered into overall pattern change, the experts keep talking about landfalls and besides the rare NE CONUS run by Irene these storms get deflected well E of the CONUS or get deep into the Caribbean and drove W into the CA.

[HurricaneWarning92]

Besides that epic trough that dips like that in the Euro's latest run, doesnt even exist right now i believe...

[CourierPR]

I think we all need to be more selective in our use of adjectives, etc. when referring to developing systems and atmospheric influences , i.e. epic trough.

[Javlin]

Seriously, after Irene I do not trust long range models at all. The only thing that can be contrived from these runs is that there will be a powerful hurricane in a week. This has the potential to hit anywhere or go out to sea. It hasn't even formed yet so it's impossible to say if this will be a fish.

I am with ya!Anymore looking beyond 3 days is just unrealistic for the most part.

[TYNI]

Seriously, after Irene I do not trust long range models at all. The only thing that can be contrived from these runs is that there will be a powerful hurricane in a week. This has the potential to hit anywhere or go out to sea. It hasn't even formed yet so it's impossible to say if this will be a fish.

I am with ya!Anymore looking beyond 3 days is just unrealistic for the most part.

So let's step back 50 years, and not know anything until it's too late.

[Blown Away]

Just remember the same reliable models were predicting run after run a massive HP that was supposed to push Irene into the GOM.

[Javlin]

Seriously, after Irene I do not trust long range models at all. The only thing that can be contrived from these runs is that there will be a powerful hurricane in a week. This has the potential to hit anywhere or go out to sea. It hasn't even formed yet so it's impossible to say if this will be a fish.

I am with ya!Anymore looking beyond 3 days is just unrealistic for the most part.

So let's step back 50 years, and not know anything until it's too late.

Even the NHC states there 5-day cone has 250 miles of error possible built into it.Anyone can look at it but to go and say this will absolutely happen on day 5,6...... I've been burned to many times on believing long range models.

[hurr123]

I really hope this next storm turns into the Atlantic. The next storm is the replacement name for KATRINA. Living in South La., there is not a local newcast that can go one day without mentioning the "K" word.

[tolakram]

Howdy,

let's stick to model runs and take the discussion to the discussion thread. If you think a post does not belong please report it using the exclamation point button beside the post. Thanks!

[gone2beach]

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED INASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTHOF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEARCONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW...AND A TROPICALDEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 T0 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/index1.html

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTNT03 KNGU 282100
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 100NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.0N 20.0W TO 10.0N 23.5W WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF A NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE
WARNING AT THIS TIME. WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE ESTIMATED
TO BE 20 TO 25 KTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 28/1915Z INDICATES A
CIRCULATION CENTER MOVING WEST AT 10 TO 15 KTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS IS BECOMING ORGANIZED WITH CONCENTRATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
THE SYSTEM HAS SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW, AND WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 81 TO 83 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT WHICH MAY
ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
BY 292100Z.
//

[Ixolib]

If this one does develop today (on August 28th), we would only be running ONE system behind 2005.
Tropical storm Lee formed on 28/8/05.
So far we have seen 10 storms (Arlene through Jose), plus one depression: TD Ten.
2005 had 11 storms (Arlene through Katrina), plus one depression: TD Ten.
Interesting similarity, right?

I know this is too early to predict, but I vote for Greek!

And wasn't it TD10 that dissipated and then turned into TD13, which wasn't really TD13, but then turned into Katrina, or something like that???

[Blown Away]

TD/TS develops in this area expect fish IMO.

[DESTRUCTION5]

TD/TS develops in this area expect fish IMO.

What on that map gives you that Idea? lmao