ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[Gustywind]

2 PM TWD

000
AXNT20 KNHC 181745
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU AUG 18 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS ACROSS THE CENTRAL TRPCL ATLC
ALONG 17N39W TO THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 13N39W MOVING W 10-15
KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DISTINGUISHABLE LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW AROUND THE WAVE AXIS CONCENTRATED AT THE INTERSECTION WITH
THE MONSOON TROUGH. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE EXTENDING TO 20N. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 39W-43W.

[Vortex]

not to far from estimated center..pressures falling

SHIP S 1800 15.10 -40.10 66 355 70 17.1 - 6.6 2.0 - - 29.86 -0.06

[cycloneye]

HPC discussion:

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 39W AND SOUTH OF 19N IS A SYSTEM OF CONCERN.
THE NHC IS MONITORING THIS PERTURBATION FOR POSSIBILITY OF
TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS AND WILL ISSUE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE
WAVE IS TO ENTER THE ISLAND CHAIN ON DAY 03. AS RIDGE PATTERN
ESTABLISHES ALOFT...AND MJO CONDITIONS BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE...THIS IS LIKELY TO FAVOR RAIN SQUALLS AND HEAVY
CONVECTION. IN THIS AREA WE EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 40-80MM/DAY. AS IT ENTERS THE GUIANAS...THE WAVE
WILL FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM/DAY.

[Hurricaneman]

It seems as though this is slowly starting to organize and I wouldn't be suprised if this is risen to a 20% chance lemon

[Evenstar]

Disclaimer: I know this will turn out to be the all-time dumbest question EVER....but I'm gonna go for it and ask anyway:

What is the significance of WX such as in wxman57's name?

[Hurricaneman]

Disclaimer: I know this will turn out to be the all-time dumbest question EVER....but I'm gonna go for it and ask anyway:

What is the significance of WX such as in wxman57's name?

It mean weather, glad I could help

[Macrocane]

Disclaimer: I know this will turn out to be the all-time dumbest question EVER....but I'm gonna go for it and ask anyway:

What is the significance of WX such as in wxman57's name?

Weather I wondered the same thing when I first came to the board.

[Over my head]

viewtopic.php?f=61&t=95832

here's a list of acronyms I have found helpful!

[Evenstar]

Disclaimer: I know this will turn out to be the all-time dumbest question EVER....but I'm gonna go for it and ask anyway:

What is the significance of WX such as in wxman57's name?

Weather I wondered the same thing when I first came to the board.

Thanks guys! I guess the X was what was throwing me off!

[Evenstar]

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=61&t=95832

here's a list of acronyms I have found helpful!

Cool beans. Thanks!

[sunnyday]

After all of the interest in this storm and with all of the scary possibilities that are being discussed, do any of you feel that it will simply recurve or go poof? On the other hand, do any of you see this as likely to be a major hurricane? Thank you for your replies.

[Aric Dunn]

After all of the interest in this storm and with all of the scary possibilities that are being discussed, do any of you feel that it will simply recurve or go poof? On the other hand, do any of you see this as likely to be a major hurricane? Thank you for your replies.

recurve no.... poof possibly.. but more like 70/30 in favor of development. if it develops than a major is possible.

[KWT]

Look farther west - 14N/41.3W.

Yep, still seems to me to be on a boradly 275-280 track...

Gonna be a close call as to whether it ends up developing all that much before Hispaniola...though the models do seem to have enough agreement for there to probably be a TD/weak TS by that point.

[sunnyday]

Thank you, Aric.

[OuterBanker]

97L is already further north than 93L so I don't think it will take a pure west route. What will be the biggest factor is how far north will it be when it gets to the islands. At present I don't think 280 will get it north enough. What is interesting is the intensity of the Euro in the gulf. How did it get so intense at that point? Seems like most models are shifting to the Gulf. That should ease tensions of the east coasters (I can put my tums back away). But, to be honest I have no idea what it's gonna do. One other thing. If attention remains in the Gulf it will not affect our business. Just the thought of a storm heading our way causes cancellations.

[caneseddy]

97L is already further north than 93L so I don't think it will take a pure west route. What will be the biggest factor is how far north will it be when it gets to the islands. At present I don't think 280 will get it north enough. What is interesting is the intensity of the Euro in the gulf. How did it get so intense at that point? Seems like most models are shifting to the Gulf. That should ease tensions of the east coasters (I can put my tums back away). But, to be honest I have no idea what it's gonna do. One other thing. If attention remains in the Gulf it will not affect our business. Just the thought of a storm heading our way causes cancellations.

I think NC and points north are safe, IMO. This is a SE US/Gulf storm based on the upcoming synoptics and model runs

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[SouthFLTropics]

Circulation on visible sat. looks extremely impressive but on IR it still is lacking any deep convection. I'll be interested to see what happens when it does start to pop some convection and see if it is able to maintain it. Where this thing sets up shop will ultimately determine where it goes downstream. Subtle changes right now can have major impacts down the road. What fork will it take??? North of the big islands, South of the big islands, or through the big islands???

SFT

[SunnyThoughts]

Well, this may end up being a big and bad badddddd girl. Just thrilled Saturday is going off without a hitch here on p'cola beach ( daughter getting married.) Lots of late nights watching models with this young lady for sure ( assuming she develops, which there doesn't seem to be much dispute about). My homeowners insurance is due around the end of September. I was going to pay it early. I think I'll just wait it out now and see what happens. (crossing fingers all goes well for everyone, ( the islands included) we sure don't need any kind of catastrophic event of any kind considering the state of our economy.)

[cycloneye]

North of the big islands, South of the big islands, or through the big islands???

That will be the key queston for folks downstream in the CONUS.

[SouthFLTropics]

A lot of discussion has been made that this "COULD" be the first major to impact the US this year. If I'm not mistaken this "COULD" be the first major to impact the CONUS since Ike in 2008. It has been a while for sure. That is sure to get the media hyped up into a frenzy!!!

SFT