ATL: Ex INVEST 92L - Discussion

[South Texas Storms]

tried the sfwmd models page....not showing 92L..do they not have it posted yet?

This invest was deactivated a few hours ago.

[cycloneye]

If this keeps up,they may have to reactivate the invest.

[NDG]

I think that the pattern will change - the ridge will move out - but it may take the transition toward fall in the first few weeks of September to open up the NW Gulf.

I sure hope for all of you in TX that it changes eventually, you may not need a hurricane but you desperate need the rains from a tropical system.

How's Orlando doing right now in terms of drought conditions?

Like CronkPSU said is not too bad for the most part here in the interior parts of central FL. A lot of our lakes are getting back to normal.
This summer so far the blocking ridge has been to our N & W, so we have been in a weakness more often than not for afternoon storms to get going without a problem.

[Kory]

The 18z GFS keeps this an open wave all the way till the central/western Caribbean where it develops it into a rigorous tropical system. It then crosses the Yucatan and goes into Northern Mexico. Its been persistent on bringing this system to Mexico, but any slight deviation of the high to the east or north, Texas maybe affected. Long way away...


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[South Texas Storms]

The 18z GFS keeps this an open wave all the way till the central/western Caribbean where it develops it into a rigorous tropical system. It then crosses the Yucatan and goes into Northern Mexico. Its been persistent on bring this system to Mexico, but any slight deviation of the high to the east or north, Texas maybe affect. Long way away...


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Yep I agree. We will have to wait and see.

[Rgv20]

Thru Saturday Morning the 18zGFS&12zECMWF have the wave tracking about the same speed and location 13N 35W and then the Euro loses the wave completely.

12zGFS has the wave reaching the Lesser Antilles by next Monday night (Aug16) and about 12hrs faster than the 18zGFS.

[Rgv20]

CIMSS analysis as of 0z08-09-2011 shows some strong 850mb vorticity with ex92L south of the CV Islands around 24W. I'm still interested to see what kind of shape this wave is going to be when it reaches 55W on Monday or Tuesday as environmental conditions may be more favorable for development.

[cycloneye]

It has a low pressure per 06z surface analysis by TAFB.

[GCANE]

Today's FIM keeps this as a wave and then being recurved and dissipated when it reaches the east Carib due to a strong east-coast trough.

http://fim.noaa.gov/FIMscp/jsloop.cgi?dsKeys=fim:&runTime=2011080900&plotName=wind_850&fcstInc=360&numFcsts=41&model=fim&ptitle=Experimental%20FIM%20Model%20Fields&maxFcstLen=240&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=244&wjet=1

PREDICT Synopsis:

http://met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/synopses/s ... 080800.txt

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWD:

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 11N26W TO 19N23W MOVING W AT
10-15 KT. SHORTWAVE INFRARED METEOSAT-9 SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS A BROAD LOW TO MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE
VICINITY OF 12N27W...WHICH IS PRIMARILY A MONSOON TROUGH GYRE
ENCOMPASSING THE AREA FROM 08N-17N BETWEEN 21W-42W. THE WAVE IS
EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED DEEP-LAYERED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 10N-21N E OF
28W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN
26W-29W.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 091144
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE AUG 09 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 12N27W TO 18N26W MOVING W AT
10-15 KT. SHORTWAVE INFRARED METEOSAT-9 SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS A BROAD LOW TO MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE
VICINITY OF 12N27W AS A 1011 MB LOW...WHICH IS PRIMARILY THE
FOCUS OF THE MONSOON TROUGH GYRE ENCOMPASSING THE AREA FROM
08N-18N BETWEEN 18W-48W. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF
ENHANCED DEEP-LAYERED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LOCATED
OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 10N-21N E OF 30W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N-14N BETWEEN 26W-30W.

[blazess556]

Euro develops 92l near the end of the run

[Jevo]

our pal SAL seems to be waning a little bit over the Ctrl Atlantic compared to late last week.. save for that blob above PR/DR..

[HURAKAN]

Current State of the Tropics ... in my opinion!

[wxman57]

our pal SAL seems to be waning a little bit over the Ctrl Atlantic compared to late last week.. save for that blob above PR/DR..

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/splitEW.jpg

The dry air north of the eastern Caribbean may be more a result of the persistent ridge there (sinking air) vs. dry air from Africa.

[Jevo]

our pal SAL seems to be waning a little bit over the Ctrl Atlantic compared to late last week.. save for that blob above PR/DR..

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/splitEW.jpg

The dry air north of the eastern Caribbean may be more a result of the persistent ridge there (sinking air) vs. dry air from Africa.

That is just no mans land for anything that tries to get spinning up.. Not only did Emily have the problem of pulling in moisture over the Mtns of DR.. The air that it was gulping in had more dust than the Addams family mantle

[SouthDadeFish]

Nice circulation:



Still needs to break away from ITCZ though.

[cycloneye]

Still elongated.

[SouthDadeFish]

:uarrow: Still elongated.

Yeah I think that has to do a large part with still being attached to the monsoon trough.

[Aric Dunn]

ITs been about 24hrs and the convection is on the increase and the circulation is much improved. should be a slow go still but its on its way.