WPAC: SONGDA - Tropical Depression (1102/04W)

[ManilaTC]

LATEST JTWC WARNING:


** WTPN31 PGTW 220300 ***
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (SONGDA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 9.9N 136.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.9N 136.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 10.7N 135.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 11.2N 133.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 11.5N 132.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 11.9N 131.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 12.6N 129.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 14.8N 126.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 17.2N 124.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 10.1N 136.4E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W (SONGDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 80 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 15
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z, 221500Z, 222100Z AND 230300Z.//

[Chacor]

JMA's 00z three-day intensity five-day track forecast:

WTPQ50 RJTD 220000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1102 SONGDA (1102)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 220000UTC 09.5N 137.0E FAIR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 90NM
FORECAST
24HF 230000UTC 10.6N 134.4E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 240000UTC 11.3N 132.9E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 250000UTC 12.6N 130.8E 160NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
96HF 260000UTC 14.5N 128.6E 240NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
120HF 270000UTC 17.2N 126.3E 300NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT =

[cycloneye]

JTWC 00:00 UTC Track is very threatening for many people.

[StormingB81]

ECWMF shows a sharp turn at the point coming to Japan so I think everyone from PI to Japan needs to watch this...It could very well be close to SUper Typhoon Strength I mean right now it has it at around 135-160 mph at the peak

[GCANE]

Looks like it has gotten much wider now and PV is down to the surface.

[GCANE]

GFS takes it right over Honshu.

About the worst case scenario for spreading Fukushima radiation.

[Chacor]

Ouch. Yeah, wow, not good.

[Chacor]

Latest:

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[dexterlabio]

TPPN10 PGTW 220633

A. TROPICAL STORM 04W (SONGDA)

B. 22/0532Z

C. 10.1N

D. 136.3E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/06HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 44A/PBO LARGE CDO/ANMTN.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


SMITH

[StormingB81]

Wunderground.com computer models have it coming right near Okinawa....Im going to have no time all week so Yes I did my typhoon kit early and even if it doesnt come atleast I have a big container filled of stuff if one does come

[Chacor]

JMA up to 45 kt.

WTPQ50 RJTD 220600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1102 SONGDA (1102)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 220600UTC 09.5N 136.9E FAIR
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 90NM
FORECAST
24HF 230600UTC 10.4N 134.3E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 240600UTC 11.1N 132.9E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 250600UTC 12.6N 131.1E 160NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
96HF 260600UTC 14.9N 128.6E 240NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
120HF 270600UTC 17.6N 126.4E 300NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT =

[Chacor]

WTPQ30 RJTD 220600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 4 FOR TS 1102 SONGDA (1102)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE.
POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN.
3.MOTION FORECAST
POSITION ACCURACY AT 220600 UTC IS FAIR.
TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS THEN ACCELERATE.
TS WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS THEN MOVE TO NORTHWEST.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
TS WILL BE GRADED UP TO STS WITHIN 24 HOURS.
TS WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE NEAR CYCLONE CENTER HAS BECOME COLDER AND CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA.
FI-NUMBER WILL BE 4.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.=

[dexterlabio]

Another Songda threatens to batter Japan once again. (the other Songda struck Japan almost 7 years ago) Yeah it's good to be safe than sorry, preparing before anything gets worse is the best thing to do. For the Philippines, once this storm passes north, the SW monsoon would be induced thus officially starting the rainy season. Aere induced the monsoon somehow but it didn't last long maybe because of its limited strength, but Songda seems to have a promising intensity to start the rainy season here in the Philippines.

Well, new model runs from euro. Still consistent and in agreement with the other previous forecasts.

[phwxenthusiast]

now what is scary is that few computer models are actually trending westward, with some indicating a landfall in Luzon! (UKMET, NOGAPS). The EURO just brushes the NE Luzon. GFS also trended west throughout today. CMC remains the outlier, indicating an early recurvature (I don't buy that imo).

Very tense two days for the Philippines if you ask me.

[Extratropical94]

09Z JTWC warning: still at 45kt gusting to 55kt


WTPN31 PGTW 220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (SONGDA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z --- NEAR 10.0N 136.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.0N 136.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 10.6N 135.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 11.0N 133.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 11.4N 132.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 11.9N 131.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 13.1N 128.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 15.1N 126.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 17.9N 123.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 10.2N 136.1E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W (SONGDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PALAU, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS TIGHTLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTION
CONTINUING TO BUILD OVER THE CENTER. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED
ON THE 22/06Z PGTW SATELLITE ANALYSIS FIX AND INTERPOLATED FROM MSI
WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM KNES, RJTD, AND PGTW RANGING FROM 45 TO 55 KNOTS.
RECENT OBSERVATIONS FROM YAP AND PALAU, JUST EAST AND SOUTHWEST OF
THE SYSTEM RESPECTIVELY, AS WELL AS THE OVERALL STRUCTURE IN RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGERY (220446Z AMSRE) SUPPORT AN INTENSITY AT THE LOWER
END OF THIS RANGE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED IN A REGION OF STRONGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND LOW (10-15
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, WHILE POLEWARD OUTFLOW (THOUGH IMPROVING),
REMAINS SOMEWHAT LIMITED. TS SONGDA IS CURRENTLY STEERING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRACK GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU
48, BEFORE BEGINNING TO TURN POLEWARD AS AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH BEGINS TO WEAKEN THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE STR. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO STEADILY INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AS IT
CONTINUES TO TRACK OVER FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
WITHIN AN IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFS AND
GFDN, WHICH ARE AT THE OUTER EXTENTS OF THE AIDS ENVELOPE, BUT HAVE
TRENDED TOWARDS CONSENSUS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THIS FORECAST
REMAINS CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS (FAVORING ECMWF, NOGAPS, WBAR, AND
EGRR) AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
221500Z, 222100Z, 230300Z AND 230900Z.//
NNNN

[dexterlabio]

now what is scary is that few computer models are actually trending westward, with some indicating a landfall in Luzon! (UKMET, NOGAPS). The EURO just brushes the NE Luzon. GFS also trended west throughout today. CMC remains the outlier, indicating an early recurvature (I don't buy that imo).

Very tense two days for the Philippines if you ask me.

Yes I saw those. If the STR doesn't weaken too fast, then the threat in the PI increases. I also think that Songda might follow the track of Aere, travelling west (hitting or maybe making a short landfall on Eastern Luzon) then going north and recurving towards Okinawa. Well this is a slow moving storm and we have still some days to observe. :| Taiwan also could be under its threat.

[senorpepr]

WTPQ20 RJTD 220900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1102 SONGDA (1102)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 220900UTC 10.0N 136.3E FAIR
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 110NM
FORECAST
24HF 230900UTC 10.7N 134.1E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 240600UTC 11.1N 132.9E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
69HF 250600UTC 12.6N 131.1E 160NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =

[Typhoon Hunter]

Have any of the hurricane chasers (Typhoon Hunter,JTE5O) decided where to go to wait for maybe a big one to cover a landfall?

Well it's still potentially 5 or more days from landfall so too early yet. But if it were to clip NE Luzon Aparri would be best place to be based.

Glancing at the 00z models if I was in NE Philippines I'd be watching Songda very very closely.

UKMET slams it right into NE Luzon as a strong storm - http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ukm/fcst/archive/11052200/13.html

As does NOGAPS - http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ngp/fcst/archive/11052200/14.html

GFS has shifted to the west slightly but recurves away from Philippines but agrees on strong storm - http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs/fcst/archive/11052200/17.html

CMC going for pronounced turn and poleward track - http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/cmc/fcst/archive/11052200/23.html

ECMWF also take Songda as a very strong typhoon very very close to NE Luzon. Plenty of uncertainty in the model spread to be of concern.

[KWT]

System looks good, I'll be surprised if it doesn't get above 100kts at some point in its life cycle.

Models appear to be shifting westwards as well, I personally am favouring a very close call right now, not sure it'll make actual landfall but I'm sure Luzon will feel some effects to it.

Either way the models do all seem to agree on quite a powerful system developing, one that needs to be watched closely!