ATL : HARVEY - Tropical Depression - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11496
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - Discussion

#1381 Postby GCANE » Thu Aug 18, 2011 8:11 pm

West Cuba fired off some very heavy afternoon thunderstorms and the debris looks to be rotating into the ML dry air to 93L's east.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-wv.html

This could be the shot 93L needed.

Might have a nicely ramping up TC by sunrise.
0 likes   

ozonepete
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 4743
Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 3:23 pm
Location: From Ozone Park, NYC / Now in Brooklyn, NY

Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - Discussion

#1382 Postby ozonepete » Thu Aug 18, 2011 8:29 pm

:uarrow: Nice observation. You're becoming the maven here on mid-level moisture. It's amazing how many times people miss that key element for formation and survival of a TC. (Including myself too often.)
0 likes   

ozonepete
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 4743
Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 3:23 pm
Location: From Ozone Park, NYC / Now in Brooklyn, NY

Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - Discussion

#1383 Postby ozonepete » Thu Aug 18, 2011 8:34 pm

BTW, it was that (what appears to be) developing TUTT to the north and northeast of 93L that pushed the moisture southward towards its northern and eastern sides. And a TUTT to the northeast of a developing cyclone is advantageous for development because it helps vent the system at upper levels on the northeast side and thus helps an upper level anti-cyclone to develop.
0 likes   

User avatar
GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11496
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - Discussion

#1384 Postby GCANE » Thu Aug 18, 2011 8:39 pm

ozonepete wrote::uarrow: Nice observation. You're becoming the maven here on mid-level moisture. It's amazing how many times people miss that key element for formation and survival of a TC. (Including myself too often.)


Thanks Phil
0 likes   

User avatar
BigA
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 1317
Joined: Sun Jul 24, 2005 10:56 pm

Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - Discussion

#1385 Postby BigA » Thu Aug 18, 2011 8:42 pm

Looks to me like it has gained enough latitude so that it will get over the "knee" of Honduras and Nicaragua, though if it is only 20-50 miles north it won't strengthen much. Still expect a TC out of this.
0 likes   

User avatar
GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11496
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - Discussion

#1386 Postby GCANE » Thu Aug 18, 2011 8:45 pm

ozonepete wrote:BTW, it was that (what appears to be) developing TUTT to the north and northeast of 93L that pushed the moisture southward towards its northern and eastern sides. And a TUTT to the northeast of a developing cyclone is advantageous for development because it helps vent the system at upper levels on the northeast side and thus helps an upper level anti-cyclone to develop.



Agreed.

Also when a TC tracks into an anti-cyclone it allows the vorticity column to expand vertically since an anti-cyclone is a localized rise in the tropopause.

That in turn pulls the vorticity (PV anomaly) in radially causing the angular rotation to increase due to conservation of angular momentum.

The old spinning skater pulling his arms in analogy.

Anyway, that is in fact what appears to be happening with 93L at this time.
0 likes   

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38088
Age: 36
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - Discussion

#1387 Postby Brent » Thu Aug 18, 2011 8:53 pm

BEST TRACK: AL08, 154N 815W, 30kts, 1006mb, TD EIGHT
RENUMBER al93 al08
0 likes   
#neversummer

User avatar
GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11496
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - Discussion

#1388 Postby GCANE » Thu Aug 18, 2011 8:54 pm

Finally! Image

Getting a hot-tower firing. Its small and only lasted about 1/2 hr.; but, a solid sign 93L is ramping up.


Image
0 likes   

ozonepete
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 4743
Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 3:23 pm
Location: From Ozone Park, NYC / Now in Brooklyn, NY

Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - Discussion

#1389 Postby ozonepete » Thu Aug 18, 2011 9:15 pm

Yeah, finally. It has to be at least a TD. And Hondurans need to know about this.

Although it looks weak enough on the left semi-circle, which is climatologically what you expect, it still has the capability of causing dangerous rainfall and mudslides there.
0 likes   

ozonepete
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 4743
Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 3:23 pm
Location: From Ozone Park, NYC / Now in Brooklyn, NY

Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - Discussion

#1390 Postby ozonepete » Thu Aug 18, 2011 9:24 pm

Nice feeder band has developed, feeding moisture into the southeast quadrant.

Image
0 likes   

HurrMark
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 769
Joined: Tue Aug 12, 2008 10:18 pm
Location: Somerville, MA

Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - Discussion

#1391 Postby HurrMark » Thu Aug 18, 2011 9:32 pm

Now the question is whether it will get strong enough to get to Harvey or will remain an unnamed depression. Given the current latitude (15.4), the poor organization convectively speaking, and the fact that it isn't going to traverse much to the north, I will say that the chances are probably more likely than not that it will just stay TD Eight...just my opinion...not official. My guess is landfall by noon tomorrow.
0 likes   

ozonepete
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 4743
Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 3:23 pm
Location: From Ozone Park, NYC / Now in Brooklyn, NY

Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - Discussion

#1392 Postby ozonepete » Thu Aug 18, 2011 9:38 pm

With no shear to speak of, no mid-level dry air at all, the center staying north of Honduras, and it slowing down a lot over the next 24 hours, I would say a strong tropical storm close to a hurricane by the time it landfalls in Belize. The only negative is the proximity to land in Honduras, but the northwesterly winds pushing up against the mountains could actually enhance the circulation strength.
0 likes   

ozonepete
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 4743
Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 3:23 pm
Location: From Ozone Park, NYC / Now in Brooklyn, NY

Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - Discussion

#1393 Postby ozonepete » Thu Aug 18, 2011 9:44 pm

the big question is will it curve left into Honduras. That's why I'm dying to see the NHC track forecast.
0 likes   

HurrMark
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 769
Joined: Tue Aug 12, 2008 10:18 pm
Location: Somerville, MA

Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - Discussion

#1394 Postby HurrMark » Thu Aug 18, 2011 9:49 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011
1100 PM EDT THU AUG 18 2011

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 82.1W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM ENE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22978
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - Discussion

#1395 Postby wxman57 » Thu Aug 18, 2011 9:50 pm

It may be inland over Honduras by sunrise. NHC track has the center very near the coast of Honduras at 12Z. Could become a weak TS as it skirts along the coast of Honduras but that's about it.
0 likes   

User avatar
Tampa_God
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 333
Age: 35
Joined: Wed May 31, 2006 7:27 pm
Location: New Port Richey/Trinity, FL

Re: ATL : EIGHT - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1396 Postby Tampa_God » Thu Aug 18, 2011 9:53 pm

Min. Tropical Storm before slamming into Honduras/ South America? It's close, but it needs to get it's act together.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145300
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - Discussion

#1397 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 18, 2011 9:54 pm

ozonepete wrote:the big question is will it curve left into Honduras. That's why I'm dying to see the NHC track forecast.


Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

HurrMark
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 769
Joined: Tue Aug 12, 2008 10:18 pm
Location: Somerville, MA

Re: ATL : EIGHT - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1398 Postby HurrMark » Thu Aug 18, 2011 9:54 pm

Track takes it inland tomorrow morning...then slightly reemerges off that coastal area angles in a more southerly direction...may have a little time to become Harvey, but I think it's 50-50 at best...probably more 70-30 remains TD Eight in my opinion.
0 likes   

ozonepete
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 4743
Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 3:23 pm
Location: From Ozone Park, NYC / Now in Brooklyn, NY

Re: ATL : EIGHT - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1399 Postby ozonepete » Thu Aug 18, 2011 9:55 pm

Interesting. It makes TS after landfall. LOL.

Image
0 likes   

HurrMark
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 769
Joined: Tue Aug 12, 2008 10:18 pm
Location: Somerville, MA

#1400 Postby HurrMark » Thu Aug 18, 2011 9:57 pm

A recentering of the storm by even a few ticks of latitude northward could mean a world of difference...
0 likes   


Return to “2011”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests