ATL: IRENE - Models

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

sorry for the off topic. but we are awaiting the next model runs anyway.

Seriously though, why are some of the models allowing for a ramp up despite the land interaction? I suppose a large envelope would help maintain circulation despite interaction with high mountains, but if the storm is projected to move so slowly through the area, it seems like it would be greatly disturbed and almost have to start all over again when it finally cleared them.

If the storm spends a lot of time over hispanola and cuba, and heads due north into the penninsula, that shouldn't be so bad.

watch out central gulf coast if the weaker at first/continue west under cuba western models pan out though IMO.

[northjaxpro]

Yes Kory, But should the system at that time could deepen and develop a tight inner core and if that inner core somehow managed to stay off shore to the south to avoid the rugged terrain of Hispaniola and Eastern Cuba, then I would not see much of a disruption of the center. Now, rather or not the system deepens to that extent is another matter. We will wait to see what unfolds in the coming days

[AdamFirst]

NWS San Juan is pretty keen on this storm being close to them by Sunday night, even though none of the models suggest the center being close to Puerto Rico. Is that because the storm itself is so large? Or do they see something we don't?

[Frank2]

The always tend to err on the side of caution - it's not unusual for them to overstate things in their discussions...

[x-y-no]

NWS San Juan is pretty keen on this storm being close to them by Sunday night, even though none of the models suggest the center being close to Puerto Rico. Is that because the storm itself is so large? Or do they see something we don't?

I don't think it's that they're seeing anything we don't. But they're in the threat area and it's fairly short time until they could be affected, so it makes sense for them to take it real seriously.

[Vortex]

H+72 Landfall over DR



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_072l.gif

[northjaxpro]

sorry for the off topic. but we are awaiting the next model runs anyway.

Seriously though, why are some of the models allowing for a ramp up despite the land interaction? I suppose a large envelope would help maintain circulation despite interaction with high mountains, but if the storm is projected to move so slowly through the area, it seems like it would be greatly disturbed and almost have to start all over again when it finally cleared them.

If the storm spends a lot of time over hispanola and cuba, and heads due north into the penninsula, that shouldn't be so bad.

watch out central gulf coast if the weaker at first/continue west under cuba western models pan out though IMO.

Be careful about assumptions like this. Dont forget, Hurricane Georges went right directly over Hispaniola and still went on to restrengthen into a Cat 2 cyclone as it went past Key West. Also, although it did not achieve Hurricane staus(although some still debate that), Tropical Storm Fay hovered over Hispaniola fo nearly 2 days, then stregthened to a potent 70 mph after making landfall across Southern FL.

Systems can and have in the past recovered from being over Hispaniola. Just wanted to remind you of this.

[Kory]

sorry for the off topic. but we are awaiting the next model runs anyway.

Seriously though, why are some of the models allowing for a ramp up despite the land interaction? I suppose a large envelope would help maintain circulation despite interaction with high mountains, but if the storm is projected to move so slowly through the area, it seems like it would be greatly disturbed and almost have to start all over again when it finally cleared them.

If the storm spends a lot of time over hispanola and cuba, and heads due north into the penninsula, that shouldn't be so bad.

watch out central gulf coast if the weaker at first/continue west under cuba western models pan out though IMO.

Be careful about assumptions like this. Dont forget, Hurricane Georges went right directly over Hispaniola and still went on to restrengthen into a Cat 2 cyclone went it went past Key West. Also, although it did not achieve Hurricane staus(although some still debate that), Tropical Storm Fay hovered over Hispaniola fo nearly 2 days, then stregthened to a potent 70 mph after making landfall across Southern FL.

Systems can and have in the past recovered from being over Hispaniola. Just wanted to remind you of this.

But these are exceptions. How many other hurricanes went over Hispaniola and Cuba and didn't strengthen?

[lonelymike]

Here's a 12Z model plot I made. If it takes that route, then it would be hard to be a strong hurricane when it hit south Florida. Could be a hurricane, though.

There's your 12z models.

[northjaxpro]

sorry for the off topic. but we are awaiting the next model runs anyway.

Seriously though, why are some of the models allowing for a ramp up despite the land interaction? I suppose a large envelope would help maintain circulation despite interaction with high mountains, but if the storm is projected to move so slowly through the area, it seems like it would be greatly disturbed and almost have to start all over again when it finally cleared them.

If the storm spends a lot of time over hispanola and cuba, and heads due north into the penninsula, that shouldn't be so bad.

watch out central gulf coast if the weaker at first/continue west under cuba western models pan out though IMO.

Be careful about assumptions like this. Dont forget, Hurricane Georges went right directly over Hispaniola and still went on to restrengthen into a Cat 2 cyclone went it went past Key West. Also, although it did not achieve Hurricane staus(although some still debate that), Tropical Storm Fay hovered over Hispaniola fo nearly 2 days, then stregthened to a potent 70 mph after making landfall across Southern FL.

Systems can and have in the past recovered from being over Hispaniola. Just wanted to remind you of this.

But these are exceptions. How many other hurricanes went over Hispaniola and Cuba and didn't strengthen?

I was simply making the point that systems that go over Hispaniola and Cuba can still restrengthen. It is not impossible whatsover. Exceptions or not, there are documented records of storms that have done this.

[Incident_MET]

That is a surprisingly tight cluster considering a re-curving system. Looks like a good deal of land interaction however when considering intensity.

[Vortex]

One of the stronger runs of the NAM I've ever seen, also notice the weakness over FL at the end of the run....I'D say eastern cuba and the entire peninsula of FL had better keep very close tabs on future "Irene"


NAM Loop:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Typhoon_Willie]

I remember Hurricane Cleo (1964) took that route. We had winds of about 100 mph here in West Palm Beach.

[jlauderdal]

funny how the model thread turned into an evacuation thread this morning

[gatorcane]

Updated models. TVCN (consensus of the models) through metro South Florida.

[Kory]

You can throw all these models out...now when the hurricane hunters put the data in, we shall see what happens.

[robbielyn]

yeah well like treasureisland girl said we were waiting for models to update anyhow just passing the time. really if this discussion is important we can carry it over on the discussion thread goes without sayin

[Ivanhater]

Remember Gator the Canadian, Canadian ensembles UKMET and Euro ensembles are quite a but further west than that map with BAMS. Also note the GFS ensembles are further west than the operational as well. Point being there is not as tight of a consensus as that map may indicate and the ensembles hint at some west shifts possible.

[Weatherboy1]

Just worth keeping in mind that we're still six days out on this thing, most likely. A lot can change and by Monday afternoon, we'll have a much better idea on where this potential "Irene" will end up. As others have noted, a difference of 100 miles or so means a northern Gulf landfall vs. FL peninsula. Ironic though that it's another Irene, considering the 1999 storm with the same one decided to visit us in South Florida!

[ConvergenceZone]

How many other hurricanes went over Hispaniola and Cuba and didn't strengthen?

Yea, I really wish they would fix the code/algorthims behind some of these models to allow for weakening due to land interaction...I'm not sure why
they don't have that built into the models. I don't get it. It just gives people a false sense of strength as if the islands don't even exist.


Even with land interaction though, it's still possible to have a strong tropical storm or even hurricane(as WXMAN Stated Earlier) hit Florida.
I'm not talking about one of those really rare instances where a storm just didn't weaken much.